It is not too late to buy physical gold. That is what will shield you the best right now. I'm laughing because I sold all my gold to fight the political persecution in Oregon and to live on for the last eight months. If I had money I would be running to buy gold first thing Monday morning and I'd keep it up until the wheels came off or the new playing field that's coming had opened other options.
Now imagine this: The dollar gets dumped (in progress) as the world's reserve currency. Oil is no longer priced in dollars and trillions of dollars come home to... do what? Sure, it may cost a thosand a month for phone service. But suddenly John Q will be told that his salary has gone up 50%... at first. But what about all those bullshit mortages (including the fraudulent ones), all those trillions in derivatives? Well if John Q suddenly finds he has a million worthless dollars in his pocket he could well go back and laugh as he pays off the $350,000 mortgage. But the books get cleaned and sanitized and some of the air leaves the derivatives bubble. A controlled-burn. Yeah, the only ones that are going to get burned are the people -- the New White Trash.
MCR
With the arrival of Peak Oil, the curtain has closed on Act 1 of the drama Petroleum Man. What will happen in Act 2? Chekhov said, "If there's a gun on the wall at the beginning of the play, by the end it must go off." In the world's nuclear arsenal are many guns on the wall. If life copies art, will there be an Act 3 in which the players, having learned their lesson the hard way, live sustainably? To explore these and other questions... FTW's Act 2 Blog. Read, comment, take heart! Orkin
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38 comments:
Mike,
I have a hard time understanding how hyperinflation would benefit the ruling class at the expense of The People. As you note, all debts would be paid, but the payee would have nothing but crap to show. Usually that would be seen as a populist shift.
Also, hyperinflation creates a vacuum for new economies: barter, skills exchange and gift economy among tribes who voluntarily care for one another. Money is dead. We still have the skills and the needs that we had before. That seems to radicalize the populus and threaten the elite.
Someone has written that it might be a one-two punch, where deflation puts real wealth up for sale cheap, snapped up by the super-rich and whazam, they just got another piece of us. When the system has been gutted and considerable amounts of formerly liquid assets (soon to be worthless) have been converted to real goods, then they crush money. They still own everything.
I would expect such a project to feature a good deal of newly manifest coercion: anti-terror checkpoints, federal troops used as special police, additional local police who are better armed, privately owned prison factories, newly empowered private security forces and so forth. Serious gun control legislation could be expected in advance of the true crash, and may in fact herald the Serious Moment. If there's a plug to be pulled, they'll get the guns away and put the security measures in quietly first.
The only reason John Q's salary would rocket 50% up is because all those corporations' profit have risen by 100% thanks to the increased asset and service prices they can charge as dollar become devalued. It seems the right action would be to take out a 30 year fixed mortgage and buy up all available shares of US corporations instead. When it comes use your shares to proxy vote the companies to increase dividend instead of employee pay from their newly found profit margins. The problem is the current price of US$1080/oz for gold, isn't gold another dollar denominated asset - an asset that is denominated in US$1080 per oz. If dollar goes down there's no discrimination between asset classes, all assets - shares, gold, real estates, go up simply because all of them can be purchased with dollar by definition, so the right advise seem to be as MCR suggested - to max out on the new 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 4% and hope to retire it as soon as possible with newly inflated dollar - which is what a lot of major corporations have actually been doing for the past year or so by issuing long term bonds at low interest rates.
Crossroads - #17
Buy Gold?
According to the all-time constant #1 top selling book on the world's top seller's list you can worship either Mammon or you can worship God, but absolutely not both.
Would it be a good idea to try and get a 30 yr mortgage on a home to lock in the low dollar value? While at the same time holding some gold investments to pay it off when the crap hits the fan? My main concern goes back to the basics of having a good shelter and be located in a good community where we can work together.
Hey Mike,
You might want to consider silver coin for savings. Silver is now historically under priced relative to gold and demand is much higher than production. This trend is likely to continue indefinitely. The Liberty Dollar which weighs one troy ounce and carries a $20 denomination is now unavailable because the Feds have shut down the mint and are putting four operator/ distributors on trial, one of which is in jail.
Blessings X 10,
Ed
For those of us folks who don't have the bucks for gold.
A suggestion would be non-perishable food items, extra clothing and the kinds of things you would provision for a natural disaster.
The remainder could be put into silver which is (still) under $20/oz.
Just as a note: Precious metals have their own set of problems. Recently a family member needed expensive eye surgery. To help pay for this, I tried to sell some AU.
I could not find locally a buyer who would give me a good price, so I sold some on eBay (where u get more $ but pay seller & payment fees). It turns out the buyer used a fraudulent payment method, causing my money to be held and probably taken (even with "safe " PayPal!)
Even though I bought about $600/oz, and sold at $1100/oz, getting nothing does me NO good!
You have to be careful, of course, but as my episode shows I would have better off just keeping my $ in the bank earning interest.
I have also bought and kept Euros, but the fees on buying and then selling take away much of the advantage.
Think for yourself, and be smart with your money. Mostly, stop spending so much. Spend it (money) like IT IS RARE! You will be OK if you do that. One thing that I have come to realize (and probably MCR too) is the collapse will probably be much slower than expected. There are too many powerful interests....remember Rome didn't fall in a day (or year or decade or century)...
Most people wouldn't get a pay raise.
I don't even know anyone whose paycheck it tied to the inflation rate.
the common person is going to get screwed.
as always.
great post Mike, thanks for the heads up.
Enlighten the people,generaly,
I see alot of information being put out there to dismantle the paradigm,the cross on federal land is significant for one.The only hope of success I see on the money end of it is that Obamas plan is to bankrupt the federal reserve,come out with a new currency..and on his plan for the equally well funded civilian military force he talked about could well be all of us.
once peoples eye of reason is opened and they see what has been done,the whole human spirit will be unleashed,in an armed population that is buying weapons and ammo at record levels this should be frightening to the elite,and it is.The republic will survive.Let the chips fall where they may,when they try to take everything from everybody then tshtf.Those earthquakes out in the pacific arn't the only ones,the earth under the elites feet is fracturing,the peoples collective concience is spreading like wildfire,money is their power,the truth is ours,their worthless money will not buy them love from the people when the chickens come home to roost.Here is one of my favorite writing of Thomas Jefferson
"Let us, then, fellow citizens, unite with one heart and one mind. Let us restore to social intercourse that harmony and affection without which liberty and even life itself are but dreary things. And let us reflect that having banished from our land that religious intolerance under which mankind so long bled, we have yet gained little if we countenance a political intolerance as despotic, as wicked, and capable of a bitter and bloody persecutions."
Addendum to the above Crossroads - #17 4:32 PM post's suggested implications:
It is perhaps also worth noting that every denomination of US of A coinage and currency bear the information "In God [not gold] We Trust"; and doubtless was placed there to good purpose.
world grain forecast
"Countries such as India, Argentina, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have placed restrictions on exports of grains, rice and other products.
"India, the third largest exporter of rice, banned the export of non-basmati rice in March.
"India's "export restrictions spread to other suppliers and lead to urgent efforts by rice importing countries to secure supplies -- at any price -- in a thin global market," said Tom Slayton, an economist at Center for Global Development, a Washington-based nongovernmental organization, in a note."
(Apparently, biofuels account for 40% of domestic corn use in the US.)
Rain finally came to East Texas and India, but what if it had not? (I'd love to hear from SonofaFarmer, who has ceased blogging regularly.) Here in Taiwan, we are experiencing historic record rainfall. Extreme weather and its effects on crops, topsoil and society need to be taken into account when making future plans. Diversified local production, especially in staple crops, is needed urgently. Internatinal agribusiness is just not going to be dependable.
Hey RanD -- Chill a bit. I don't worship gold nor do I suggest it. My concerns are a bit more pedestrian. I view gold as a way of keeping people alive so that they can worship whatever God stirs their heart. These aren't mutually exclusive and you shouldn't frame the question that way.
God understands that His/Her children need to eat and I do too. Because we need food and warmth does that mean we worship them?
I don't think so.
I for one would especially like to see those with awareness and some degree of enlightenment very well fed, clothed and secure.
MCR
One year ago found silver mints from the treasury; unfortunately, they did not have yellow metal. Thanks for the tip!
eyeballs... The special genious you display in your 12:03 post at the top of this page moves me to state that such genious is very much appreciated from these quarters.
In a hyper inflationary period, wages always trail prices. Workers will lose buying power faster than their salaries can keep up. In a short time most workers who manage to keep their jobs will only be able to buy a very few necessities. Forget about paying off debts with devalued currency. You'll be more worried about just geting enough food and fuel. Also, consider that businesses will still have to borrow to keep afloat. This borrowing will keep pace with inflation, more or less. Remember that banks essentially rent money as a percentage on the principle. They'll still rake in a fraction of the buying power in circulation as new debt. As new debt anticipates future labor, the crunch will come when the money to buy labor in circulation exceeds any reasonable expectation of future labor.
As far as holding gold and silver, it shouldn't be seen as a means of increasing wealth, but merely an attempt to preserve it. If the currency really does tank, many people will take siver and gold directly. That time may not be soon enough for the many who have no cash. Also, it should be quite evident that there is not enough gold and silver to run the US economy. The economy would have to shrink by quite a bit so that the available gold and silver is roughly equal to the available labor power. That would require a die-back or that precious metals themselves be valued far beyond their scarcity and utility. Ultimately, gold and silver are not the answer to our coming currency crisis. Sane banking and issuance are.
What you're seeing right now is the gummint giving with one hand and taking with another. It is a blatant wealth redistribution scheme. The inflationary (credit expansion and then money-printing) aspects are hand-outs to connected insiders who are telling the government which spigots to open wide. The deflationary (credit destruction and lowered money velocity) aspects help to drive many into poverty, forcing them to liquidate desirable assets like the gold the blog's owner regrets selling.
If you're looking at gold you're looking at the wrong thing right now.
What you should be looking at is the overall system of control, which I suspect this blog's author is currently getting personal attention from. Maybe real personal attention, the kind I and people in my community are getting.
The mixed deflationary and inflationary aspects of the current economic turmoil are engineered and enable powerful insiders to pick winners and losers at a level of detail never possible before computers, the USAPATRIOT act, FISA, and certain surveillance programs the general public isn't aware of. You're witnessing a large scale restructuring of society and an expulsion of undesirables at the same time.
The only question I have to ask Mike is...
Are you targeted?
Dear Michael,
I at one time thought that you truly had a "comprehensive understanding" of "how money works", what constitutes an act of "worship", and that you recognized the paramount distinctions between "things which are of genuine fundamental worth to all living organisms" - such as food and water, and things which are not - such as metal and paper. God knows you've just proven me wrong of what I now realize I merely thought you knew about such matters, and I ask that you forgive me my having been such a fool.
I could elaborate such matters for you in precise and incorruptible detail, but instead humbly ask that you personally learn - by and for yourself - what you sorely need to in order to sufficiently understand such matters. And I assure you, if and when you succeed in properly informing yourself of such things - as have I - we will be of immeasurably greater worth to that which we would serve than we are at this moment.
Sincerely,
RanD
Jeremy -- There have been several large black clouds heavily overhead lately. But they have been able to stop a few bolts of sunlight from breaking through. -- The dinosaurs are becoming desperate but it will not prevent their passing.
Jeremy says:
You're witnessing a large scale restructuring of society and an expulsion of undesirables at the same time.
I agree with the first part, disagree with the second. It's true that "cointelpro" tactics can now minutely target many not-so-famous people, due to the invasion of the mycelia by data miners using the vast resources of today's intelligence community. That is, we are all potentially oppressed on a very personal level by the system we critique.
However, "eliminating" us as forces in the creation of the future depends on how we react to our persecution. If our finances and personal relationships are undermined by deliberate oppression, this is our test as human beings. Do we cave in, go crazy, submit to the dreadful system and accept some safe niche away from the hottest currents of future creation? Or do we accept our sufferings, look after our loved ones in spite of troubles, and keep seeking and sharing the Light?
It's true that many more can be targetted effectively today, not just MLK. But it's also true that, like the Indios of Latin America or the Blacks of South Africa we can, with determination, move through the troubles to do what is absolutely necessary. And we really have no choice.
Below is a translation into English of information that Christopher Columbus recorded in his 1492 log following first contact with the Western Hemisphere's native Arawak men and women of the Caribbean Archipelago --- taken from Howard Zinn's classic work "A People's History of the United States -- 1492 - Present", page one:
"They...brought us parrots and balls of cotton and spears and many other things.... They willingly traded everything they owned.... They were well-built, with good bodies and handsome features.... They do not bear arms, and do not know them, for I showed them a sword, they took it by the edge and cut themselves out of ignorance. They have no iron. Their spears are made of cane.... They would make fine servants.... With fifty men we could subjugate them all and make them do whatever we want."
The Arawaks not long thereafter ceased existing altogether as the people they had been when C. Columbus first met them in 1492.
Today is Monday, Oct. 12, 2009 --- Happy Columbus Day!!!
*****
Zinn's book is an important piece of work, fortunately very much still in print. Reading it can help one realize why the USA is experiencing what it is today, and what to better do about it.
A friend of mine told me that buying gold is the best way to have the government knock on your doors to recuperate the gold in a situation of extreme crisis. So what to do?
Buy it anonymously. How? The answers might come from this Blog...........
Peace to all of you
When petrodollars are pegged to Euros, and the debt here is called up in whatever form, and the dollar collapses, would that not almost immediately force the Amero into existence?
RanD,
Your Zinn excerpt has quelled my ire somewhat, but not completely....
Your overly verbose presumptuous forays into philosophical superiority are a joke man. You have your moments, but few of them are ever devoid of the hint that you like to hear yourself talk as much as anything else.
Your dressing down Mike on some core pragmatism built on a foundation of work that might not have have allowed as much time for such philosophical hair-splitting that you seem all too willing to use as ammo against another.
To the extent that your brilliance truly does match your own estimation of it, why don't you get over yourself and realize how off putting your style can be. And don't forget to wipe your feet...you can speak freely, but your still a guest in this house and the guy you’re treating with wildly misplaced an thinly veiled condescension built it.
PS Here's a riddle for your overdeveloped brain: if the current state of the world is armageddonishly unsustainable, wouldn't that undermine "the all time constant #1 bestseller" as a valid source of wisdom? At the very least perhaps it (and other overrated religious tomes/talismans) have some cavernous omissions when it comes to guiding a civilization. The Left Behind series are runaway bestsellers too. Shall I take your God not gold poetry and your bible reference as indications your you think Jesus is gonna sort this mess out?
Spare me a response in precise and incorruptible detail, I don't need or care to have one. Just remember that famously brilliant atheist Einstein next time you feel a desire to get on your high horse:
“Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.
That's incorruptible bud.
I truly don't know whether to laugh or cry at some of these comments. If Mike advises people to use Purell and wash their hands often in hot water in order to prevent the flu, does that mean he supports forced vaccinations, engineering of killer viruses, the admittedly overblown scare over the dreaded swine flu, or worse yet - worship of hand sanitizer products? I mean really, let's stay on topic. At least talk about something remotely related to the post.
Also for the definition and context-challenged: dollar denominated assets are those that promise to pay a specific dollar amount (and by extension with interest or accrued value, etc.) in the future. Sure, everything can be priced in dollars, even total crap that 10 years ago you couldn't pay people to take away (have you ever checked out Ebay?). That doesn't mean everything will be worth the same relative number of dollars at any given point in the future.
Let's see, is there currently a worldwide market for any particular product or commodity that has retained its relative value over a long period of time? Ok, let's narrow it down to, say, retained its value over thousands of years? Yes? How many of them can you name? What? Only gold and silver?
We didn't invent the metal, and we didn't decide to use it to define a store of value for bartering for other goods and services. Other common ancestors of ours already did that. If you can't touch gold for some altruistic reason, seems like you should give up all your dollars, close your bank accounts, and accept nothing but food and durable products in exchange for your work. Those of us who are not there yet will weigh our options from a different perspective.
Dear Mike,
I/we fully empathize with where you're coming from. I/we too spent many years in that place. But my/our psyche(s) is(are) in a different place, now -- having literally been shown & moved to do what I/we could in response to my/our utterly sincerest of requests that I/we be informed by the source of existence on what I/we, personally, should consider doing to best give my/our life(ves) to help in bringing about a world of human experience that literally benefits everyone, and everything --throughout the field of existence.
"I" did not "set [my]self up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge", nor was I "shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods"; yet, I have personally experienced and was also thereby shown the requisite(s) whereby to understand such things; and thus having intimately experienced and become sufficiently familiarized with them, have become a worthy expositor of them.
Increasingly, others than just myself are also being moved into advanced understanding by & of these truly magnificent evolutionary 'forces' (an acceptable if not exahaustively comprehensive term for these 'phenomena') these days, and are likewise 'spreading the word' of what they/we are experiencing that is 'going on'. You, yourself, speak of regularly receiving 'prescient visions' (or however you choose to define them) of crucial matters that are pertinent to the venue(s) of your expertise.
What I state above I say with unimpeachable personal confidence. I also know with the same absolute self-conviction that every living human being throughout the entirety of existence is as capable of achieving and experiencing and knowing exactly what it is that I do and 'RanD' does regarding such matters as are being articulated here with utter confidence, sincerity, and without any need or desire whatsoever of directing invective or exercising one-upmanship towards anyone or anything that is perhaps not yet able to accept where I/RanD is/are coming from and talking about.
*****
I/we love you, dear friend Mike; your words have made me/us happier and healthier persons than ever could have been without your God-given work. And I/we are grateful from the bottom of our hearts for your being here doing what you're doing. We thank you!
Sincerely,
Ruthie & David: RanD
I was reading this future trends journal that I've subscribed to, and it was discussing how greatly people are being deceived today by the economy and what they're being told in the media. And then the journal gave this quote which I thought pretty much sums up where the majority of people are today in terms of what they've been buying into:
"In the simplicity of their minds, people more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have such impudence. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and continue to think that there may be some other explanation."
— Adolph Hitler, Mein Kampf
Mike's?
Einstein's?
RayLeeUs'?
RanD's?
businessman's?
Adolph Hitler's?
Jesus'?
Mom's? or Dad's?.....etc etc etc.....
Like it or not, all members of the human estate make their contributions of perspective to the common whole. And, is it not from those perspectives in toto that we are given the exact same body of substance whereby to benefit or impair ourselves therefrom as we might & may choose? Of course in the end, the answer to such a question is always both yours & ours to determine.
Thanks for such a wonderful Columbus Day, guys! Now it's off to the sack for us. Sweet dreams!
Er, could you tell us exactly what you're basing this forecast on? If it's the Fisk article, Mish Shedlock threw some cold water on that:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/ridiculous-hype-over-secret-oil.html
Not saying he's right but he definitely understands the currency markets a hell of a lot better than I do. And Charles Hugh Smith is actually predicting a major dollar *rally* based on technical analysis of the USD index:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct09/dollar-rally10-09.html
To top it off, Time magazine is telling investors that they should bet against the dollar, an invitation to go long if I've ever seen one.
So what gives? For the record, I am expecting something "bad" to happen to the dollar, or I wouldn't have 90% of my assets in G&S bullion and mining and energy stocks. But I don't see it happening overnight, and all this doomsday rhetoric based on "inside" information is getting a bit old. First Fisk, then Keiser, now Ruppert...could we actually *see* the tea leaves, please?
There’s a major debate between fans of hyperinflation and deflation. People are mad to predict which it will be, so they can decide what to buy, what to sell, and when to head for the hills. I seriously doubt whether the long-term future can be calculated, even by the massive computer banks at Goldman Sachs.
What to buy? There are so many ways to lose land or a house: fire, social decay, confiscation by the government for taxes, for drugs (possibly planted), or accusations of terrorism, or for “imminent domain” or having it requisitioned by “the government” or “the army” (whichever army happens to be passing through).
How secure is gold? If you store it at home, there is theft. If you store it outside, there’s the possibility that it is gone when you go back. It is heavy to carry. After raiding Montezuma’s palace, Spanish soldiers were pursued by the Aztecs across the many canals of the capital city. Rather than let go of the gold, many drowned in the canals. Taiwanese businessmen have gone to China wearing thousands of dollars worth of gold and a Rolex watch, only to disappear forever in that poor country.
“All your private property is target for your enemy.”
– Jefferson Airplane, back in another era.
I suggest that we use wealth to strengthen the micro-worlds around us. What will we need later? What will the people around us need? What do the people around us need now, that will make them better partners in the coming time? As for storing value, I refer to the words of Jesus, long ago abandoned by virtually all professional Christian hierarchies:
"Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust destroy, and where thieves break in and steal. But store up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where moth and rust do not destroy, and where thieves do not break in and steal. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.
Matthew 6:19-21
If, unlike most Christian religions, one sees “heaven” as being available in the here and now, this strikes me as very apt investment advice.
Not really trying to preach, just to offer serious commentary. Buying stuff will not save you. Infusing health into the Life around you, on the other hand, may save a great deal.
Mike, this comment you made to RanD at 11:23AM, " Your overly verbose presumptuous forays into philosophical superiority are a joke man. You have your moments, but few of them are ever devoid of the hint that you like to hear yourself talk as much as anything else. " is spot on. But on the other hand, his/their, or is it her/their " mysterious " musings do provide for some regular amusement :-)
Tea? My favourite cuppa! I'll have a go.
Have you missed the news that China is mobilising it's currency reserves? (google it)
...circa $2 trillion to spend.
They will not be buying US manufactured goods (ain't any) over EU engineering (= good for EU bad for US.)
Their reserves are held in (low yielding) US gov bonds, which will be sold to buy stuff (selling $$$) but the bad news is for future US bond sales, no-one will be buying US debt once China stop ;)
I suspect Mike is advising people to buy Gold now, before China start to sell off those treasuries, which is when the $$ will tank and prices for imported goods will sky rocket.
Course I am more concerned about the effects on the £ if anyone would like to speculate ;)
Well, I'm cultivating lots and lots of friends (and I've joined Freecycle) . . . plus I'm buying lots of what we normally use around the house and/or eat anyway (when it's reduced, or on special). I also see the sweet potato starting to spread like wild fire, and I'm currently eyeing my growing collection of seeds, and trucking in soil and nutrients. The grey water is nurturing a collection of baby pecan trees, and the two very large rain water tanks we installed last year are full. Also have a growing collection of empty wine bottles and jars that I want to fill with home made wine and preserves (I guess that's good currency too).
MCR -
Would like to hear your comments on this article:
Energy Crisis Postponed
If the link doesn't work, google Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and find article titled: Energy crisis is postponed as new gas rescues the world
Thanks
Mike and Hotspringswizard...I had a very direct exchange with RanD maybe six months ago about their postings also, and I was pretty much on the same page as what you guys have mentioned.
I know if you weren't around back then you're probably going to find this one hard to swallow, but I believe their postings have actually improved.
Russia and China sign agreements worth US$3.5bn
OregonSurvivor:
Mountains are not just "energy reserves". They are mountains. They are the Earth. sheesh...
To Trobadorem,
Go to a coin store and buy the gold and silver with cash. No muse no fuss, no record of who you are. (Sometimes pawn shops have bullion, too.)
To MCR,
Thanks again for all your work and messages. My Buddy would love your Rags...
Mike and cie,
Ouf, your judgment is harsh in relation to RanDs pogsting. Why this wolf gathering around someone that sends comments that do not seem to be meant to hurt but to exchange. Does it need to go to that level. I am surprised.
That being said, i am happy i red this blog on gold for what eyeballs have communicated, and i bring back his citation again:
"Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust destroy, and where thieves break in and steal. But store up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where moth and rust do not destroy, and where thieves do not break in and steal. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.
Matthew 6:19-21
It does cover the essential, is'nt we are all here exchanging among us so to find that treasure..e.the uncorruptible one...
Best regards
PS: Thanks Jeremy for your answer...but how can test and see that it is real gold?
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