Saturday, January 23, 2010

AN URGENT WARNING ON POSSIBLE COLLAPSE OF THE N. ATLANTIC CONVEYOR FROM IRELAND

Stan Nangle, a friend and member of the Irish Greens, has just sent me the following link showing that apparently the North Atlantic Conveyor belt has collapsed. That's the only thing that makes living in Europe possible. There was a lot of buzz about this in 2003-2004 (I think) when a DoD report was released warning that such an event was possible, even likely, as a result of global warming. Those stories were clear and vitually unanimous that such a collapse would lead to a near-instant ice age for most of Europe. The fact that Ireland (and the rest of Europe) is having its coldest winter in a hundred years makes this a true emergency to evaluate. I don't have time to do this but thankfully I'm not the only map maker here any more.

The DoD stories will be easy enough to find for old hands. Most will remember them. If those stories then were accurate (as present circumstances suggest), then Haiti just became a minor traffic accident. But we have to be very thorough.

1. Find an analyze the DoD stories.
2. Confrm that the map below is accurate.
3. Is this a temporary condition? Has this happened before and then quickly reversed or restored?
4. What scenarios/responses have been evaluated and proposed if this occurred?

If I'm correct about the Dod stories then this map is very frightening. As I recall, there were some stories from 03 or 04 that even showed what this map shows right now. I think the first question to ask is whether this is temporary or not. It should be asked with the utmost urgency.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

MCR
**********************************************************************

Is Today the Day After Tomorrow?

Jenna Orkin

The North Atlantic Conveyor has attracted the attention of a broad spectrum of venues, from the lefty Monthly Review to Jeffrey Sachs at Columbia.

Preliminary research yields:

"It is believed that North Atlantic Deep Water formation has been dramatically reduced at times during the past (such as during the Younger Dryas or during Heinrich events), and that this might correlate with a decrease in the strength of the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic drift, in turn cooling the climate of northwestern Europe." (wikipedia)

“If a shutdown were to happen soon,” Richard Alley, who chaired the scientific team releasing the National Academy of Sciences study, observed in The Two-Mile Time Machine, “it could produce a large event, perhaps almost as large as the Younger Dryas, dropping northern temperatures and spreading droughts far larger than the changes that have affected humans through recorded history, and perhaps speeding warming in the far south. The end of humanity? No. An uncomfortable time for humanity? Yes.”

William Patterson of Saskatchewan University believes the mini Ice Age could take place in a matter of months, a Day After Tomorrow scenario.

According to The Monthly Reivew, in "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security" Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall argue that "rather than falling first and foremost on the global South the direct effects of a shutdown of the thermohaline conveyor would bear down on the global North—specifically those countries bordering the North Atlantic...In their scenario a “thermohaline circulation collapse” causes a drop in average surface temperature in northern Europe of up to 3.3°C (6°F) along with severe temperature drops throughout the North Atlantic, lasting about a century. Colder temperatures, wind and dryness in the global North are accompanied by increased warmth and drought in much of the rest of the world."

Headlines
U.S. sees long-term role in Haiti recovery
India on high alert as LeT buys para-gliding equipment (from Rice Farmer)
Indian airports on hijack alert (from Rice Farmer)
S.Korea orders lights out to boost birthrate
Conserving energy with Jevon's paradox on steroids.

War
Iraq war was illegal, lawyer will tell Chilcot inquiry
Israeli drones take over skies of Afghanistan (from Rice Farmer)
The real story of Guantánamo is beginning to emerge (from Rice Farmer)
Anthrax in heroin kills eight in Europe

Economy
Iceland's children paying for slump
N.Y. farmer kills 51 cows, commits suicide
Ron Paul's State of the Republic Address (from Rice Farmer)
9/11 Firemen in Haiti

Science/Health
Doctors attack NHS ban on robot surgeon
Lasers to beam energy from space

Gold
Miner to reveal extent of new gold reserves discovered in Fiji

48 comments:

wxdude714 said...

I wrote in the April of 2004 that the weather modification being done by the United States Air Force would lead to a major pattern shift in November 2004. That's when the Gulf Stream shut down for the first time and for an entire week. This shut down had major pattern implications during the summer and fall months of 2005(remember that it takes a few months for the gulf stream to travel from the US East Coast to Ireland and the North Sea), the weather patterns shifted driving multi-year sea ice out of the Arctic and producing the lowest arctic summer ice cap on record in 2006.
Weather modification exposes cracks within the system and this winter it is exposing the cracks of the just in time supply chain as well as the fresh water loading of the North Atlantic Conveyer Belt from the melting of the Greenland ice cap.
I think the issue moving forward is how much more melting of the Greenland Ice Cap can occur before the system shuts down entirely and we see a long term stop to the Gulf Stream Current off the US East Coast.
The major issue with that is that the materials used by the United States Air Force to modify the weather often heat up the atmosphere in the layer they are present. It's like paving the upper tropsphere with ashpalt. As the particle fall they warm the atmosphere in the layer they are present. As the particles fall over white snow pack/ice cap they warm the surface temperatures above freezing accelerating the snowpack/ice cap melt. Attempting to explain this to PhD scientists whom confuse this scenario as the same as "dirty snow" fail to understand the entire reasoning behind the increase in ice cap/snowpack melting, when models suggest otherwise. There are particles absorbing sunlight otherwise reflected back into space by the ice caps.

For the Boys said...

I'm confused. Where is the confirmation that this actually happened? Or am I not looking in the right place? (Which is probably the case)
So this is something that's happening right now? As in, today, this minute? That's what it sounds like.
Ugh. I've read so much in the last 2 weeks my head feels like it's going to explode! :P Going back to the drawing board to find the piece to this puzzle.

Howlin_Dog said...

Probably the best discussion about the belt I have found is also on Weather Underground.

http://www.wunderground.com/education/abruptclimate.asp

Howlin_Dog said...

A short summary of DOD predictions from 2005 are found in the 2nd article on this site. http://thewe.cc/weplanet/news/people/abrupt_climate_change_event.htm

For the Boys said...

I think I might be confused by the weather underground global sea temperature map. Because why would the surface temps matter since cold water is more dense than warm? So doesn't that picture look exactly as it's supposed to? Or is the lack of current we're missing? I'm still confused. Obviously.

agape wins said...

gamedog,

I recall/remember wondering through/in trash at dumps, landfills, while still in Diapers.
My Father was scavenging for scrap iron & steel to sell, as many did during our great Depression. I have wondered about the link between what is not used/Trashed and Inflation!
We pay for all the "Convenient" packaging, & everything which is not reused/recycled; We also pay
(through the nose) to dispose of all our "Unwanted" whatever. These "unseen" costs are eventually added to future costs! Does it seem reasonable to use everything, or as much as possible; as most "Native People"
do?
I worked Trash recycling once & was shocked at what was cast off, much new clothing, equipment still in packaging, and eatable food, still in sealed containers; even while there were nearby Aid Agencies. I am amazed to see new building material at the landfill (Which you can't remove)!
We have a recycling program here, most donated items are "stockpiled"/trashed because the "market price" is too low!
Most plastic &/or Foam ends up in a waterway to the Ocean. An example of the senselessness is, Bulbs which contain Mercury, Law says they must be recycled as "Hazardous". Our landfill charges 40 US cents to remove each Bulb/Mercury to a safe container, in effect I save at least 80 cents by polluting the future, most everyone here does!!
Battery's, Motor oil, & Tires are sold with a prepay "Recycle Surcharge", but I still see many "Tipped"!

About the difference in Attitude, I will assume you mean with those boxed in by their situation/mindset, as opposed to
someone who actively seeks a solution. "driven policy of social deprivation?" There is that, but, why do some play
into the brainwashing while others resist?

"In this amazing book, Eldon Taylor not only exposes the massive efforts to program your thinking, he also provides you with
all the tools to fight back."
Why do some of us know "THE Tools", as if they were "Inborn"? Check out his other books.

http://www.eldontaylor.com/mindprogramming/

Many here know the way, others are finding/connecting the "Dots" rapidly!
Gels, Emissary, & puddingknife are thinking in the right direction; keep it up, no one is saying you are incorrect or should not have
your say! Sallyk is still boxed in by our lifestyle, We will pull through, MCR, has said so, & We are all working toward that end!
I hope they truly do not drop away! Chuck, MCR never said it was caused, just that it Is/was, or could have been possible, &
should be investigated, and was being, by others, which was good- so he didn't have to. His mention of Pearl Harbor is pertinent,
because the attack was never truly explained. See my next post.
Amae.

agape wins said...

I wrote this in Sept. of 2005.

Public demonstration in a free society has a constructive place; it encourages honesty in government and humanity in war. Repressive governments become increasingly more corrupt and their regard for human life and suffering disappears. Look at Germany, Russia, China and Japan in World War II, where dissent was not tolerated. In Vietnam, we had lost the hearts of the people long before Tet, as had the French before us - without the people, any victory is hollow and short.

During the '20s and '30s, our foreign policy toward Germany was almost conciliatory. Toward Russia it was neutral but toward Japan it was bordering on hostility. We were breaking the codes of all three and after 1935. We were aware of our policy's effect, but still we persisted.

The United States had broken the Japanese code in (1,23,10, actually about 1931) 1940 and was breaking the German and Russian codes also. This is not something to be ashamed of but a fact we should acknowledge more; this fact saved untold thousands of lives! Would revealing our knowledge have prevented the war or given us an advantage?

No, it would have just given the enemy warning that we had broken their codes. Our War Department was aware of Japan's many preparations for attack and the effect's of weather on those plans. Most of our fleet was out on maneuvers as planned and a teletype had been prepared which should have arrived six hours before the planned attack, placing Pearl on a "Practice Alert," but it was misfiled by the operator and arrived at Pearl as the Zroes were leaving!

The War Department planned on fighting a holding action in the Pacific until Germany was defeated but McArthur and his press forced a policy change which extended the war in Europe and forced an alliance with Russia. None of this is a negative reflection on our brave and gallant troops, nor is it a justification for the brutality and torture committed by anyone as revenge or to save lives.

Germany and Japan were both working on an "A Bomb" with Japan ahead and possibly assisting Germany. Our intelligence was the world's best and our leaders in both parties were in accord, yet we could not be too open as to alarm our enemies. The treaty at Yalta was about sharing the spoils, with Russia demanding a share in governing Japan, which had a nuclear plant in Korea, which they wanted. They were desperate to take part in an invasion so as to split Japan as with Europe!

Japan was suing for peace in June of 1945 but we insisted on unconditional surrender; I think because we were already moving the bombs and crews into place; we had to show Russia and the entire world that we already had the bomb and were willing to use it! Russia was making a dash for Japan and did capture the equipment in Korea and brought it to Russia. Our refusal to accept surrender in June caused many deaths on both sides. Do not talk about invading Japan - we had the bomb and were going to use however many it took. The peace signed was not unconditional, as some say, but almost what Japan proposed in June!

If the war would have ended in the summer, the Russians would not have gained the Japanese research, but Stalin would have thought we were too humanitarian to use atomic weapons and we would have been fighting against a foe much more vicious than Hitler or Tojo. He killed American and British citizens in the 1930s and more than 60 million of his own people! The Japanese were ruthless, especially with the Chinese, but they were both warring cultures, with warriors respected as are our sports heroes; their competition had been going on for centuries, and Chairman Mao killed over 70 million Chinese people besides the Japanese the Chinese had tortured and killed.

Japan has clearly moved into the 21st century ahead of Europe. The communist countries are still struggling with the 20th century; China is moving ahead and becoming a threat to world freedom.
1,23,10-Amae.

Michiel said...

Cited sources from Wikipedia, at first glance, seem to underline wxdude714's comment about subsequent polar warming:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation#cite_note-10

Now, that this could increase ice-melt on Greenland and ultimately stop the conveyor because of the suggested reasons is another story.

The sources on the wiki page are very recent, yet there has been no talk about them under the 'discussion' tab. I suggest people keep an eye on that.

Br. Michal Mária OSB said...

For those interested: I found two very good articles at following pages:
Daily Kos: Warm Atlantic Water Rapidly Replacing Arctic Sea Ice
Daily Kos: Freak Current Takes Gulf Stream to Greenland.
Besides there are some very accurate maps of Surface Sea Temperatures on SSEC. They have an archive of images for the last year. I think we could see in coming weeks/months what is going on really. It would be interesting to create a side-by-side comparison of those images for the same day of this and the previous year.
But of course the most important pieces of data are the actual measurements of salinity. Unfortunately it's not so easy to get to them. Maybe GOCE could also provide some insight — but as far as I know ESA is still only testing their new toy and no data was released that could help us…
BTW: CERN has also studied the problem. I don't remember the link, but it should be somewhere — they ran some mathematic simulations and came to a conclusion that a catastrophic scenario is unlikely (though possible), but the conveyor belt can slow down. Of course these are all theories. No one really knows what impact on the climate and environment could it have. Maybe we'll soon find out…

PeakedOut said...

I read an article several years ago based on research by a Cambridge Univiersity professor that had spent 20 years monitoring the Greenland Iceshelf. He pretty much described the issue like this.

As the ice sheets form off the shores of Greenland, the salt in the water that is freezing drops from the ice and drifts downward to the ocen floor. This action forms a vortex as the density of salt increases in the water below the icesheets. Cold, very salty water falls from the surface to the bottom of the ocean and generates a current. This current runs south west across the Atlantic until it reaches South America. Several similar instances occur in other areas of the globe and this current moves cold and warm water in a circular fashion. The cold water would generate rain and cooler weather for South America and the returning warmer water would warm Great Britain and Europe.

The professor predicted/observed that droughts were already hitting South America and that the lack of moisture in South America would result in droughts in Africa and tempuratures dropping rapidly in Europe and Great Britain. He pointed out that GB was at the same approximate Latitude as Siberia and without the warming currents fed by the Greenland icesheets, GB would face plumetting tempuratures. This article was written in 2004 right around the time the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" premiered. I think the movie caused people to dismiss his findings as sensationalism.

Here we are 6 years later and Venezula is having electrical outages because of the lack the rain water to run their hydroelectric generators. GB is indeed getting a blast of record cold. So perhaps this scientist called this one right.

However, it seems to me that nature has many self correcting mechanisms.
If shrinking icesheets off of Greenland have slowed or stopped the North Atlantic Conveyor belt. And this results in a rapid freezing, then the icesheets off of Greenland will grow rapidly again. This would likly restart the North Atlantic Conveyor belt. Sort of a back and forth effect for the tempuratures in the Atlantic.

I've concluded that man's long term weather predicting skills are about as good as his short term weather predicting skills. That is to say that man does better explaining what happened than what will happen next. Keep in mind I'm no scientist, but if you live in Great Britain, you might want to wear Bermuda shorts under your parka just to cover all contingencies.

Warmest regards to you all regardless of the weather.. :-)

PeakedOut said...

Sounding off!!

I've been wanting to speak to several things that have happened here on this blog recently. First, kudos to all that participated in the RanD debate. While the discourse could have turned ugly, it remained mostly polite and respectful. This is one of the many reasons I continue to read this blog. The participants largely keep the discourse intelligent and thought provoking. If this is due only to Jenna's moderating of the blog, than it is the first instance of censorship I've ever seen that made censorship worthwhile. I suspect she seldom needs to exercise that power.

There seems to be a few very new contributors to the blog. Welcome. Please try to understand that there are many people here and we are in varying states of dealing with what's happening. Using the grieving model as example, we get comments from everyone from those in denial to those in full acceptance of collapse. We have few answers ourselves to the challenges we face. We mostly track events and try to determine how and when collapse will hit home for each of us.

Next, NBPatton recently popped back up on the blog. I'd missed his posts as he offered a much different tone and a much more combative perspective on events we discussed. He was the only contributor offering any sort of belligerence in his viewpoints. It was sort of refreshing to have that angst amongst all of the Amae and Namaste salutations which populate these postings. Of course his recent posts were so filled with insult an anger that the few good points he made were drowned out by the vitriol.

This brings me to my final topic. Violence. It has been the elephant in the chatroom if you will. I do not recall any of the conversations we share here touching on violence. As we saw with Hurricane Katrina and now Haiti, violence accompanies calamity. If a deep freeze were to really hammer Great Britain, or any other calamity were to strike close to your home, what is your plan? Is there a way to prepare for the violent reaction that is sure to follow? I know this is a tough topic to discuss, but it may be high time we touched on it a bit. I ask because I respect the intellect and humanity shown here on this blog. Thank you for your consideration.

Ian said...

Hello,
The link below is from a 2003 Davos(NWO puppets) presentation.


http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=9986christensen25

gamedog said...

Part 1 - I Just blew 5 hours on this.

Firstly linking to a Sea Surface Temperature map which only shows temp differences in 5 degree C increments - and claiming that is evidence of the gulf stream stopping - at best seems like going off a little half cocked to me.

One would need to see Temperature Anomaly in 0.5 degree increments, and map, or loop those images, to get any sort of signal.

Here is such a map, up to the 17th Jan 2010. (sorry for the long link I couldn't work out how to link the evidence otherwise)

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP/.EMC/.CMB/.GLOBAL/.Reyn_SmithOIv2/.weekly/.ssta/startcolormap/DATA/-5./5./RANGE/black/navy/blue/-5./VALUE/cyan/-0.5/VALUE/white/white/0.5/bandmax/yellow/0.5/VALUE/red/5./VALUE/firebrick/endcolormap/DATA/0.5/STEP/figviewer.html?my.help=&map.T.plotvalue=23+Dec+2009+-+16+Jan+2010&map.Y.units=degree_north&map.Y.plotlast=70N&map.here.x=0&map.here.y=0&map.url=X+Y+fig-+colors+|+nozero+contours+land+-fig&map.domain=+{+%2FT+2455070+2455210+plotrange+X+20+380+plotrange+Y+-60+70+plotrange+}&map.domainparam=+%2Fplotaxislength+600+psdef+%2Fplotborder+72+psdef+%2FXOVY+null+psdef&map.zoom=Zoom&map.Y.plotfirst=60S&map.X.plotfirst=20E&map.X.units=degree_east&map.X.modulus=360&map.X.plotlast=20E&map.ssta.plotfirst=-5.&map.ssta.units=degree_Celsius&map.ssta.plotlast=5.&map.newurl.grid0=X&map.newurl.grid1=Y&map.newurl.land=draw+land&map.newurl.plot=colors+|+nozero+contours&map.plotaxislength=600&map.plotborder=72&map.fnt=Helvetica&map.fntsze=12&map.color_smoothing=1&map.XOVY=auto&map.iftime=100&map.mftime=100&map.fftime=200

gamedog said...

Part 2

Play around with the dates, maybe set it to last year in a different browser window, and flick between the two, you'll see a clear el nino effect, what you won't see is the gulf stream stopped.

Secondly, a Day After Tomorrow scenario, would be triggered by the Greenland ice melt pouring very cold fresh water into the gulfstream cold sink. Research did point to the gulfstream slowing from the 2004 data, but since the 1998 el nino year temps have been dropping, and a Greenland melt-water scenario due to global warming is unlikely to happen in the middle of the coldest winter in the N. hemisphere since 1934.

"Is there evidence of cold water around Greenland pouring into the North Atlantic? No, quite the opposite. Sea Surface Temperatures around Greenland have running consistently above normal. Below are SST maps for the end of July (peak melt season) for 2007-2009."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/17/glaciers-in-wales/#more-15330

Don't be taken in by the AGW hype. No disrespect to Mr. Stan Nangle, but his take, and the greens in general, on climate being driven by C02 leaves and a lot to be desired IMO, the greens have been taken over by TPTB for their own agenda.

Geoff Lawton explains the situation very well in his permaculture design course (online at ecosutra.tv - highly recommended - view the evidence chapters at least) Climate is regulated by forests, which both warm and cool climate, moderating local temp extremes, forests are the moderator of climate. Due to deforestation this moderator is having less and less calming effect on climate, so we will see extremes of climate, both warmer and colder maximums will be seen, rather than an ever increasing temperature.

The IPCC, and corpgovs, know all this but push the C02 bunkum, both for profit (carbon tax), and as a cover for peak oil.

Science knows full well that C02 is not the driver of climate (it's the sun) or indeed even a major greenhouse gas. Co2 (a minor greenhouse gas)is 0.004% of atmosphere, water vapour makes up to 95% of greenhouse gasses, which would otherwise be taken up by forests, of which over 50% have disappeared in my lifetime.

Ask yourself why the political solution is not re-forestation, but instead Co2 reduction is pushed as the political solution?

Peak Oil. MCR quote "it is not profitable to slow decline"

It is not profitable to stop deforestation, it is not profitable to reforest the planet, it is not profitable to switch from a fossil fuel based growth paradigm.

Plant trees.

P.S. tip for posters - blogger keeps eating my posts, seems the only way to avoid this tedium is to write posts in word and save them for re-posting.

Jonny said...

Mike,

I'm starting to think that you and Chris need to get together and make another movie 'Collapse 2: Everything that's happened since we made last one'

Emissary said...

Well being a brit that lives in the west I can say that we have had moderately cold weather at the start of January, but nothing particularly bad. In fact after talking to many older people they cant see what all the fuss is about, they say it used to be like this every winter until the last 20 years or so. At the moment the weather here has gone back to very typical January weather ( chilly and wet)

I'm sure many of you have heard of the "terrible" conditions in the UK, but the truth is as usual the councils were totally underprepared. I cant comment on other sections of Europe or America, but with regards to my area I have seen no cause for alarm (yet!)

We survived a Mini Ice age once before and I'm sure we can do it again. Who knows it may turn out to be something positive. The British tend to have a fantastic backs to the wall attitude and sense of community when TSHTF

Michael Sloan said...

I would also like this explained more, particularly as Mike is referring to a link I don't see (The weather underground tropical link says nothing about any conveyor).

also it is misleading to say Dr. William Patterson believes the mini-ice age could happen in months, at least from what I have read, he is talking about a hypothetical scenario, the event would take months not years, not specifically about a 2010 event. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sciencetoday/2010/0121/1224262767023.html)

Donna said...

Abrupt Climate Change Scenario

pdf format from nasa.gov

An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United
States National Security
October 2003


Scenario
"The Period from 2010 to 2020
Thermohaline Circulation Collapse
After roughly 60 years of slow freshening, the thermohaline collapse begins in 2010, disrupting the temperate climate of Europe, which is made possible by the warm flows of the Gulf Stream (the North Atlantic arm of the global thermohaline conveyor). Ocean circulation patterns change, bringing less warm water north and causing an immediate shift in the weather in Northern Europe and eastern North America. The North Atlantic Ocean continues to be affected by fresh water coming from melting glaciers, Greenland’s ice sheet, and perhaps most importantly increased rainfall and runoff."

RanD said...

gamedog, seeing our human condition as a product of "deliberate" social deprivation puts us in the position of thinking we're victims of this ever nebulous so-called PTB. One can of course stay with that perspective if one chooses. However, we prefer seeing the human condition as being a product of that which every single human individual thinks & does, collectively, and that this is what makes our human condition what it is. By implementing this fundamentally self-responsible perspective it is made possible to transform that which is merely our self-adopted status quo's traditional "powerful guys versus helpless guys" socio-psychological paradigm into being an "I am an integral personal component of our shared human condition", one which all of my human fellows & I collectively produce via our thinking and correlated behaviors.

Seeing things in this way shows us that our species' prevailing "ignorance of reality's nature", alone, is therefore humankind's only true adversary. By choosing to see that this is the case, we who then do so are able to accept self-responsibility for improving our species' situation, and are thereby made able to be moved by such knowledge to engage in intelligent collaboration toward bettering our lot.

This works for us; and, being but average normal human beings who love our lives, we are caused to imagine that it should probably work similarly for others.

*******

Also: Excellent 2 Part report above.

Br. Michal Mária OSB said...

Re: PeakedOut

One important correction: The whole theory about conveyor belt halt rests on research done on Greenland and Antarctic ice. There are two possible scenarios:
1. A small ice age. (Which may last several decades, maybe centuries.) In this case the Conveyor belt slows down, thus reducing its effects on climate. It can also speed up again without much trouble — when certain conditions are met that is.
2. An ice age. (Lasting up to several thousand years, maybe also longer) In this case, the conveyor belt stops completely. Its still not clear how is that possible. But empiric results show that this had indeed happened in the past. (There are some hypothesis about the causes, like a melting of an ice barrier resulting in a large spill from a glacier lake into the ocean etc…) The problem is, that the Conveyor may stop. Remember, that those currents are above each other. If you stop the circulation around Greenland, the current in the Atlantic may stop quite easily. In the Indian and Pacific Ocean the story may be different, some temporary weather events may occur, but in the end the Conveyor belt will grind to a halt. But to stop something is always easier then make it go again — you have to apply more energy (that's basic physics). In this case, the polar ice caps will indeed be restored, not only that — they will cover large parts of Northern America and Eurasia (I'm from Slovakia — we also will end up under ice — you may find historic evidence for previous ice ages all around the country). But this is not enough. Some extended time period has to pass and other conditions must be met — and again it's unclear which. Only after that can the Conveyor belt restore itself back again and start the whole process again. This is more like an on/off switch, that regulates the climate on the planet. So the back and fourth effect you are mentioning in your post may take something like a thousand years…
The point still remains, that no scientist can really predict what would happen, nor when. All this is based on various theories, which rest on some (but not enough) research, mainly in the Arctic, and which rely on computer and mathematical models that may be inaccurate. If the Conveyor belt is collapsing, we should see a visible change of temperature patterns, wind currents, precipitation, ocean currents, temperature and salinity. There may be some extreme weather conditions for some time. All this can happen within something like a year or two, and should be clearly manifest within a few months. We have quite harsh winter in our country as well, but no record temperatures so far. I'm looking forward to May — it should be clear by that time (at least we could rule out the big ice age by that time — that would be a complete catastrophy and we would have a World War III, fighting for survival).

Ian said...

Hello,
I am sorry the previous link was missing one digit I hope this gets through
This is a Davos presentation from 2003

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=9986

gamedog said...

I suspect this is what it's all about. New article in Nature mag.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/15/uh-oh-50-year-old-ocean-thermohaline-model-sinking-fast-climate-models-may-be-disrupted/#more-7875

Comments are interesting!

Here's the nature link, but you have to be a subscriber to read the full paper.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v459/n7244/full/nature07979.html

Paul said...

David Kelly post mortem to be kept secret for 70 years as doctors accuse Lord Hutton of concealing vital information

Only one comment possible I think….

Cover-up.

Namaste

ps. gamedog - got an error 404 when I tried to post your long link in - guess some of it got clipped - would tinyurl.com help? I would hate your 5 hours dedicated effort to be wasted....

Sharon in Mississippi said...

Europe has had much colder winters than even now, within the last few hundred years.

"The Little Ice Age is a period between about 1300 and 1870 during which Europe and North America were subjected to much colder winters than during the 20th century."

The Little Ice Age, Ca. 1300 - 1870

Sun Oddly Quiet -- Hints at Next "Little Ice Age"?

RanD said...

Btw, just recently RanD was criticized for being "off topic" when attempting to show how exclusively human thinking and directly correlated behaviors were the cause of such phenomena as Peak Oil, Peak Resources, a collapsing economy, a deteriorating human condition etc. If that criticism was deserved, then what does our vigorously discussing such an entirely natural non-human phenomenon -- such as an as yet mere ostensible "COLLAPSE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC [thermo-haline] CONVEYOR" -- tell us in terms of being "off" or "on" topic? What, pray tell, do entirely naturally occurring events have to do with anything we humans know we're doing to ourselves that we know is causing us harm?

It appears to us there is some serious cross-threaded thinking going on here at FTW.

Peddler on the Hoof said...

I notice people being more violent in cities these days.

Given 1970 as peak US oil production and income/true wealth for vast majority of americans, and every year since then a downhill slide to equilibrium (1970s cambodia conditions in USA) then is it any surprise we see more violence every year over remaining scraps?

businessman said...

gamedog...as Paul suggested...consider www.tinyurl.com to make a much shorter URL out of the one you've given us.

Also, anyone wanting to know how to easily convert Web addresses into clickable hyperlinks within this Blog can visit the following Web page:

Click Here for the Web Page

businessman said...

RanD...you weren't criticized for what you just posted in this thread that you felt you were criticized for. You were criticized because your postings get extremely long, ethereal, and they're not something that most of us are really that interested in reading.

Most of us post links to other articles in here frequently to help everyone learn more. But you usually give us very long opinions on ethereal subjects instead, when you'd probably do most of us a far greater service by doing what we're all doing...posting links to articles that we think others in here would really want to read.

Ms. V. said...

Hi Mike, Jenna. Is Collapse available for purchase on DVD yet?

Also, are there other documentaries you would recommend for viewing prior to Collapse for college freshmen? Many Thanks...

gels said...

My 2 cents is a correction on others thermohaline explanations:

Thermohaline circulation is accomplished when warm water from the Carribean flows north- evaporating water all the way. The result is a much saltier "river" (Gulf Stream) when it arrives off Greenland. This Saltier water, finally cools enough and sinks rapidly due to its greater density (saltier is denser). As mentioned by others, it then flows back south...

The Younger-Dryas thermohaline switch is hypothesized to have occured in the following way: as the glaciers retreated and the ice age waned, huge fresh meltwater lakes formed in the Great Lakes region. Part of the north american glacial shield was "damming" these lakes, and when the glaciers retreated to a certain point, these massive freshwater lakes dumped an incredible amount of freshwater into the north atlantic, I believe via the St. Lawrence.

Once this absolutely HUGE bolus of fresh water arrived at the key thermohaline "drop" point, it decreased the salinity of the salty gulf stream, and essentially stopped the salinity sink for about a thousand years. Without the heat imput of the gulf stream, the freezing weather returned to the Northern Hemisphere for a millenia until the salinity returned to normal.

With respect to today's situation: (sorry, don't have the links handy)
it is my understanding that today's meltwater from Greenland does not approach the volume of ice age glacial meltwater that surged when the glacial lakes were un-dammed. I also believe the glacial meltwater was more focused toward the "drop" point of gulf stream.

The risk today is there, but the summer melt rate would likely need to increase, as is predicted throughout the remainder of the century.

Sorry for the absence of documentation, and if I'm incorrect on a few points, apologies. No time to verify things tonight as I'm starting my master's program tomorrow. Not sure how much good a M.S. in Chem E will do me should some approximation of Collapse transpire, but I figure what the hell.

For the Boys said...

I found an interesting msnbc story today. Hmmm...I wonder, why would they be worried about frankenstorm now? And not have prepared for it sooner?

http://tinyurl.com/yhhycc5

v said...

Shell to look beyond tar sandsRoyal Dutch Shell’s expansion in Canada’s controversial tar sands will be “very much slower” than in recent years, the company’s new chief executive has said, as the group makes a strategic shift away from high-cost “unconventional” oil production.

Venezuela's oil estimates doubled

Climategate: CRU Was But the Tip of the Iceberg


Oh, and by the way:
Netherlands (population 17 million) raise more then Americans (population 307 million) in helping Haiti via telethon. 120 vs 54 million USD


GrTz,

V

Blogzer said...

This story has no credibility.. the THREAT is still PEAK OIL, make no room for distractions.

Paul Davis said...

Here's a link from The Sunday Times from May 2005 mentioning that the conveyor had already slowed to a quarter of its former strength:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article520013.ece

Paul Davis said...

Apparently the conveyor stopped for 10 days in 2004 says a Guardian report from 2006:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/oct/27/science.climatechange

gamedog said...

The long link worked for me this morning, I just highlighted the whole thing and pasted into a browser, but here goes with tiny if I didn't cock up this newfangled link formatting :)

Try this link.

It's showing temp anomalies, so the white areas are what's usually there, the cooler and warmer areas are animated. If the animation don't work, there's a redraw icon on't page. ;)

Great post Agape, reminds me so much when I was 3yo scrambling round tips with my Dad (who taught me to fix anything). Re Attitude, yeah that's it, but I would say it's a kind of Cognitive dissonance. People believe what they want to, and they want to believe the gov has their best interests at heart, even when their ambitions are stolen.

Br. Michal Mária OSB: Good find on those dailykos links - shows where the hysteria mite originate. Notably science only has good measurements for the last 10 years or so, we don't know if it's "unprecedented", the temps around greenland have been warmer for some time, not just this winter - as shown in the WUWT link I posted.

We had such a cold blast in the N. Hemisphere because the jet-stream, low pressure over the arctic (Negative AO) sucked a big "oxbow" out of the jetstream over the arctic which brought down the cold temp air as it returned south,
this is a really good link showing current jet-stream activity

I've been watching it daily since Oct when I noticed winter arctic ice formation started about 2 weeks early, which helped me prepare for an expected cold winter (also forecast 6 months early by Piers Corbyn). This is probably due to the very quite sun we have atm, Suncyle 24 seems very late with 772 spotless days since the end of cycle 23 in 04 - Typical Solar Min: 485 days.

The current jet-stream picture/animation shows a much smaller mass of air in an "oxbow" than caused the cold blast, this one dissipates, the dec oxbow was huge, came down over greenland/western europe and did not dissipate, it brought huge masses of arctic weather with it, another came down over the US/Can nothing to do with the Gulf-stream stopping/slowing.

RandD your 8:38 post did an excellent summing up of all you've covered on this subject that went over my head in past posts. To deny "victimhood" would be to deny the perpetrators/PTB are (currently) in control of our destiny. Course we can rise above that, but it means taking back control, most people just see it as futile because the PTB have taken so much control that they crush opposition in a zillion different ways from advertising and mass consumerism to overbearing laws/enforcement/war. Unless we're willing to organise and replace/discard TPTB, in reality we are "victims". Permaculture is a way out of this, weather the ideas and new (old) way of thinking will spread to mass audience/mass action levels in time/before collapse remains to be seen, I hope it does, but I doubt it will.

Paul: cover-up indeed, how do they get away with it! I wonder if RanD see's Dr. Kelly as a victim, or a his death was a "product of that which every single human individual thinks & does, collectively"?

tony said...

I second gamedog on this one: exactly nothing extraordinary is happening (see http://tinyurl.com/ykrl5z5 , I added last week to his time period, conclusion stays the same)
A skeptical article about Greenland and possible Gulf Stream slowdown: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/17/glaciers-in-wales/

RanD said...

businessman, The history of our at best strained interactions with you consistently makes it evident that you are unwilling to accept what Ruthie & I know, say, and do here at FTW. And that fact is again evinced by the entirety of your above 5:59 PM post to RanD. Although we would be exceedingly pleased to share with you an amicable conversation, we already know from your blatantly bogus 5:59 PM post that no such thing is possible. We will cut straight to the point:

Ruthie and I each, at earlier times, when entirely apart from each other, have also been businessmen; she as a sign maker in Western Colorado, I as a landscaping contractor in Southern California. We each were successful in our businesses and became thoroughly familiarized with the idiosyncratic ins & outs unique to our respective professions. We also learned that keeping oneself comfortably in-the-black is a successful businessperson's #1 constant priority.

Today neither of us are businessmen whose #1 priorities are keeping ourselves in-the-black. Today we instead are free to have as our #1 constant priority our efforts toward instating what we refer to as the Universal Common Good. And, in our work toward that end it has consistently been made fully evident to us that the Universal Common Good is impossible of being instated from the perspective of a businessman's #1 constant priority.

We rest our case. Amen.

MCR said...

Gamedog -- I didn't go off half-cocked, nor did I make any claims. I raised questions that needed to be checked urgently. I did not have the five or ten hours to do it. For every major story we broke at FTW I went through the same evaluation process to determine wheteher or not it was a significant story.

It's a pain in the ass isn't it? But now you can see how many hours I spent hunched, doing the due-diligence fact checking and quite often printed nothing. That's what I'm retired from.

I'm sorry that you had to do it once. But now we all have a better understanding don't we? This blog moved with lightning speed and produced an analyzed many hours of research and data collection.

I think what we've concluded is that the situation bears close watching. It is one of many possible threats out there. -- I agree that Peak is our major concern, along with the financial/economic collapse.

But to completely disregard other threats is not so wise either.

There's a lot of work involved in map making. I am really proud of all you guys, especially for the speed at which you put this all together.

MCR

businessman said...

MCR...Thanks for being so humble and so gracious in your post back to gamedog. What you and Jenna have created through this Blog is truly exceptional.

businessman said...

In follow-up to agape wins mentioning the attack on Pearl Harbor again, there's a book I read years ago that will blow your mind in describing all that the United States knew about the attack before it ever happened. The book is called "Pearl Harbor: Mother of All Conspiracies", by Mark Emerson Willey.

gamedog said...

MCR: sorry mate, the post was aimed at Stan Nangle, who I presumed made the claims to you, for you to post it, hence me saying no disrespect to the guy, I could have been clearer on that tho. My post reads back like a frustration bomb went off, sorry if you took some of the fallout :)

If the Greens want my vote they will have to drop the idea of using precious energy to pump gaseous plant food into the ground as a good idea - I won't even go into "carbon tax/credits".

If we're keeping time sheets, do I get bonus points for the 7 hours last night after my post, and the 10 so far today :) I caught the climate research bug years ago when I took up windsurfing, and I'm having a relapse LOL

I've noticed another post on the blog already, it doesn't matter how much time spent, there's not enough hours in the day to keep up with this lot!

Best regards,

gels said...

A follow-up to my comments yesterday- sources.

These peer reviewed scientific papers and journal articles analyze impacts of thermohaline switch over next 150 years, and discuss the data surrounding the thermohaline switch during the Younger-Dryas cooling.

First time posting sources (links) here. Hope I am doing this right.

Gulf Stream Shutdown?
Bottom line: bad if you’re a fisherman or have oceanfront property on the US east coast. Not too big a deal if you live in Europe (cooling modified by global warming). Process is likely to stretch out over next century.

Source: An extremely thorough paper which considers various slowdown/shutdown scenarios of the Gulf Stream over the next 150 years. A cursory review on my end yields their findings to be potentially disastrous for fisheries, due to nutrient upwelling changes, a rise in sea level on the east coast of America, and possible precipitation changes in the Nordic region of Europe. IMPORTANT: they assess the presumed cooling to be mitigated by global warming—so Northern Europe is unlikely to return to arctic type conditions. Therefore, the Day after Tomorrow type ice age catastrophe for northern Europe is unsupported.

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~till/lit/kuhlbrodt-THC.pdf

With respect to the Younger-Dryas Thermohaline Switch: a published paper which details reasons for and against the North American Glacial Lake “draining” hypothesis, believed to have contributed to the switch

http://www.pnas.org/content/104/16/6500.full.pdf

As a scientist, I like data. Although data can be warped to suit special interests: (i.e. big tobacco), trends in published papers and peer reviewed articles, based on the scientific method, provide us the best way to make sense of complicated climatic global scenarios.

gels said...

Apologies, just practicing my hprlink sources for my previous post. Sorry for the previous non-hlinks.


Thermohaline Shutdown Over 150 Years



Younger Dryas Initiation


Hopefully these peer reviewed sources allow for a few big "phews". Worry about Peak Oil; back burner the Day After Tomorrow Scenarios.

Kali said...

I guess by the thread lenght there is going to be disputes about 2 billion barrels while world consumption is 30 Billion a year. What a difference from a declining field.

Kali said...

I say this here because I believe it. In Norway we killed our prime minister during the war years because we wanted him dead. His name was quisling.

I see the same threathment for Al Gore and mr.uglyface.

I see them both shoot in the head for crimes against humanity.

Kali said...

That is right.

Shot in the head for crimes against humanity!

Br. Michal Mária OSB said...

May be important: BBC: Vast iceberg 'may disrupt ocean currents'.
Besides that: current ocean observations still do not confirm the catastrophic scenario…