MCR wrote:

GOLD AND OIL PRICES

I've seen a few postings the lead me to think that panic and fear are creeping into people's thinking. Perhaps I haven't been clear enough. And let me say that everyone should take a breath. This is going to be a long process and there's too much urgency creeping in to people's thinking. If you cave in now you won't stand a chance against what's yet to come.

GOLD

For the longer term (maybe 30-50 years) I do agree that gold by itself may not be a permanent answer to anything. It may prove to be but my vision doesn't reach that far. From 2004 through the present day, however, I have recognized something that many don't seem to grasp and I have said it clearly in my lectures and writings.

Too many people see that the end of the petroleum-industrial age is here and are planning and preparing to live in a post-petroleum world. That is a big mistake. It's great to start repairing your soil, plant a vegetable garden, reduce debt etc. But what lies before us is what I have called the "Transition Period" -- a period of turbulence, uncertainty, possibly violence, and massive social and economic dislocation. However money will be defined in the future, it will most certainly have to have one quality. It must be tied and limited bysomething tangible that is also finite -- like energy is. Historically, over maybe six thousand years, gold has been that accepted refuge and it still is. The thing with gold is that it is known, recognized and accepted already. Consider the advantage of gold as opposed to say, trying to get people to accept something new as money. That work is already done with gold. Of all the options available, I have chosen gold as a PART of my plan to survive the"Transition Period" because if one doesn't get through that phase,whatever follows is moot. This is not for just the "rich and famous" as someone said. Anyone can start buying small amounts of gold for a few hundred dollars. No, one cannot eat gold. But one can carry it. One can measure it. One can trust that it is what it is; an unreactive metal that is always the same weight and same measure. One can trade gold for other things. It doesn't require someone to go and look up in tables or other material to find out what it is. It is simple and it is universally recognized as a store of value. Gold is part of a recommended mix of many survival needs, not the only thing I recommend. During the transition period it will offer choices that few other commodities, with similar characteristics will. It is by far not the only tool in my tool kit, nor should it be in yours.

OIL PRICES

I guess I am a little disappointed that so many folks don't seem to understand what's happening with oil prices. It's been on the map for a long time. TPTB are losing their control as must happen as the paradigm shifts. The $147 price seen this summer broke the backs of over-extended consumers. Demand destruction was too successful. Everything that has happened since was triggered by that, and I repeat that I believe the July price spike was intentionally induced.The collapse hasn't even begun to hit home. Millions more are going to be unemployed and the business shut downs have only just begun. The trickle-down effect hasn't fully hit home. The economy has crashed so far, so fast, that even plummeting oil prices aren't reigniting consumption. Unemployed people don't drive as much no matter what the gas price is and they won't until they have a job again. The problem is that most of them won't have jobs again. All the economic predictions are saying that waves of shutdowns, layoffs and firings are still coming. Airlines are almost giving away seats because flights are getting empty. I just talked to someone at the dog park who flew round trip to NY for $349 two weeks ago. Then I spoke to someone who had just bought a roundtrip to Chicago for only $179. As all the Peak Oil experts have been saying for years, a collapse in oil prices is a very bad thing that makes the so-called Bumpy Plateau look like the Rocky Mountains. Why? It de-inecentivizes investment in alternative energies and delays any efforts to wean ourselves from oil. Oil below a certain price makes it no longer economical to invest in wind, solar, tar sands, deepwater or any of the more expensive alternatives and the things that can tide us over. Those regimes are already showing signs of shutting down. A couple of years ago Matt Simmons suggested to me that setting a floor of $100 for oil was a good thing. I agreed completely. We must have some stability to prepare. It is clear now that falling oil prices are not going to stabilize the economy, so we shouldn't look there. They are only going to make the future less safe for all of us. That being said, the recents hints that OPEC may cut production are a good thing. They will help conserve a resource for which we still haven't got an alternative.