Thursday, April 23, 2009



Michael C. Ruppert

April 22, 2009, 7:30 PM PDT --

Even as the great corporate citizen Ali Velshi of CNN spews nonsense about a possible, imminent recovery; a new wave of foreclosures -- which FORBES attributes to a crumbling economy (No shit!) -- is about to make the first one look like a picnic. Nissan, Toyota and Honda are about to report losses. Japan is contemplating revising its GDP estimate downward to a negative 3%. Deflation is erupting in Europe... And poor Britain -- which is getting hammered at every turn -- has just reported the first drop in retail prices on High Street since 1960. (The death of snobbery. They actually had to lower the prices!)... Next year each Brit will pay an additional five thousand pounds in taxes while the government is about to begin en masse layoffs of civil servants. I am no fan of kings and princes. It's not the Royals I care about. There is too much Tom Paine in me. But I have this huge soft spot for the UK in my heart. In WWII my father was stationed in Bassingbourne with the 324th Squadron of the 91st Bomb Group (Heavy). He was a gunner and gunnery instructor in B17s. He was a hero. After emailing ahead I visited Bassingbourne in early May of 2005 and half the town turned out in authentic WWII U.S. and British regalia to welcome me. They had Tommy guns and heavy trucks, all spit shined and totally authentic. We occupied a pub where I had roast beef and Yorkshire pudding.

The WSJ is making a deal saying that China might actually be able to achieve 8% growth this year. Yeah right... The whole world is counting on China to grow and the dinos on Wall Street believe that China will then be able to buy more of our our debt.... Excuse me but if China were to achieve 8% growth in the face of Peak Oil the effects will be absolutely brutal here. With an aggregate global decline rate I estimate at between 7-9%, China's going to get all the oil it needs so it can grow and buy and lend to the rest of the world which is going to drop America like a hot rock. Oil prices will spike madly if the Chinese growth engine hits afterburner. A bad sign is that Chinese demand for new cars is up. But I'm not counting on China holding it together much longer. Maybe China and Ali Velshi are talking to each other... In either scenario we still have certain collapse.

Things are catching up here at home. As I predicted, GM is going under. A Chapter 11 filing will probably wipe out all of GMs dealers. According to U.S.A. Today the filing will instantly freeze GMs payments/reimbursements to dealers for already performed warranty repairs. By now that means shut-down time because there won't be any money to make payroll. And there's no money to lend to dealers while the FDIC is nearly insolvent as the list of "problem institutions" mushrooms. Chrysler looks to be pretty close behind.

No time to be shy now... Here's what's coming over -- I would estimate -- the next two years: FDIC insolvency; Treasury default, the dumping of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency (I started predicting that in maybe 2002); hyperinflation; bankruptcy of the Federal Reserve; and collapse of the United States government as we know it. Federal Reserve notes are legal tender for all debts public and private. What does it mean if the privately-owned Fed goes bankrupt? Our map doesn't see that territory yet. -- Oh yes, and a new strain of swine flu has been discovered in humans in San Diego... And farmers are committing mass suicide in India and Africa because they can't pay the loans they used to grow their crops or they are being undercut by large corporations. I suspect that inflation is much more contagious than deflation. I don;t know how hard that stage will hit here. But deflation in any industrialized nation is like blood in the water. CoLLapse will looking like a feeding frenzy as the carcasses get stripped.

The good news: Las Vegas is decaying like the corpse it is. Last night I watched a Dan Rather special on how bad things are there. Ugly! And yet the Mayor was insisting that the answer was to build more and bigger hotels to bring the people back... I call that the Easter Island syndrome. If anything symbolizes the worst of the old paradigm it's Las Vegas. It has to die so that others around the country will start to grasp that what is happening here is not just a bump in the road.

I wrote a pretty good book and was the subject of what I suspect is going to be a pretty good movie: CoLLapse that can soften the end result of all this. I haven't seen any of the movie yet. But was all this work by so many people in the nick of time or too late? I am beginning to think we'll look back and say the former.

We'll start to find out on May 1st. The sales numbers will tell us everything as we watch them build over time. If we're strong out of the gate we have a huge advantage.

Hang tough and find something to hug.


The Earth in Eight Verses (archive)

Jenna Orkin

"This is your garden," God told Man,
"To cultivate." (Was that Voltaire?)
Man looked and said, "In my opinion
it is good, this, my dominion."

But Paradise soon lost its charm
as Man grew restless and ambitious.
Striking out, exploratory,
he sought ever greater glory.

And it was also good as he
plumbed sea, tamed forest, so he thought
they partook of Infinity
and having been, must always be.

His cities grew and towers rose.
Man was fruitful, multiplied.
He said, "In order to stay Master,
I must build more, higher, faster."

The prophets railed, those wild-eyed fools,
"What about the Pygmy Owl?
Arroyo Toad? Bluecrested tit?"
Man shrugged, said, "Never heard of it.

Eat, drink, be merry. Seize the day
for it is yours. The time is Now.
Can't you see the only thing
that matters is that I am king?"

While far away, beneath the seas
the fish were gone. In desert, wood,
without a sound, a word or tear
ten thousand species died each year.

The earth grew warm and oceans rose.
Birds and plants died off til as
in tales of Midas told of yore
there was no kingdom anymore.
From Jenna Orkin:

Bernanke Says Crisis Damage Likely to Be Long Lasting
but neglects to say how long... or how damaging.
Oil Prices Resist World's Recession Trend
Not a peep about Peak Oil when you can blame it on the Middle East.
"Stabilization of the oil price is also a victory for the OPEC cartel, which has succeeded in cutting output sharply to match lower demand."
Next Wave of Foreclosures (from Rice Farmer)
Morgan Stanley Revenues fall 62%
Obama Assures No Prosecution for CIA Interrogators
Walmart to Boost Rooftop Solar at its California Stores
California Sets All Time Unemployment Record
Recession Slams Georgia Agriculture
Desperate Measures (From Rice Farmer)
Beware Green Jobs, the New Sub-Prime
Anguish of Story Can Haunt Journalists
World Should Look to Chaos to Solve Problems (from Rice Farmer)
Works for us. - JO

There's a pronounced disconnect between the projected booming growth of China's production and military power, and on the other hand, its desperate measures to secure basic resources.
IMF Projects China 2009 Growth at 6.5%
China to Increase Naval Power
Cash Rich Chinese Are Looking for American Homes!
China's Power Output May Deepen to 4% in April
China Goes to Latin America for Oil, Minerals and Water
Obama Afghan Plan May Founder as Local Clashes Weaken Strategy
Pakistan a Mortal Threat to the World
Japan Records Worst Trade Deficit for Thirty Years
Japan Adopts BNP Policy: Pays Foreigners to Go Home

Energy Alarm Sounding for EU
Oil Baron Warns of Trouble in the North Sea
UK: Forget Big Projects and Start Sharing Desks, Civil Servants Told
Jobless Hits 2.1Million Pounds as Public Debt Soars
A Fig Leaf to Cover the Real Crisis
World's Oldest Profession Hit by Recession
Shunned Belarus Handed Invitation from EU (from Rice Farmer)

Middle East
Saudi Khurais Field: Looks Like Easy Oil May Be Gone From Arabia Too

Entire Country of Ghana in Blackout for Seven Hours

Antarctic Ice Growing, Not Shrinking
Does anyone else get the feeling that Fox News, the main purveyor of this latest "good news" on global warming, is leaving something out? A brief visit to the website of The Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, which did the study making this announcement, reveals that among others, its missions are to:

Enhance Australian leadership in Antarctic affairs and advance Australia's objectives for its Antarctic Territory and Exclusive Economic Zones

Produce expertly-trained scientists with international experience, skills in research, its broad application and its role in enterprise and policy.

Encourage the realisation of policy and commercial opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.

Quite an agenda for an allegedly independent scientific body.


Dana said...

Jenna, a poet? it is as if you have channeled the themes of one of the great English poets!


I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert ... Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works ye mighty and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

-- Percy Bysshe Shelley

History Teacher said...

I have a question. In the case of hyperinflation, what happens to home prices? My home is currently valued in the neighborhood of $400,000. If there is hyperinflation, or the dollar goes completely out of business, what happens?

mark eloheim said...

There is always Hope, as Mike and Jenna have so Wonderfully Shared with blog Readers!

Please visit~~~

The Rainbow Bridge To Peace On Earth!!!

Especially Tabs 777 and ~Help~

Love Always!!!
Mark Anthony Eloheim
Happy Camp
Karuk Nation
Turtle Island

ecosutra said...

Mike I was thinking the same thing last night. 1 - its too late for Collapse. For one, people are burnt out on all the movies about the end times. 2012 is still not released. I wonder if people are getting numb like my fellow Jews in cattle cars off to concentration camps. Im sorry, I just studied so much about the Holocaust and see similar behaviors from Americans as they walk their own trail of tears. Cheney really did strip this nation of its ethics.

And inflation?
Economic warfare is a ruthless game and they will consolidate and destroy any potential for green energy. We can either transition sooner and have the products available now, or inflation on green energy is what we will run in to. A solar panel that cost today $100 dollars will cost thousands. Please see that as my warning to you, the most important forecast to see. Please do not be the ones getting in line when it becomes harder to acquire green technology. Lines….soup kitchens. Please, lets not be a part of that.

A peon said...

This is the best site I've found to counter Global Warming skepticism: A Few Things Ill Considered:How To Talk To A Climate SkepticHere is it's answers to the growing Anarctic Ice claim:

F.Kamilov said...

Interesting, the bit about Australian designs on Antarctica. So now the Australians, another upstart nation of "transplanted" Anglo-Saxon settlers and other immigrants, is thinking of taking on a regional imperialistic role in its own "niche", in the manner of its elder US sister, and mother the UK? Tsk tsk, a bit too belated I am sure, for such ambitions now. They should have had a go 50 years ago instead. They would have been nearing the end of their "tenure" by now.

I have a book "Climate Crash" by John D. Cox - which Mike publicised widely on FTW when it was released a few years ago. Contrary to what the environmentalist crowd says, this book highlights the well known theory that Earth's natural weather cycles are those of recurrent Ice Ages interspersed with warm phases, and the current Holocene or "Warm Period" is at the end of its scientifically allotted 10000 years. Even "global warming" could bring on effects that would interfere with the with the weather patterns in the Atlantic littoral, leading to another ice age in Europe and North America.

F.Kamilov said...

MCR's new book doesn't seem to have made it to yet. Usually, Amazon has a pre-ordering option for titles that are to be released some weeks later - but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

gaelicgirl said...

Yes, I went to amazon to pre-order, but nothing comes up on that book title. Nor did there seem to be any way to order the book on the rubicon website. What's the scoop on ordering? It needs to be more clear if Mike wants to break onto the lists.

kiki said...

I think there is a way for Mikes book to reach the top 100 at Amazon if most people order on the same day but I don't know the details. I certainly will participate if we are told a date to order from Amazon.

John said...

In response to History Teacher's question about housing prices and inflation:

My guess is that once inflation starts to rise I think it will mark the bottom of the housing collapse and prices will remain flat for a while. Inflation should counter falling home values, so even if the value of the property drops the price will stay flat due to inflation. It all depends on how high inflation gets and when.

Jenna Orkin said...

re: is it too late?

from Mark Robinowitz:

The 2005 "Hirsch Report" commissioned by the US Department of Energy was a report about the implications of Peak Oil, prepared by the military / intelligence contractor Science Applications International Corporation. It concluded that it would require two decades of intense efforts to mitigate the impacts of Peak Oil, and that failing to do preparation and mitigation would have massive economic impacts. The report considered toxic, centralized technologies as tar sands and coal-to-liquids to be acceptable, and did not make much effort to suggest more sane solutions would be decentralization, relocalization and power down approaches. But despite this approach, it subtly said - if reading between the lines - that Jimmy Carter was right and we blew it when our society ignored the warnings of the 1970s energy crises.

Easy mitigation of the energy crisis is not possible because Carter was sabotaged. The same forces that toppled the Carter administration are still running the show: militarism, covert intelligence agencies, centralized energy companies and the global financial system.

for more information:

Patrick said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Nihil Matters said...

German Economy to Shrink 6% This Year

Sebastian Ronin said...

JO, re “Is it too late?”

Thanks for putting up the Robinowitz quote and for throwing some historical context into this debate.

My own position is that “it” is too late. The academic breakthroughs to make some kind of a start were in place 40 years ago and, had those perceptions been acted on at that time, then the condition that confronts us today might not be as severe as it is. Rachel Carson/Silent Spring 1968, King Hubbert/U.S. Peak 1971, Small is Beautiful/Schumacher 1972, the first Club of Rome Report, Limits to Growth/1973…coupled with the physical 70’s embargo (manufactured by the Sisters or otherwise), all taken together were the canary chirping its fool head off in the coal mine. Introduction of Green parties, the Olduvai Theory, etc. all preceded the watershed of Peak Oil acknowledgment.

And yes, as Robinowitz points out, “The same forces that toppled the Carter administration are still running the show: militarism, covert intelligence agencies, centralized energy companies and the global financial system.” Such is the world of realpolitik. What is not mentioned is that we are still straddled (and choked?) with the same major institutional impediment to social progress as we were 40 years ago, and 50 years ago at the time of President Eisenhower’s fascist warnings: the sacred and dumb cow of mass democracy. The “people” yearn, nay, they demand, insist, plead, beg, etc. to have sunshine blown up their collective assholes. And guess what? There are always enough obscenely overpaid whores, i.e. Congressional and Parliamentary politicians, who will gladly offer exactly that.

As much as I respect MCR for leaning towards the side of optimism, i.e. “But was all this work by so many people in the nick of time or too late? I am beginning to think we'll look back and say the former,” personally I am not holding my breath. Those who are in the loop constitute a mere sliver. How will the mass react and how will it be coordinated, guided is the true political challenge. The PTB (God, I loathe that wanker non-descript) have made their decisions, as we are aware, and are prepared for clampdown. Why this shocks, surprises, ruffles liberal feathers is beyond me. What else are they going to do?

The condition unfolds, it matures, it is not yet at crisis stage. Can the explosion of social chaos be contained? Not bloody likely. If the philosophy misses the mark, pictures will always serve the purpose of filling in. Politically mounting the wild stallion of revolution is one thing; taming the beast is quite another. And if that picture won’t do: the condition is the anvil; political decisions crafted and taken constitute the hammer; what stands to be molded remains to be seen.

We and our condition are not unique. The challenge remains the same: what is to be done?

Paul Davis said...

Hi Mike/Jenna,

Not really a comment for posting (unless you want to) but I have put a link for the new book on my home page at

Also, your UK readers may be interested about a project a few locals are starting here in west London called the Hounslow Community Farming Project.

We're looking to take unused public allotments (local authority areas for rent where the public can grow their own veg etc) and transform them into urban farms growing produce to sell locally.

The projects aims to employ young and disadvantaged local people, train them how to grow food and also let them study for recognised qualifications so they can then take and apply their new skills elswhere around the city and country.

The project has a group page on my site at



Nihil Matters said...

China Increases Gold Reserves 76% to Fifth-Largest

MCR said...

KIKI -- Making Amazon's top 100 does absolutely nothing. Rubicon went as high as #33 at Amazon after its release. Any book has to make roughly Amazon's top five to make the NY Times list and the conventional wisdom is that making #1 at Amazon guarantees a spot on the NY Times top ten list.


bostx said...

An excellent analysis - Deflation is here to stay

Peter J. Nickitas said...

Jenna and Mike:

Please see the following link to Money & Markets on the troubled state of the Fed, and the contrast between its present balance sheet and its 2007 balance sheet.

Ecosutra, your points are well taken, inclusive of your discussion of HaShoah and the cost of solar panels.

Has anyone a story to share on local currencies? Does anyone have insight on the effect of P.L. 107-56 (I only refer to it as the P.A.T.R.I.O.T. Act for contextual understanding) on the issuance of local currencies, and measures such as that adopted by Worgl, Austria, to charge a fee for periodic stamps, collected by the municipal government to fund municipal functions,to maintain the face value of the local currency?

Peter J. of Minneapolis

kiki said...

What is the time frame for making the book #1 at amazon then ? or is there another way we can help get it on the NY Times Bestseller list ? or yet another preference you may have ? I'm buying a few to pass around so just point the way and I'm there, as I'm sure are many others in your corner. Tis good to have you back for awhile and thank you one and all for the great conversation and posts :-)

Loveandlight said...

Those last two links look very interesting, so I hope nobody will object if I convert them into hyperlinks so that more people will read them.

Deflation here to stayThe Fed: Our Next Troubled BankBTW, Google doesn't make it easy to post hyperlinks in Blogger comments, so be sure when you make hyperlinks to hit return (enter) twice between each link and between whatever text is above or below your links.

Sebastian Ronin said...

If Britain were to become the G-8's first official bankruptcy, as the following article claims, things would shift significantly:

Two stats jumped off the page of this article. Firstly, investors got spooked after the government's annual budget revealed borrowing would soar to levels not seen since the second world war, with a debt to gross domestic product ratio rising close to 80% from today's 50%.Secondly, the government intends to increase the top tax rate in the country from 40% to 50%. Most sane economists know that the magic taxation threshold of +/- 41% cannot safely be pushed onto taxpayers. So the question that is begged is: does the British government's intent have not the slightest thing to do with safety?

pstajk said...

I'm with Ronin on this post.

Mike, in time or too late for what? In time for us to really acknowledge the screaming locomotive approaching from the horizon. I see it. Your words on this blog have convinced me. Another book is just another book and the same with another movie.

I browse this site everyday because a part of me is looking for guidance, a part for reassurance, a part for sanity, and a part for fulfillment - so I know that what I think and believe is true. Your words online are enough.

ecosutra said...

Mike, I really cherish your predictions. You dont know what it is like for me to announce your predictions to a bunch of elitist Atlanta old friends all this time throughout the years. I have a ton of emails that I group out and have sacrificed my ego to try and inform old friends your predictions. Now as all these years of FTW come to pass, and my conspiracy becomes reality. I still get no traction out of them. They take the blue pill. I love getting a forecast of things to come when they are in a 3 month range. Like this winter was classic. We were all waiting for March for the crash. Where would we be without a $12 trillion stimulus?

In forecasting the next 3-4 months? So far I heard from someone, that China's market collapses in June, bringing September economic tsunami to US. Is that a FTW forecast?

Anyone watching the Climate Change legislation on Cspan?

And 11th hour is now on online

Scott said...

U.S. National Security Adviser Jones gave these remarks at the 45th Munich Conference on Security Policy at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof on February 8, 2009.

"Thank you for that wonderful tribute to Henry Kissinger yesterday. Congratulations. As the most recent National Security Advisor of the United States, I take my daily orders from Dr. Kissinger, filtered down through Generaal Brent Scowcroft and Sandy Berger, who is also here. We have a chain of command in the National Security Council that exists today.

Diaspora said...

HERE WE GO! Things getting out of the control of the handlers; time for false flag?

“U.S. swine flu outbreak confirmed:
GENEVA — The World Health Organization (WHO) voiced concern today at a confirmed outbreak of swine flu in the United States and what it called more than 800 human “influenza-like” cases in Mexico, including about 60 deaths.”


Unusually, said the CDC's Nancy Cox, the viruses all appear to carry genes from swine flu, avian flu and human flu viruses from North America, Europe and Asia.

"We haven't seen this strain before, but we hadn't been looking as intensively as we have," Schuchat said. "It's very possible that this is something new that hasn't been happening before."

Surveillance for and scrutiny of influenza has been stepped up since 2003, when highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza reappeared in Asia. Experts fear this strain, or another strain, could spark a pandemic that could kill millions.”

CDC: Too late to contain swine flu
Thanks to the reader who sent this link to a Reuters report: CDC says too late to contain U.S. flu outbreak. Excerpt:
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday it was too late to contain the swine flu outbreak in the United States. CDC acting director Dr. Richard Besser told reporters in a telephone briefing it was likely too late to try to contain the outbreak, by vaccinating, treating or isolating people.
"There are things that we see that suggest that containment is not very likely," he said.

eyeballs said...

Scott, Incredible heads-up on NSA Jones' opening remarks. He really does say that! I'm not surprised that it's true, but gob-smacked that he would say it openly. He also said this in the speech, just in passing, which I thought was odd. At the end of a list of security threats challenging his office, he adds:

"- And an economic crisis that serves as the foundation of our strength."

I wonder in what sense a worldwide economic meltdown serves as the foundation of "our strength".

He also said it was good to be back in an "altered state". Apparently he felt very free to be blatantly honest that day. And CFR printed it in full. They must be a confident lot indeed.