Monday, October 27, 2008

MCR wrote:

CITIGROUP -- MARKETWATCH PUTS SOME WRITING ON THE WALL

Dagnabit, at least we know who said it first.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B58fa552e-05b7-4f2e-b0f5-7dd531f414cb%7D&link=www.247wallst.com/2008/10/citigroup-c-won.html

That Harvard economist; the one they have called a prophet for prodicting all that I predicted... He will get his rewards in consulting fees and prizes. My success has been measured, from the start, by the number of lives we saved.

His story is remarkably similar to mine. I had never heard of him until today. I wonder if he's been reading me and -- if I thought it was worthwhile -- I'd might go see who wrote which stories first.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5014463.ece
*********************
JO wrote:

Nouriel Roubini's articles have appeared in Le Metropole Cafe for many months, if not years. He broke into the mainstream in August with a profile in the New York Sunday Times Magazine.

It would seem that while his predictions were accurate, he made the mistake of timing them too precisely so that people who fixated on the dates alone triumphantly pronouced him wrong.

Dates are obviously the hardest aspect of predictions to pin down. It's a mistake to try to predict on the micro-level; there are too many unknowns and variables. And critics who don't understand the general principles one is promoting instead focus on minutiae, looking for trouble.

The Daily Reckoning, for instance, dispenses with dates but says that the DOW will hit the bottom at around 5000. It then performs the far greater service of explaining why it thinks so.

And the metaphors are worth everything: "a combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the early 2000s produced a huge party in the financial sector, with most of the liquor coming from residential mortgages. Banks all over the world got in the bubbly spirit. Too bad. Now, they’re all reporting in sick and calling the doctor."

Of course Mike's PG 13-rated description the other day was the sickness metaphor to end all sickness metaphors, literally.

22 comments:

Pandabonium said...

How many times have I read an excellent article with which I agreed wholeheartedly but was disappointed because the author did not integrate an important element? For example, an article about finance which omits the impact of peak oil, or one about peak oil which omits the trend toward a fascist political climate. If we are to navigate through the many pitfalls that lay in the path ahead, we have to be aware of them all or at least equipped to spot them as they come, and you sir, were unique in forewarning us of them all.

Mike, you were the first person I came across who integrated so many elements into a comprehensive world view, and thus have proved right over these many years. It is why I donated heavily to the early ads you ran in newspapers (the "man behind the curtain" ads). Very few others have followed.

So when someone else pops up with a correct view on one or two issues it is refreshing, but sadly they usually miss some other aspect which makes their overall view flawed.

I'm not writing this to flatter, just stating a fact. We still desperately need people who can keep all the elements in focus at once. I'm still looking for them and very grateful that you are still here.

The Fiddler said...

Mike,

Thanks for all the work you've done over the years. I discovered FTW during the winter of 2004, and then had a mental break down. At the time I was in college. Scared for my future, I changed my major to Sustainable Agriculture (was Law), and proceeded to learn how to grow food. Little did I know at the time that I was at one of the best schools for that subject in the country. Luck, I guess.

Fortune also smiled on me when I inherited arable land from my dad. I took some time off of school to learn how to grow enough food to feed myself for a year (I'll be eating lots of potatoes someday soon). And now that I've graduated I find myself working part time for little money so that I can focus as much time as possible on building a life boat as you suggested.

That's why I'm writing you today. With all that's going on in the financial world I'm grateful that I've followed your advice up to this point. I have a bit of silver safely hidden at home. Some more precious metals in a safe deposit box at the local bank. Enough grain to last my dog and I a couple months. And I'm doing what I can to make friends and be involved with the local community. The transition to country life has been hard! But I'm veering off topic.

Mike, and I pose these questions to your readers as well: How soon til we see people starving in the streets? How safe is gold in the bank, really...Should I be burying it instead? And finally, do you believe we will see Nazi style concentration camps in the USA? This last question is especially pertinent to me as I was born with a physical disability.

Again Mike, thank you for your guidance over these last few years. I would be lost otherwise. And thank you for your thoughts on these questions. I wish I lived near LA so I could offer you lunch and share thoughts.

getonid said...

Scott Loper`s humble beginnings is very similar to Mike`s

http://www.pyrabang.com/view.php?ref=getonid&post_id=4795

sunrnr said...

Mike,

Thank you for being a voice of reason in these turbulent times. Being in the energy industry for 30 plus years, I've seen the waste of time, money and resources going after the short-term money maker, oil. I was involved in alternate energy research as well as clean technologies that can be used for coal fired power plants. All of these have disappeared from the scene, due in a large part I believe to the large oil lobbies and the "it costs too much compared to oil" argument.

It seems to be a human failing not to look far to the future on a daily basis to see where we need to go and what we need to do to get there. We're focused too much on the past and the fleeting present. When we run up to the edge of the cliff, all we can do is scratch our heads and wonder "how did we get here?".

That said, I have an inkling of what you've gone through to try and help us to understand what's going on and why. I've tried numerous times to present your information and warnings only to be dismissed as a nut and to have my postings "mysteriously" disappear. Not "deleted" like you see in some blogs, but totally disappear. Very scary.

I guess the lemmings in the back of the pack can't see where the lead lemmings are headed and don't seem to care.

namaste

Peter J. Nickitas said...

Mike:

Here's a link that indicates the first toe of the Russian shoe to drop in the wake of the People's Daily story.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=a_iqc4c3XXpM

PM Putin calls for more use of national currencies. That would be great for the United States -- once the Federal Reserve is made the fiscal agent of the United States Treasury and Greenbacks are issued in lieu of Federal Reserve Notes.

I do not know where I saw it first, but Mr. Hubbert of Peak Oil fame also stated that nothing will change until the nature of money is changed first.

Has anyone read the bill entitled the American Monetary Act of 2008 who can comment it?

Peter J. of Minneapolis

Peter J. Nickitas said...

The Russian shoe that falls after the Chinese shoe...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=a_iqc4c3XXpM

NBPatton said...

Wow, markets just closed. The 2nd biggest increase ever point wise, Up 889.

Pump and Dump baby, pump and dump.

I really hope this increase isn't from your average American "bargain" hunting,... poor ignorant bastards... This looting is so painful to watch. And it is just as infuriating. I channel that energy into wake people up.

God save the Republic!

ES355GIBSON said...

Mike - did you see the markets today? 900+ gain?

Is this purely the bailout $ going into the banks?

If so - I think this will be another hill (big hill at that) and tomorrow (Wed) it will go back down...


The economy is like a motor leaking oil - "They" keep adding oil and keeps leaking, eventually they will think it's ok for awhile and BOOM, the motor locks up and destroyed.


I work in the used car finance industry and the drop of used car dealers financing is out of this world.. Nobody (dealers or consumers) are buying anything!

Even if the dealers get the customers, the financing arm of the industry will not accept anyone. As of today, 10.28.08 - USA and Canada has a 12% approval rating!!!! 2 years ago we were going strong with 85% approval rating.

djmagic said...

Also wondering about censorship on this blog...
I have had 3 comments and two messages to administrator neither posted nor responded to, though none contained offensive content, combative language, or any links to outside information whatsoever.
As much as I appreciate and value the work and discourse here, it seems as though my participation is being discouraged and I can't discern why. What gives?

Rice Farmer said...

There's really nothing I can add to the point that Pandabonium and others are making here. I guess I can just add my voice. Few people see the complex connections among money, resources, military actions, drugs, energy, and the other forces that move the world. That's why so many analyses get only part of the picture, and fail to completely illuminate the motives of elites. Therein lies the value of the "road map."

FTW admin said...

dj magic
i see two comments from you on page one of 'comments to be moderated.' one asks that it not be published. the other asks that only part be published. at this point i can't copy and paste from that one.

there are lots of other comments from various people that have yet to be moderated. i have no idea why they didn't come to me first. i only publish or reject comments; i never deliberately send them to the no-man's-land of non-response.

FTW admin said...

dj magic
i see two comments from you on page one of 'comments to be moderated.' one asks that it not be published. the other asks that only part be published. at this point i can't copy and paste from that one.

there are lots of other comments from various people that have yet to be moderated. i have no idea why they didn't come to me first. i only publish or reject comments; i never deliberately send them to the no-man's-land of non-response.

FTW admin said...

dj magic

i can't respond to private emails bcs addresses don't come thr'u' on blogger. but i'll relay your message.

agape wins said...

Several of you still do not get
Program Trading and it's affect
on any market it is trading in.

A good program will make money,
even in a falling market, as I
did in the 80's "depression", or
falling market!
A program can move the market up,
down, or stop it, with the proper
backing, resources, & determination.
If done properly there is little actual movement of money,
just the sense of a Trade, which
will change again in hours or days!
The only ones who lose are those
who panic, & "Cash out"

Remember the restrictions on
Program Trading have all been
removed. Look up my last post
on the markets for the links!
Could this be where all the
GOLD & DRUGS are, it takes a lot
of Horsepower to drive a Program?

People are too narrow minded,
Think the big picture, everything is coming together or falling apart; as you please!

Think Togetherness, & Compassion.

Rice Farmer said...

Japan -- The word being used now to describe the angst over how financial institutions will look when their next quarterly financial reports come out in December is "December crisis."

Japan's biggest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ, has announced it will try to raise the equivalent of $10.6 billion in new capital to weather the storm, but this seems to have made people more jittery because everyone thought Japanese banks had plenty of cash to cover losses. Now that the 800-lb gorilla has in effect admitted its house is built on sand, the "December crisis" is taking on more immediacy by the day.

rocklicker said...

A good analogy for difficulty in predicting at the micro-level comes from geology/physics, specifically nuclear studies.

A radioactive element has a half-life and decays in a way that is statistically obvious. However, at the atomic level it is impossible to predict specifically which atom will decay when. But that doesn't mean there isn't a pattern discernible at the macro level. Decay is apparent, as you have less than you had before as time passes.

FTW admin said...

good metaphor, rocklicker, tho' scary to think we could be as random as quantum physics (which somebody is going to point out is not entirely the operative theory here.)

NBPatton said...

That's not entirely the operative theory there!

No need to thank me,...
Just doin my part.

NBPatton said...

After the .5 rate cut:
Oscilloscope or stock market, You decide!

Weeeeeee!!!

ES355GIBSON said...

Folks - question:


What happens when the ole' Fed has zero interest rate to cut?

We are at 1% - what happens at ZERO and the economy is still filling up the toilet?


I wonder what plan B is? or plan R or S is more like it!

Rice Farmer said...

Investors losing faith in Citigroup

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/29/news/companies/citigroup/index.htm?postversion=2008102915

"Citigroup right now looks like it is still standing in a game of musical chairs where everyone else has a seat."

NBPatton said...

Gibson,
No clue! But its fun to guess.

Best case; paradigm shift. We toss out the fractional reserve system and from the ground up reform our current monetary, governmental, and energy philosophies, policies and practices. I envision going back to a solid anchoring in the constitution.

Worst case; let your imagination do that one, but I think a plausible BAD ending to this current transitional period would be the powers that be somehow stay in power through a long, deep, and ugly depression from which a fractional reserve/big government "2.0" emerges in which among other horrors, the sheeple of the world are some how convinced to happily give up most if not all of their civil liberties. Of course, Peak *pick A resource* will crash the party somewheres along that story line, you can let your imagination due that one.

Just my 2cents.

Rice Farmer: Thanks for the article, nice find.