Sunday, May 31, 2009

OK, THIS IS SERIOUS

by

Michael C. Ruppert

May 28, 2009 7:30 PM, PDT -- Here's the first headline: "Russia Fears Korea Conflict Could Go Nuclear".

There were three humongous stories in the news today about Russia. All are connected. What this one says clearly is that this is serious. Russians are not ones to raise alarm and when they do... everybody listens. Russia has a border with North Korea. Russia is preparing militarily in case the conflict goes hot. That would include containment, possible evacuations, medical treatment, and protection of critical oil and gas infrastructure in the region. With Putin condemning North Korea and Medvedev urging caution against hasty action in the UN, it's clear that Russia is doing some serious back-channeling with Pyongyang and stalling for time. It has alerted the whole world that a nuclear war might be imminent. Russia holds a permanent seat on the UN Security Council with veto power. So does China.

Here's the second headline: “Arctic Natural Gas is Mostly Russian”. This is an absolute min-blower. First, almost all the energy in the Arctic is natural gas and not oil. The USGS survey, just released, says that only 2%-3% of all the oil yet-to-be-discovered is there. That’s nothing and I doubt it’s worth the cost to develop… unless Uncle Sam is hiding something, which I doubt. (Bad for the economy) It’s almost all natural gas and most of that is Russian. But wait a minute… Russia already has the largest natural gas deposits in the world. It’s playing power politics all the way to London with the heat it provides now. Almost all of what’s in the Arctic is in Russian territory. And some 39% of all that natural gas is in the South Kara Sea above Siberia in uncontestable Russian waters.

Catch this quote: “Arctic oil reserves are much smaller than those of natural gas and are unlikely to lead to any shift in world oil balance”.

Russia is holding an amazingly strong energy hand. Whatever the Sarah Palin crowd is thinking there might be in the Arctic just ain’t there and Russia has the best energy future of any country in the world… for as long as that lasts.

Now the last headline:”Iraq deal to revive gas pipeline to Europe”. There’s a great map linked to this story. Here’s the short version: Western Europe, NATO and the U.S. want gas pipeline that will bypass Russia. It’s called Nabucco. It will run from northwestern Iraq through Turkey and end in Vienna. It is competing against a Russian pipeline called South Stream. That pipeline will also serve Rumania and Austria but will add Greece and Italy. I do not think both can be built given the lack of financing and the collapsing economies of Eastern Europe. I suspect that both cannot be funded. The Russians offer a better deal for Europe. Now couple that with the above.

I keep coming back to geography as the ruling power in collapse. Like others on this list I see eventual Russian hegemony over Europe. I don’t take it personally and, in fact it is logical. We should focus on our neighborhoods first and think less about contesting no-win situations at long range. The United States and Russia are partners of necessity in stabilizing the world. Russia knows and respects – I believe – the power of geography. They wouldn’t waste the energy to try and rule North America. The great increase in energy reserves from the second story says that Russia must be respected.

And as for Korea, I don’t know who or what is pushing Pyongyang’s buttons but I’m certain someone is. I see only three possible candidates: Russia, China, and the United States. I don’t know. But if Russia is concerned then I am concerned and I can guarantee that Russia will be quick to pounce on any opportunities that arise. It has huge investments in oil and gas along its Pacific coast.

There’s kind of a rule in nuclear confrontations. If one country draws its weapon, everybody who has one draws theirs too. That would include Pakistan and India.

MCR
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From Jenna Orkin:

US
US Deploys Jets as North Korean Tensions Rise
Japan Panel Wants First Strike Ability (from Rice Farmer)
Extra US Troops in Afghanistan by Mid July
Obama Asks Australia to Take Detainees
The island does have a track record in that department after all, as well as a formidable moat.
DHS Losing Lead Cyber Role
Homeland Security Taps SciFi Writers (from Rice Farmer)
About 12% of US Homeowners Late Paying or Foreclosed
The US Housing Market's Very Sobering News
Our Crumbling Foundation (from Rice Farmer)
Smart Grid Can't Outwit Recession (from Rice Farmer)
Once Considered Unthinkable, Sales Taxes Get Fresh Look (from Rice Farmer)

Europe
Why the Wheels Fell Off Germany's Economic Model
MoD Admits Use of Controversial "Enhanced Blas" Weapons in Afghanistan

Russia/Middle East/Asia
Russia: Oil Field Reserve Proposed
Rosneft Posts 20% Fall in Q1 Profit
Belarus Loan Shelved on Solvency Fears
Iraq Redux? Obama Seeks Funds for Pakistan "Super Embassy" (from Rice Farmer)
North Korea Could Opt for Devastating Land Assault (from Rice Farmer)
China: Experts [Say] Huge Holding of US Bonds Risky

Environment/Climate Change
Aerosols Drive Much Arctic Warming, Scientists Find
55 Whales Die After Beaching in South Africa
Wild Donkeys Overrun Cyprus Villages
American Academy of Environmental Medicine Calls for Immediate Moratorium on Genetically Modified Food (from Rice Farmer)
Organic Dairies Watch the Good Times Turn Bad
Terra Madre
Slow food project

Invention/Technology
Scientists Develop Virus that Wipes Out Cancer Cells
World's First Battery Fueled By Air
Technology Seen Slashing Battery Recharge Time, Weight
Tiny Invisibility Cloak is Like a Magic Carpet
Slashproof Clothing
Lab Comes Up With Technology to Determine Where Food Was Grown
Or "Protectionism and Xenophobia Hit Shelves at a Supermarket Near You"
Human Speech Traced to Talking Fish
Language Gene Alters Mouse Squeaks

Generation Gap
UK: Record Numbers Want Assisted Death
1 in 500 Babies Now Born Drug Dependent
UK: Government Fights For Numbers Secrecy on Abortions
Autism: Study Finds 12-Fold Rise in Cases
Child Porn Goes Uninvestigated Amid Cash Crisis
British Firms Join School Gardens Campaign

16 comments:

Jenna Orkin said...

gaelic girl
the link's fixed

A peon said...

Obama administration sides with Saudis on 9/11 suit

Lenny said...

Something is happening but you don't know what it is
Do you Mister Jones?
Dylan

Brendan Carmody said...

Good to see the energy section on the news poll, the new air breathing lithium battery posted sounds promising and maybe you might have also seen origin oil's new cracking technique for Algae Oil using a closed loop system that may eventually lead to less energy being used to produce oil, (but by no means a single solution to replacing fossil oil)
http://www.originoil.com/

In addition to fossil oil anyone and I'm guessing allot of people who come to this forum have seen the documentary "a crude awakening" .
In regards to this topic there is a site that has more content on the subject of peak oil using some of the same sources as the film but goes more in depth in the science of fossilised oil.

http://www.abc.net.au/science/crude/

Parts 1,2,3 at the above site and additional content come from core members of the oil age including the grandson of the first man to spring oil out of the ground in the USA and I think the world.
great stuff

josh said...

I'm reminded of Ch. 7 of Rubicon right now...the glaring difference being that it is the U.S., not Russia, who appears to be in dire straits.
The notion that Russia wouldn't try to rule America makes a lot of sense. Really, aside from a military we can't really afford anymore, what's there to rule that would be worth the time, money and energy? The manufacturing base is long gone, the financial sector is increasingly transparent in its fraudulence, and the population is still largely frozen in backwards thought, somewhat diminishing the value of our human capital.
We do need to focus on our neighborhoods. Our towns and cities. But I fear that as long as most people sit around, waiting to be able to go back to the mall to buy shit they don't need with money they don't have - as our President has all but promised they will again be able to do one day - then it appears the fate of America as a union will go the way of the dinosaurs so frequently alluded to here.

Jacob said...

There is not going to be a "nuclear war" not now not ever. There can be no winners in an actual exchange and no power can benifit; the computer in WarGames had that one figured out. This is constant, neverending power play that will continue probably for centuries if not millenia to come in one form or another.

ecosutra said...

i usually stay away from the Armory Lovins crew. I don't believe Market can move us with the belligerence I am getting from all sides. Green market transformation is as lost at sea as the Air France flight. To all my old school yuppie friends who dont want to listen.

So now I listened to a home town Atlanta CEO of Anderson Carpets speak at TED. Wow, a southern accent inside of TED. Could this be happening? Well I even cried at the end, you have to wait till the end. Listen to his voice, its in pain.

Does this give you all any hope? The formulas were over my head.


TED Talks
Ray Anderson on the business logic of sustainability

At his carpet company, Ray Anderson has increased sales and doubled profits while turning the traditional “take / make / waste” industrial system on its head. In a gentle, understated way, he shares a powerful vision for sustainable commerce.

http://www.grist.org/article/2009-05-31-ray-anderson-sustainability/

mrs p said...

Dinosaurs I can handle, (I'm good with animals), but singed, hairless w/peeling skin I cannot! Pass the Vodka! (in this west coast cave it would have to be Guiness or tequilla) damn we're close to Russia over here and me thinks I'll send some cooling vibrations due North straight up the 120 degree W parralell to the Artic sea and beyond to Moscow. "I can almost see Russia from my back yard!" Not really but it does look to the North. I'm lucky if I can see San Onofre but I'll try to invision it, for what it's worth.

Japan, Hawaii, West Coast will get it first. Where's my Norweigen kelp tablets? (iodine). Luv yous, mrsp

OrwellianUK said...

This Korean Crisis looks to me like the 'test' many in the Elite said Obama would face in his first 6 months in office.

Funny how they were all so certain. If I was to hazard a guess, I would say that of the three possible culprits Mike suggested may be pushing N. Koreas buttons, it would be the US who would get my bet.

OrwellianUK said...

Destabilisation?
Iran Blames US for Mosque BombingThis one's a bit off topic but interesting dot-joining regarding previous culprits

F.Kamilov said...

I have been telling you all along, for a long time, that the future of the world belongs to Russia.

F.Kamilov said...

Regarding the Iranian mosque bombing, mentioned above, in Zahidan on the 28th of May: Pakistan is involved. Its ISI intelligence agency supports an anti-Iranian Shi'ite outfit "Jundullah", of whom Iran hanged three members for the bombing, in public, in Zahidan two days after the event. They were all Pakistanis. Following the hanging, Iran closed its border with Pakistan and moved a diplomatic protest. This is a significant event between these otherwise placid neighbours; it could jeopardise the proposed IPI gas pipeline project.

Michiel said...

I would like to pose everyone, European or otherwise, a question since the European parlamentary election are coming up:

Would you vote for a party that wants to increase the power and/or size of the European Union, or would you vote for a party against it?

I am curious to whatever you might vote for, in the light of peak oil etc.

Myself, I vote in favor of expanding the union so we can work more closely on our energy future as wel as epanding our academic capabilities. I am furthermore in the camp of accepting Russian influence of this continent.

Gustav said...

F.Kamilov - I disagree.

First - If Russia would make ANY move, wich you suggested in your previous posts, it would be immediately demonised in the world media - wich through history has allways been half of battle.

So, for you, this is the first half of battle lost.

Second - whatever temporary gain Russia would get by whatever agressive action, in the long run, it would starve itself over a longer period of this aggressivness. People of Europe will not just lower their heads - we have a long memory... You would eventually have to retreat back to the limits that you live in today (or even further back). See also the first reason above (media war).

Third option - going nuclear? - forget it.

Fourth option - going biological? - maybe, but only if you could achieve total deniability (in today's level of science virtually impossible - hint: 100bn spores per gramme of anthrax in USA - who made that?) - so, forget it also.

Fifth option - economy war? - I think you allready lost that one...

Sixth option - your oil and gas resources? - it's a two-edged sword - the more you have, the bigger target you are. China invaded you many times in the past, and not so recent past at that. You think the Chinese do not learn from their mistakes?


Anyways, with dwindling resources, it will not be viable to hold together large empires and promote expansionism. Instead, I belive, that large states will dissolve into smaller, more manegable units.


Greetings.

Joey said...

TED Talks
Are carpets really "sustainable"??

I mean really who needs them???

They are marginally useful for sheet mulching though, I must admit.



==========
Ray Anderson on the business logic of sustainability

At his carpet company, Ray Anderson has increased sales and doubled profits while turning the traditional “take / make / waste” industrial system on its head. In a gentle, understated way, he shares a powerful vision for sustainable commerce.

WXXX said...

Noticed a little oddity in the May 25 entries of the KCNA (N.Korean news service). Note that the announcement of the nuclear test is followed by a message of condolence from Kim Jong Il to the widow and family of Roh Moo Hyun. Kim attributes the death to an "accident," when in fact it was an apparent suicide. Roh was a propenent of the "sunshine policy" towards the North, but since his downfall, hostilities have only increased between the Koreas.