Sunday, January 18, 2009

CIVIL UNREST

It Seems as if The World is Holding Its Breath for The Inauguration But…

By

Michael C. Ruppert

(c) Copyright 2009, Michael C. Ruppert. All Rights Reserved.

Jan. 18, 2009 – Perhaps we should be holding our breaths for something else; something that is breaking out all over the world. Civil unrest now moves from a back to a front burner as a landmark on our map and a pressing issue for our discussion.

On January 16th and 17th I saw (either) cowardice or duplicity on the part of mainstream media. Chesley Sullenberger is a great pilot. Coming from an Air Force/aviation family I would be honored to shake his hand. The U.S. Air miracle on the Hudson was indeed that. But for almost 36 hours I watched in rage as the mainstream media, especially CNN, played the same four of five clips endlessly, over and over, rehashing the rehash – hour after hour. The anchors and their producers were either taking a break or regrouping. Several looked very bored. Not since 9-11 have I seen American media shut down news coverage of other important events to such a degree. But the US Air crash landing wasn't a 9-11 was it?

On January 16th the United States shed another 21,000 jobs… in one day. Globally, the economic collapse is hitting other industrialized countries much harder than here. Around the world "emerging" bourses are imploding at a faster rate than ours. Perhaps we should rename them as "disappearing markets" now. The disappearing act has hit turbo charge in Europe as a result of a now three-week old lack of Russian natural gas. Triggered by the economic collapse and compounded by human suffering in unheated, near-zero weather, riots – big ones – have erupted from Latvia in the North, to Sofia in the South. There is serious street fighting. Around the world, from China, to India, to Europe, industrialized nations are "frantically" preparing for civil unrest (China at a very rapid pace). Of course our map says that the US, the UK, Russia and a few others have been preparing for this for years.

Arab nations have lost $2.5 trillion (40% of their investments) thus far in the collapse and have postponed or cancelled 60% of their new development projects… You know? Those hotels where you can snow ski inside when it's 112 outside? That kind of a shutdown will cause the Arab oil-producing nations to explode in civil unrest as aggravated poverty, starvation and disease hit home in short order. Collapsed oil prices have exposed the lack of economic stamina in the region. (You thought Americans were foolish spenders.) The luxuries of the princes will now stand starkly contrasted against the barren desert of their subjects' lives. Thus, geography is giving us our first major political tectonic fault line. From the Baltic south, through Greece, into Turkey, then fanning out across the Middle East is a new frontier of soon-to-be flaming unrest

Unrest will happen here and it will happen in an earthshaking fashion within the next year. Could the evidence supporting this conclusion have been missed as we watched footage on the Hudson for the thirty-second time in 36 hours? Couldn't they have squeezed any of this other news in… somewhere?

WHILE WE WERE SLEEPING great folks like Rice Farmer continued to cull the world press to document the accelerating global collapse and send out stories on a daily basis. Good grief can that man read a map! When meshed with the research from both me and Jenna, the last three days have been an absolute horror show.

As examples:

The EU has effectively nationalized Britain's gas production to cope with the shutdown of Russian gas to Eastern Europe. Over the last two or three years I have received first-hand confirmation from North Sea oil and gas workers that – as a result of the North Sea's serious
decline and depletion – many nearly-empty oil fields are being converted to suck out whatever methane remains in now-depleted oil reservoirs. This has allowed geologists and owners to extend field life (profitability) for maybe a few more years. Now however, for the first time, British natural gas is flowing out to help Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia and many other east European countries which are shattering like ice crystals in the cold. British heating rates are soaring and there may be thousands more "excess deaths" there by freezing this winter. Already, a debate is underway urging UK withdrawal from the EU. It remains to be seen whether the heat from public opinion will warm policy making. Britain is a major candidate for imminent riots.

This current reversal is directly opposite to the map I drew at FTW between 2003 and 2006 which said that Britain would surrender its energy sovereignty to Europe. It did in 2006. But the combination of the sudden (if short-lived) surge in British gas production with the crisis in Eastern Europe has turned a few things on their heads. What is happening in Eastern Europe and the many other places around the world where riots are breaking out will give us clues as to what to expect here. I am afraid that we will be seeing civil unrest in the U.S. very soon and this is the gloom the media is cavalierly trying to "spare" us from so that Americans may have their inaugural moment.

As for Britain and the EU, the Russian gas shut-off will end, hopefully by the end of this next week. A human can freeze to death in a matter of minutes. At present I see no substantial progress. The EU is almost blatantly capitulating by throwing Ukraine back to Moscow. Here! We don't want it! The shut off will pass. Britain's momentary ability to act as a swing producer for Europe cannot last. Public opinion in Britain will likely surge towards secession. But Her
Majesty's government knows clearly that this is suicide. Britain will ultimately remain at the end of the Russian natural gas pipeline. But in what condition is anyone's guess. Britain sits along another fault line – the one separating Europe from North America. As Mexico will decide whether it is a Latin American nation or a North American nation, Britain will be compelled to choose whether it is a European nation or a part of the United States, Canada and its far-flung
Commonwealth. As I write, the Russian gas shut off continues and the crisis in Europe nears catastrophic proportions. Please, any regular readers who live in or near the region, send us your reporting, local stories you and find, and your analysis. Artificial conditions in Europe have given us a glimpse of our near future. In Sofia, Budapest and elsewhere people and factories have, as a matter of survival, turned to burning coal and wood to stay alive. This is not as simple as just
a return to the Middle Ages because there are hundreds of times more people, concentrated in smaller areas. Already major cities in Eastern Europe are choking on air and water pollution from these "alternative fuels".

CIVIL UNREST IN THE UNITED STATES

This is little more than hunch at the moment. The three likeliest states to have civil unrest first are Michigan, California and Ohio. These are the states hardest hit by job cuts. Ohio is of most concern to me. California is just huge and fragmented. The "fires" here would be rapidly "extinguished" by a state that has well-developed and longstanding historical plans for civil unrest going back to the 1960s. There are really probably five states in California and the fire is unlikely to spread from one "region" to another because each region has a different economic base and a different culture. Michigan is geographically off to the side of the board and already something of a "wasteland". There are no densely-packed masses of dry kindling nearby.

But Ohio is entirely different. Already devastated by auto layoffs and other massive corporate failures, Ohio's industrial areas border and are in close proximity to Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Lots of kindling in those states. At the same time as Ohio is devastated by DHL, auto and other layoffs, much of the nation's high-tech wind turbine industry in Ohio is also shutting down at the same time… just when we need it. The snake eats its own tail
for nutrition. It is the way money works… for now.

Civil unrest in Ohio could easily infect across state lines here, and cross another fault line that runs east and west, separating north from south; the Mason Dixon. Other earthquakes might be triggered. Eastward from Ohio are Pennsylvania and New Jersey. I wonder how much inter-agency advance planning DHS and FEMA have gone through so that they might operate fluidly across many borders, radio frequencies and jurisdictions. Those contingencies were planned for in the Patriot Act which congress didn't or couldn't read before voting on it. I described all of this in detail in my essay, "The 'F' Word" in 2001: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/nov202001.html.

There isn't even ten per cent of the military manpower required to impose national martial law in the Continental U.S. (CONUS). But my guess is that there will be an expansion of troop deployment in the region around Ohio soon. We should all be watching where troops are stationed as they (and if) they start coming home.

We all will have a clear understanding of who Barack Obama is and what he represents in short order. He, his administration, and whatever his base is are going to have to show their cards soon. Very soon. What we know is that many of the so-called energy and economic "solutions" espoused by Barack Obama during the campaign and since the election will fail abysmally, at or near the gate. What we pray for are more frequent and stronger signals that ears are open to any who might have some real answers… namely the Peak Oil/Sustainability movement.

In the meantime… In looking at how civil unrest will unfold in the United States it has become pretty apparent that martial law, as we understand it will not be marked by either large numbers of troops/police in the streets or the oh-so-beloved concentration camp myths of the Far Right. The reason I have made this statement consistently for at least nine years is the same in both cases: lack of resources. There are not enough troops and there is also not enough money, food and manpower to put millions of Americans in expensive concentration camps… AND feed them.

The current economic paradigm's approach will be to leave as many displaced Americans as a self-mobile migrant work force that will feed, clothe and house itself on its own. That is much less expensive! Plus, when massive labor is needed it will take the labor pool to the work like a man dying of thirst will run for fresh water. The basic expense here is just to police and contain the mess, sort of put a fence around it.

I am one of the few fools to have read all of both the Patriot Act and the Homeland Security Act, I mean every word. I dissected both at FTW.

All these landmark pieces of legislation are really preparing for is two things. First, the absolute protection of critical infrastructure (e.g. water, power, telecommunications, Internet, hospitals, police and fire stations, airports, military bases, etc.). This is where the military will be used. Second, the maximized control of civilian populations through technology which can deprive them of access to both cash and credit (i.e. food and mobility). That coupled with nearly ubiquitous electronic surveillance and some very effective, non-lethal, area-denial weapons. Already I can see that millions of Americans are locking themselves into their own "die-off" prisons and the realization will not hit them for several years. I would not want to be locked in that virtual prison knowing my fate there.

I think it is much less likely that TPTB are interested in us… or even me. I think they more fear a Spartacus now – or many of them – emerging from those who are about to die. Those of us here who followed the map and changed our lives have removed ourselves from that demographic. We will be needed, and soon. We must be ready.

So MY FIRST RECOMMENDATION is this:

Unless you live in a place surrounded by concrete canyons, and if you have family or a close network, a real neighborhood, go out and buy 5 watt FM walkie-talkies with rechargeable batteries. It's been a few years since I've done research but these radios, which can reach up to
two-and-a-half miles, are important for two reasons. First, they do not require any kind of licensing. Neither do they require the use of a satellite or a microwave relay tower. They can't easily be jammed or shut off. They are direct point-to-point and they will work when everything else fails.

A few on this blog were talking about Ham and shortwave. Both are going to be important but (repeating myself) we must survive the transition stage first. In all thinking now, start locally and work outward. If you do not command the ground under your feet you will never command the ground beyond it.

In an emergency you and your family might be forced to move in a mass exodus with large crowds. How will you know where your family is? How will you keep them together? How will you find one who is lost? How can you use your family to do things that others can't? Remember that if a bear attacks your campsite you do not have to be faster than the bear. You only have to be faster than the slowest camper. (Wink to Barry Silverthorne.) Quick, effective, close-in intelligence and reconnaissance will allow you to keep your heads while others are losing theirs.

Now I know that the Army Signal Corps and Army Security Agency have equipment capable of jamming all these FM frequencies in any battlefield condition. If you have this kind of communications at your disposal, however, you'll probably be far away by the time anything like that happens.

From now on start all of your immediate thinking from the local outward. Those of us who have tried so hard to save the world must also seriously think about saving ourselves from it as well.


MCR
*************************************************************************************

Jenna Orkin adds:


And it's another exciting Sunday evening at the OK or rather, the O-Shit blog.

I hope Barry's metaphor of the bear attacking the campers is apt. If it's not a bear but a tsunami that's coming, we're all screwed.

Along with the benign echo of 9/11 with the happy ending in the Hudson, the other story looping endlessly is of the First Couple-(elect), that paragon of beauty, intelligence and good will finally, the day after MLK day, overcoming. Photo-ops abound. The 'circuses' half of the Roman formula for keeping the people happy thrives. Soon enough we'll be clamoring for the 'bread' half and that'll be harder to come by.

When, oh when will someone get on prime time news with the truth? When are we getting our "blood, sweat and tears" speech? Churchill didn't give his until the Battle of France was underway; even then the people had to be confronted with brutal realities before they were willing to entertain his offer.

Not long ago this country, indeed this world, seemed more enlightened than any in history. So accepting were we of differences, so flexible, so open to new discoveries in the social as well as the hard sciences, so inquisitive and eager for knowledge. Francis Fukuyama seemed almost plausible, if a tad puffed-up, when he described the period as "the end point of mankind's ideological evolution."

Of course each era thinks that about itself. But at least we didn't feel like an exception.

Then it changed.

The barbaric behavior of various groups and governments, even individuals (Lindsay England) has made hatred of those groups and whatever they purportedly represent acceptable again. The longing for simplicity, for good guys vs. bad, induces a black and white picture that allows for distortion as well as catharsis.

More circuses, once again lacking the 'bread' of substance.

Although we're on the eve of a historic inauguration and it seems as though we can never go back, the truth may turn out to be the opposite.

What if - and on this blog we believe the 'if' is only a matter of 'when - things get a whole lot worse? How long will it take to blame the guy whose face is associated with the greatest disaster in the history of mankind? And the 'horse' - equality - he rode in on?

The backlash may be worse than any of us have ever known. In a dog-eat-dog world, people will look for reasons to justify killing. The hatred is ready and waiting, speaking of tinder.

Fukuyama's quote begins by describing the era in question, the 1980's, as 'the end of history." He may not have understood how literal that description could turn out to be.


Monetary Union Puts Half of Europe in Depression
An EU debt union is being created, in breach of EU law. Liabilities are being shifted quietly on to German taxpayers. What happens when Germany's hard-working citizens find out?


India Faces More Terror Attacks: US Study
Looks like we need to divert more troops to that region, eh?
North Korea Claims To Have Weaponized Plutonium
Obama To Face Iran Nuclear Crisis In First Year, ex-US Official Warns
The Big Idea For 2009 as Discussed at JP Morgan
Biotechnology

47 comments:

Don Hynes said...

Hi Mike, Jena:

You're doing a great job sounding the alarm, one if by land etc. I support your post on the collapse and the current signs of the time absolutely.

I have no access no Central Intel but I'll just offer these links to the thirty six hour CNN hero fest:

BofA, Wells Employees Were Aboard Crashed Plane
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/15/bofa-wells-employees-were-aboard-crashed-plane/

and this one filed under boy where are those pesky engines

Both Engines Missing From Airliner
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/nyregion/17inquire.html?hp

and to another crash a few years ago when a billion or so was on the line:

A Scary Crash, a Thwarted Deal and Then Plan B
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/01/business/01dealmakers.html?_r=1&dbk

and to another crash a year or so ago when someone had the cayungs to threaten the honey pot:

Eliot Spitzer - Predatory Lenders' Partner in Crime
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/13/AR2008021302783.html

It is all about resource and energy but the boy kings (and queens) in the skyboxes - they do love their money.

And maybe I'm getting old and watched too many bad B movies out of Intel gollywood but I suspect a connection between the horror in Gaza, Bernie Madoff and when we quit talking about all the money in that's lost will somebody start asking about where the money out is. Someone did re: Enron and Kenny boy suddenly had a heart event.

A said...

I'm from the UK. Don't know where to start.

The UK population is totally clueless on what's going on, even the UK blogs I read haven't got a clue.

The standard story is nasty Russians trying to get their bills paid and the EU stealing our gas, followed by some more EU bashing.

The UK doesnt feel like a riot soon, but the UK is going down the toilet fast so anything could happen.

The UK is about to have another (large) wave of inflation that hasn't been reported on too much. The exchange rates have tanked and when companies start replenishing stock after Christmas, it going to get unpleasantly expensive here.

IMHO the UK/EU relation has never existed. If I had time to do the research it would be fascinating, but ever since I started reading FTW years ago I started to see patterns....

UK policies and legislation have appeared to mirror US, not EU policies for several years now. Heck it's even legal for the US (FBI) to kidnap UK citizens in the UK!

Brits love the US (not baby Bush though), so when Stirling finally crashes, given the choice between the EU and the US, I expect the UK to join the US Dollar/Amro.

The other big untold story is what exactly is the UK population these days? A topic worth further research.

The story so far... For the last 10(ish) years there has been an insane population growth in the UK as the immigration flood gates have been left wide open. The only entrance criteria appears to be if you can get here, you can have a UK passport (unless your from India or Pakistan - WTF). That's helped to make the UK housing boom much bigger.

Now everyone is leaving as jobs are getting harder to find, Stirling isn't worth much and inflation is running at >10%. Now on the plus side that should help our un-employement figures. But heaven help the housing market. The housing market is down 20% and no end in sight.

We are doing another bale out of the banks this weekend, this time for "toxic" loans. The toxic loans they are talking about are mostly home mortgages. Reading between the lines this is to prevent a massive wave of foreclosures. Now THAT would create a riot. I've never seen a middle class riot before...

The UK has implemented its total surveillance infrastructure. Its been on going for 10 years now. For example I cant drive for long now before my number plate is automatically scanned (to make sure i'm not speeding of course). All email and mobile phone/text headers are to be recorded and logged long term from March'09. The national DNA database is growing larger day, by day. If the police interview you for a crime, your DNA is added to the DNA database permanently, regardless on whether you are guilty or innocent.

v said...

Great piece Mike!!

Here some more info about civil unrest:

Eastern Europe braced for a violent 'spring of discontent'
Riots and street battles are set to spread through Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states as inflation, unemployment and racism fuel tension


Thanks everyone for the info on Australia....I'll let you know in March what my decision will be.

V(incent)

FA said...

Each time I visit FTW, my CPU runs at 100% and the fan keeps running high.

I tried a clean new PC, it does the same.

Is it only me?

Stig said...

Thank you Mike and Jenna. I look for updates on this blog more than i check my email account.

Sebastian Ronin said...

The dual implosions of industrial civilization and the American Empire are in full swing, evident to all who know where and how to find the information to substantiate the collapse, i.e. Mike, Jenna, lurkers and commentators to this blog, SOME of the Peak Oil community, etc. I highlight “some” as even in the Peak Oil community there seems to be a substantial number of “cornucopians” odd as that might seem, i.e. even as a civilization crumbles somehow America will pull through as a nation! This is either denial on a colossal lemming scale or, in the words of James Howard Kunstler, the movement is chained to “the banality of American exceptionalism.”

The industrial nation state is an institution of industrial civilization. A cursory glance at the Laws of Thermodynamics will reveal that the large industrial nation state will disintegrate because it MUST disintegrate. The picture that Mike has painted in this post is the tip of the iceberg. He has laid out a great map, but the map is not the territory. Tactics trump strategy because it is in the mud of the trenches where victory or defeat is determined, not at the lofty view from the hill.

As part of the credo to “Prepare, prepare, prepare” I strongly urge Peak Oilers to prepare by contacting the secessionist organization in your bioregion. A list of all NAmerican secessionist organizations can be found here:

http://middleburyinstitute.org/currentamericansecessionistgroups.html

The time approaches to do what we must do, not what we would like to do. It is the line in the sand. It is the jumping off place. It's over; it's finished. Deal with it. Let it go.

Sebastian Ronin said...

Addendum to first comment: For those who wish, the position paper, "Post-Peak Oil and NAmerican Regional Secession" can be found here, http://novacadia.wordpress.com/2008/11/17/post-peak-oil-and-namerican-regional-secession/

Same paper in Word format (with charts) can be found here, www.novacadia.org

Fool Britannia said...

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2146286.ece

Not the most reliable British periodical but I thought the symbolism was interesting for the biggest selling daily newspaper in the country

tim said...

Even if you don't like RanD's spiritual view, he did point out something breathtaking and nobody says a thing. Do any of you have the slightest idea of what can (probably will) happen in the next 7 years as we pass through the galactic plane with all its increased gravity and sun-spots? Do you know what a pole-shift is and how devastating it can be? This can also trigger super volcanoes that will make man-made pollution look like nothing. The Amish can barely survive on their farms that have been sustained for over 200 years on this continent without nitrogen fertilizer, electricity, or internal combustion engines. The Christian bible is codified astrology. The 7-year "tribulation" at the "end of time" is the time we pass through the galactic center from 2008-2015.

Richard said...

FMRS radios have very short ranges. MURS band (151 to 154 Mhz) radios are a better option because they have much greater ranges (especially when one has a high quality antenna), you can use better antennas, no FCC license is required, and this band is not heavily used. In addition, you can purchase Dakota Alert drive way and IR sensors and use upto 4 of these perimeter sensors per MURS frequency you use.

saoirse said...

I'll certainly try to share more of what's happening in France. In general it's worrying because Sarkozy seems to be setting up a framework similar to Bush- in terms of slowly pulling all the power inwards to himself. My hope is that people will oppose this...However, everything's so quiet with the financial crisis hitting hard.

Another comment for people preparing...don't forget medicine. I have a lot of books on preparing natural medicine, and I have purchased quite a few more. Some essential recommendations:
1.The Herbal Medicine-makers Handbook (by James Green)
2. Herbal Medicine- From the heart of the Earth (by Sharol Tilgner)
3. A modern Herbal (by M. Grieve)
These are very different books- and all work very well together. Anyone else with some good recommendations~ ? would be greatly welcomed.
Also some good sites to download:
download two free manuals (or you can also buy the book):
1.Where there is no Doctor
2.Where There is no Dentist

1.http://www.hesperian.org/mm5/merchant.mvc?Store_Code=HB&Screen=PROD&Product_Code=B010R

2.http://www.hesperian.org/mm5/merchant.mvc?Store_Code=HB&Screen=PROD&Product_Code=B030

"Perhaps the most widely-used health care manual for health workers, clinicians, and others involved in primary health care delivery and health promotion programs around the world. With millions of copies in print in more than 75 languages, the manual provides practical, easily understood information on how to diagnose, treat, and prevent common diseases. Special attention is focused on nutrition, infection and disease prevention, and diagnostic techniques as primary ways to prevent and treat health problems. "

Hope that helps!

Palooka's Revenge said...

.... the US Air crash landing wasn't a 9-11 was it?

not to question the implication of your question mike but MSM cycling the same vid clips over and over and over ad nauseum is SOP.

i share your rage. can you imagine, were the airwaves actually free and one could get it on line and carried by the providers, just how fast a forward looking news channel would catch on? remember when the mouth launched CNN? this would make that look like 2 tin cans and a string!!

kiki said...

this may be of interest (Ohio co-op) - take a look at the level of authority exerted:

http://www.ftcldf.org/news/news-22dec2008.htm

koolkarma817 said...

What do you say of a species that plans it's own death? We think we can afflict this kinda horror on other people and it won't come back to bite us? How do you contain this? The hubris among our leaders. Do they think a gated community is going to protect them?

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2146286.ece

http://www.madison.com/wsj/topstories/429890

kiki said...

tim, I've been following information relating to the alignment for several years. The biggest problem is finding reliable and scientific information and not just conjecture or info based on 'prophetic' talk. Lately, I have seen a few blurbs that have some scientific substance but not much. That alone, makes me wonder. And if you want something else that may be related to wonder about, have you thought about the third Lady of Fatima proph that the Pope declined to publish ? Probably the reason why this subject isn't engaged here is because it isn't Peak Oil related and with little fact (that i can find) what is there to do but wonder ........and prepare, of course, which we are each doing the best we can anyway albeit for a different reason :-)

Dana said...

Mike's favorite analogy

A little humor for dark hours.

cj said...

24 hours to go and Mike is right on target with the predicitions. Here we are - all ready to go:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090119/pl_afp/uspoliticstransitiongates


Is it just me? I have to sign in repeatedly to get onto this blog. Anyone else having this trouble?

koolkarma817 said...

HOW does Obama 'FIX' this mess?

For weeks I have been trying to figure out HOW it is possible to fix this mess. Yes, putting Americans back to work is a good thing. Yes, re-building our infrastructure is a good thing....BUT 70% of the US GDP is consumer consumption, BUYING stuff they don't need and can no longer afford.!

US has a national debt and deficit that off the charts. The country is getting older. You simply don't need nor want all the stuff you bought when you where younger. Millions work out of their homes, companies accept casual clothing as appropriate work attire, few see clothing as a status symbol of days gone by. Many are not embracing the electronic gadgets evident in the liquidation of Circuit City. I have one analog 27” TV, no cell phone and a perfect microwave that cost me $10 at a yard sale! What do I need?

Pensions, 401K's and stock portfolios are 40% less of what they were 6 months ago. Americans are worried about health care, cost of food and energy. How does this all create jobs? Baby Boomers are the sandwich generation. They have elderly parents that they are trying to help. They have kids that are returning home after college due to the lack of jobs, returning home after a divorce or returning home because they lost their job and then their home.

I see no way for the housing industry to return. We have so overbuilt. We have million of homes from the seniors that will die off in the next 10 years. How do you afford a home that is $300K when you make $40K? I don't support the return to yesteryear of autos that will continue to pollute the environment. I want every major city to invest in mass transportation.

How do we build an economy that requires less consumer consumption? Is the only answer more wars and increase in the MIC?

Cath said...

Please elaborate on your statement(s): "Already I can see that millions of Americans are locking themselves into their own "die-off" prisons and the realization will not hit them for several years. I would not want to be locked in that virtual prison knowing my fate there."

What error are you trying to identify?

FTW admin said...

cath

i believe he's talking about unsustainable cities

FTW admin said...

cath

i believe he's talking about unsustainable cities

tim said...

Kiki,
What do you think about the Horizon Project that RanD linked us to through "bracingfortomorrow.com"? That seems to be very scientific in its approach. I haven't researched the Horizon Project that well, but I know what sunspots can do. I can just imagine what increased gravitational pull will do.

ecosutra said...

Gated Communities? Try Sal Paulo Brazil, where the rich only fly on top of one building after another,never touching the city floor.

Did you know there are 2 birds in Australia that compost.

The Malee Fowl And the Bush Turkey.
they actually steal the compost from permacultures. They incubate their eggs for 30 days and let the compost pile hatch their eggs. Compost is meant to be, and the GMO's hate it. Why do we have a multi national corporation entity trying to eliminate compost? I mean, dont we have enough problems to deal with?

Compost is 2/3rds carbon to 1/3rds nitrogen. If you see white stuff, its not fungi, its bacteria. And your compost pile is shrinking, its too hot and you have to much nitrogen. If its not hot enough and you are not seeing the decomposition, you need to add nitrogen. IF you can keep your compost at 65 degrees then you are doing well, over 70 and you need to add more carbon. Check and peel the pile like an orange, every 2 days, moving the inner to the outer layers, for 18 days and its finished. You have new soil. Simple huh?
and add an activator, like blood.

If you have an animal put it in the middle no maggots or pathogens can survive if you keep it in the middle deep inside the compost pile.
You only have to deal with a nasty carcass for the first 4 peelings. So to do it as best as possible, take a pitch fork dig into the compost and feel for the animal, and quickly pull it out with one big breath, hold it in, and move the carcass over into the new pile to start over and quickly cover.

As I get inspired to explain what I am editing from Geoff Lawton's design course. I want to share it with FTW. I have no one else like this group who is down the rabbit hole with me. I want to share with you all.

guitarbuddy said...

Hello all,

I was the one who asked MCR a few days ago what he thought the real reason was for the border wall, which AFAIK is not being discussed much if at all in the mainstream OR alternative media. His response was to keep out the Mexicans who will try to get in if there's a "sudden collapse" in Mexico as suggested by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in their latest press release. As I've been following PO issues for a few years this wasn't a big stretch, but I thought there has to be more to it than that, so I'm going to lay out my points and see if anyone has anything to say.

Since that article was published in the El Paso Times AOL news also ran an article about how horrible things are in Mexico and how it might be an even bigger policy issue for Obama than Iraq. Now, Obama's pick for Trade Representative is former Dallas mayor Ron Kirk, who is known to be in support of the so-called NAFTA superhighway. The supposed reasons for this highway are to have a larger mid America transit line for goods coming from China, which, BTW, bypass the union dock workers in NY and CA and come in at a cheaper rate at Mexican ports and using Mexican truck drivers.

But now that trade with China is severely cut due to the "recession" we're in, what other reasons could there be? Simple: easier and faster access of the US military to Mexico's resources, including the drug trade. All this violence going on there could be fomented for just such an occasion as the US needing to "stabilize" the country and "protect" the oil infrastructure. In the process, with the border wall and the superhighways in place, the "good guys" will be able to import all the drugs they need into the US, with the military helping to "guard our borders" and prevent the "bad guys" from getting in, the ones who won't be sanctioned to use the big roads.

This would be the perfect excuse to launch a martial law scenario in the border areas of the US, giving us an "enemy" (bad Mexicans), a reason for launching the draft (Kirk is also in favor of a U.S. Public Service Academy), and an all round excuse to - once again - exploit an already exploited, fucked up country for the private gain of the elite. With martial law in place here, why not elsewhere? We'll need that Canadian oil soon enough.

Jeff said...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090119/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/cb_guantanamo_sept11_trial
WE have the confessions,the day before Bush leaves office.

Nekobus said...

Regarding things like the Horizon Project... Do an internet search on the names of the authors and "researchers" involved. See if the results of your search indicate that these people are genuine scientists and if their CV claims are valid, if they've published in reputable scientific journals, etc. If it turns out that they're real scientists then their thesis may be worthy of consideration. Until you know something about the people behind it, you don't know if it's science or merely entertainment masquerading as knowledge.

sunrnr said...

It seems the security arrangements being made for tomorrow commands a force larger than what's in Afghanistan.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28733652/

It seems very reminiscent of the 9/11 scenario. As Mike said, the one that was in charge on 9/11 will still be in charge at the command center mentioned in the article tomorrow.

What if, God forbid, something did happen tomorrow? Seems a good opportunity for a complete coup d'etat.

Am I getting that paranoid? Maybe it's finally time to bunker up, hide and watch. I may work on my Mad Max vehicle and armament a bit.

I'm outta here. Thanks and good luck to you all in whatever the future brings.

namaste

Nekobus said...

Excellent information about edible wild plants: http://www.ofthefield.com/html/about_us.html
It's amazing to learn about the variety and quantity of wild food growing around us. Could come in very handy in an emergency/collapse situation.

Bonnie said...

For those interested
2012 is the year of solar maximus, when sunspots will be at peak.

Here is a good article of what could happen

http://www.livescience.com/space/090107-space-weather-storms.html

b

MCR said...

When I wrote about people locking themselves into their own prison I was referring to debt. That is and will be the death sentence. Every day I read about young men and women still spending merrily and living off credit cards.

There will be no declaration of bankruptcy and a fresh start in this new era. There will be only a death sentence of a lifetime in cyber shackles, and, for the ucky, fast starvation.

How would it feel to know that you had to walk around, unable to buy or get credit, hungry, unable to get a job because your credit is bad?

There will be no coming back from those places and the young idiots who go deeper into debt are deselecting themselves.

At this moment new debt should be avoided as strenuously as having unprotected sex with a person you knew had AIDS.

To put it simply, as it stands now, those who live will be the ones with money, a place to live and a means of sustenance.

At this point I would recommend that anyone going to school not take any more student loans. In a feudal world only the children of the nobility will be educated.

MCR

Winter said...

If anyone is interested in Canada, and I'm not sure you are, we've got a host of political issues going on right now with parliament suspended since our PM is in fear of losing his job.

He's been as secretive as Bush, and just as criminal. I have no idea how he'll fall in with Obama, but we have an American plant, Ignatieff, set to take over if Harper doesn't work out.

Here are the scariest links of the past year with Harper-Bush in Power:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=57228

A story about new and unprecidented cross-border military co-operation.

&

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/12/drone-to-keep-w.html

Predators are now patrolling the US/Canada border as well.

It just makes you wonder if the US plans to keep their people in as well as ensuring that others don't enter.

Having family in the southern US, I get a lot of stories of anger about the Mexicans that enter the country and 'steal jobs' and are illegal. Here in Canada we get hints of stories about people from the US who want to 'flee to Canada' when things get bad.

Both stories seem to be either set up or encouraged in order to keep people where they are. No American wants to leave and go to Mexico--they just want to keep the Mexicans out. No Canadian want the Americans to begin streaming across the border. (I've heard a lot of, "Just let them try and we'll show them what more guns per capita means.")

It seems that all sides are preparing for unrest. (Though Canadians aren't quite as 'awake' as the USians are.) I expect that Canada will hold out longer than Mexico or the US, solely due to our status as oil suppliers. The tar sands are a dreadful environmental mistake but in the light of peak oil there wasn't much our government could do and still maintain its 'favoured' status.

One last thing. I don't think they mean to really control us with the military. It's enough for us to fear of all these battle-hardened combat veterans. So long as they can keep us fearful, scattered and suffering the hardships of joblessness and lack of food, we won't be able to easily band together in large enough groups to threaten the status quo. Riots are a good thing--for them. They are violent, scary and deadly. They will serve to keep the people from rising up as groups and going after government. We'll be too busy focusing on the riots themselves. For now.

Paul Davis said...

As 'A' mentioned earlier there's little sign of civil unrest here in the UK at the moment.

There is simmering anger amongst the working and middle classes on many blogs and comments on the BBC and national newspaper websites but it would take something quintessentially un-British for this anger to spill onto the streets.

The liberty fighting Englishman of history has long been subdued in a similar way to Orwell's proles being fed porn and Victory gin. A modern day equivalent would be Lager and Premiership football, as long as that's available your UK Joe Plumber equivalent (White Van Man) will remain obedient.

However my take is the authorities know the power lies in the White Van Man, hence why politicians try to win the support of The Sun newspaper (the working class tabloid owned by R.Murdoch) because it where WVM gets his daily digest of the how the world works.

Lose control of WVM and then we'll see trouble on the streets. Once WVM feels he has been betrayed it will be like a rogue dog let off the leash.

That's probably why the UK has such an advanced surveillance state already in place. A national ANPR (Automatic Number Plate Recognition) system that will track you on major and minor roads, petrol (gas) stations and even Tesco's (our Walmart).

Yes there's enough apparatus in place to quell most disorder here. If anything comes it will be in riot season which is generally on any hot summers day.

gildone84 said...

Native Ohioan here...MCR is correct on the economic situation in Ohio. It's deteriorating by the month.

Regarding civil unrest, while anything is possible, it remains to be seen.

Except for Columbus (and only to an extent), Ohio's urban centers are very much hollowed out. Some inner city areas look like they've been through a war. Others are eerily becoming semi-rural.

And, sprawl has occurred here at a rapid pace over the last 20 years (one of the worst states for farmland loss).

This all means the population is spread out. So, except for an increase in general crime, civil unrest like that occurring in Greece wouldn't be easy to achieve because most people would have to get in their cars (at least while there are no gasoline shortages) in order to go somewhere to protest/riot in any significant number.

Sprawling, disconnected cul-de-sac neighborhoods with little sense of community rule the landscape here.

Furthermore, Ohio isn't the same place it was 37 years ago when students got shot at Kent State.

So, again, anything is possible, and I don't claim to be right, but except for an increase in general crime, I don't know if there will be much Greece-like civil unrest, at least not in the short run.

zeusij said...

I currently do not live in a good area to be self efficient. No area for a garden and a place where the starving would roam for anything they could find. I have been aware of this comming crisis for a few years now and have been preparing. I have food storage, water storage, and weapons/ammunition. My main concern now is my location. I have been saving gold bullion and have planned to ride the wave of the crash untill the right moment to buy a house and some land to grow my own food. However, as Mike said,

"If you do not command the ground under your feet you will never command the ground beyond it."

I understand the need to occupy a good shelter going into this crisis. I just question how long to try and ride the wave to buy the property. I feel if I time it right, I could buy it straight out and not worry about losing it due to a unpayable loan. Any feedback or thoughts on my plan would be appriciated.

Kat said...

Okay, I have had enough. This shit is way too depressing. I would rather die in complete ignorance and have no warning. Jesus fucking christ! Is there no hope at all?? You need to rethink what you are doing here. I have more faith in people than you do I guess. FUCK!

ecosutra said...

Canada? With China building a new coal fire plant every week, acid rain is whats hitting the forests now in Canada. Germany had their green movement when their forests started dying from acid rain. How will Canada stop China? Do they even know they have too?

Quinnz said...

I keep coming back to the blog to see if there is another post - better than any other site I know of.

There are so many factors that point not only to crisis but to crash. There seems to be such a disconnect between Obama's historic inaugaration, ushering in all the Hope and Change! Although I know if he wasn't OK'd by TPTB he would'nt be there. How would he maintain all his upbeat positive articulate inspirational narratives describing the dollars demise??

Someone on this blog was asked by friends, "Would you be dissapointed if there wasn't a crash?" At first I wouls say - of course not (and truthfully). There is also some truth to the fact that I think life should be simpler and that the native americans were more civilized than we are - certainly more in touch with nature/reality - respect for the earth. For a long time I have felt life has become to shallow, commercialized, consumeristic bullshit and have felt there was a dumbing down of the masses to boot. I started reading between the lines years ago and smelled a rat. Y2K has been refrenced on this blogg (something I did not worry about)- a major difference is that Y2K was all over the MSM and Peak oil/Corparate-gov. corruption has had to be dug hard for. Being confused at the beginning - the major criteria for truth in opposing information was profit motive. That was major. A problem for me is even my wife just feels life is to important to worry about all the financial dips - just get on with your day to day life - it is counter productive to do otherwise and things ALWAYS turn around. I don't think I could live with myself being someone "who knew" but did nothing about preparation.
I have had to trust my gut that despite it being difficult going against the large collective conscience out there pretending that things are ok and that TPTB have everything under control and have the power to protect this free market system that only needs a couple more trillion or so to keep the house of cards standing a bit longer - to prudently prepare. Well - even if they did pull this off economically - the earth can't handle our crapping all over it any more. Time to simplify.

Just like painting a house - Its ALL in the PREPARATION....

ZetaSagittarii said...

Hello Mike & Jena,

Back in the beginning of 2005 (I guess) I've been introduced to the concept of Peak Oil by a downloaded version of your monumental lecture "Denial Stops Here", and thus I've been following your activity Mike, for a good 3 years now. Have bought and read "Crossing the Rubicon" twice and this blog is on my daily reading list. Thank you and your readers for all the socio-economico-political insights and point of views you're sharing with us.

No need to remind anyone that there wasn't such a thing as "peak oil" in the popular media back then, so no wonder I had my fair share of strange looks and disbelief thrown at me. Sadly, the fact that the expression is getting now widespread aknowledgment ("Last summer’s $4-a-gallon gasoline was no anomaly, it was a brief glimpse of our future [...]; We must address the inevitability of peak oil [...]" - Irv Miller, U.S. group vice president of environmental and public affairs for the Toyota City, Japan-based company)* doesn't make me feel any better. Things are still going to get worse, much worse.

Unfortunately, I feel like I'm living trapped in a bad dream: I'm a 32 y.o. European expat living in urban Japan (got married and started it all from zero here four years ago), with little other professional perspective than succeeding in building my own commercial enterprise. Soon, when sh*t will hit the fan, I'll find myself in fully knowing what's happening and not being able to do much about it.

Due mainly to language proficiency issues, my interaction skills are medium at best and my current income tends to be the same. The realization of what's to come has also drastically altered my carreer choices: who needs a foreign languages teacher when the world is crumbling beneath their feet? Consequently I feel I'm being in an extremely exposed position and encountering difficulties in relaying the message through this thick cloud of "nothing to see here, move along" de facto attitude to the only people I could think of able to make a difference: my parents-in-law.

However, for what it may worth, I tried and managed to clear all debts, I avoided unnecessary expenses (e.g. a familly car), and mentally prepared my wife for a bumpy ride in the near future, including probable loss of her carreer (real estate, no less!) and relocation to and with her family, in a half-rural environment.

As for practical preparations: stocking food would be viable if we owned the flat we've been living in and maybe if it was also a little bigger; gun possesion is prohibited here (but I'm still reasonably good with a katana :). All in all, it's obviously clear that, at this moment at least, we're not self-sustainable in the way the times will soon require. Tough luck, eh?

Well, I guess there's not much else to do for me than to try and ride the wave of chaos that will certainly ensure and, if succeeding in doing it, to get a foothold in the next epoch's state of affairs: the return to feudalism.

* Source: Bloomberg

Jeff said...

We have confessions in the last day of the Bush Administration,the last trial at Git-mo.How convenient
No pictures of our alleged mastermind of 9-11,just a drawing and on picture of the back of a prisoner being hauled away.
looks like case closed,with Vreeland sentenced to like 333 yrs,and top dog Khalid Sheikh Mohammed giving confessions,The oil coup' can sleep well at night I guess.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28735610/

RayLeeUS said...

Kiki, wow - reminds me of the commercial with Mel Gibson where the SWAT team comes to grab him for possessing Vitamin C.

CJ (and others) - It's fine that Gates is outside of Washington, he would not really become President except upon the incapacity of the Prez, VP, speaker of the House, President pro tempore of the Senate, Secretary of State and the Secretary of the Treasury. I imagine the article is referring to his designation for temporary authority in the event of (God forbid) an attack to issue executive commands should there be a disruption preventing the Prez or Prez-designate from doing so . . . but only until the proper ranking individual could be brought to a secure position. I may be wrong, but it seems akin to the kind of failsafe protocols that have been in place for many years, and heightened since 9/11.

That's not to say that I'm not still holding my breath too.

On the galactic plane stuff - Did I miss something here? Did we sail off the edge of the galaxy? Dining at the Restaurant at the End of the Universe? (Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy reference) Not every cool idea with accompanying explanatory book advertised in the Whole Earth Catalog is actually scientifically sound. We could roll out Edgar Cayce and Nostradamus predictions as well, and even pontificate about a Biblical basis for paganism. We can even churn out endless rambling statements which make use of all kinds of vaguely understood new age jargon and communicating little other than a sense that you the reader must not be clued into the cosmic truth.

I'll worry about the galactic plane when it fails to successfully land in the Hudson and ends up in my back yard instead - or there is at least a consensus of sound scientific analysis. Meanwhile, there's some more practical matters to take care of. One of which is learning to live in truth, see the divine in everyone around me, friend or foe - while being wise as a seprent and gentle as a dove. We may see the day soon that we have to do things we never imagined ourselves doing before - making decisions we couldn't imagine having to make before. Stockpiling food and water will not help us get past ego and self-concern -- or paralyzing fear. The main purpose of taking care of ourselves may be so we can take care of and be a value to others. So how much are we willing to sacrifice? How prepared are we to no longer have many choices of sacrifice (having been stripped down from without)?

When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose
You're invisible now, you got no secrets to conceal. (How does it feel?)

That's us. Like rolling stones.

Keep some good music nearby, you'll need it for your nerves, you'll hear and understand lyrics you never really deeply, fully understood before. Save some battery power for it.

Let Freedom Ring. What momentous days - MLK Day, Obama inauguration. Best wishes to all. Millions of thanks to MCR and Jena.

Quinnz said...

Hi folks!

From MCR ...... "There will be no declaration of bankruptcy and a fresh start in this new era. There will be only a death sentence of a lifetime in cyber shackles, and, for the ucky, fast starvation.

How would it feel to know that you had to walk around, unable to buy or get credit, hungry, unable to get a job because your credit is bad?"

I have a couple of questions. .........If the value of the dollar crashes - inflation skyrockets - would it be conceivable that it would take less real money to pay off a mortgage or any other debt?

Last October the official inflation rate in Zimbabwe was 231,000,000 - relatively worthless. If it takes 5,000,000 to buy a loaf of bread - can you pay off a mortgage with 3 or 4 slices? I must be missing something here? If not, I plan on buying more flour! Of course all this and the average Zimbabwean lives on the equivilent of less than 2 dollars a day.

Will it be important to have credit to GET a job? Would having credit be a significant mode of exchange for the man on the street - post meltdown?

If so many people lose their houses due to high debt/loss of income, what's going to happen to all those empty houses, (some with woodstoves)? Are the authorities going to board them up and keep people out when people are wondoring around quite cold in the winter?

Wouldn't it be cheaper to let people stay in their houses for free and let them fend for themselves than have to feed them in large containment facilities?

Are we talking about conditions similar to the great depression or the lord of the flies?

I certainly hope that if these curious piques are naive, some may find a little humor in their ignorance to counter the depressive nature of our posts.

One of the dots Mike picked up on early is the fact that the Bankruptcy laws just happened to be overhauled in a timely manner before all this annoying financial crash stuff started getting all our attention. (Although ask your average highschool kid what he thinks about the 700 billion dollar bailout - (he don't). If you read the changes to the bankruptcy code you will realize someone put a lot of thought into it getting ready for a new game in town.

tim said...

nekobus:
I don't need a scientist to explain sun spots, gravitational fields, or electro-magnetic fields. The scientists at the Horizon Project are reputable and published. I just pointed out what RanD shared with us and wondered what you all thought. I believe that peak oil is real but also is a red herring masking supressed alternative energy or the potential catastrophic changes Earth can experience passing through the galactic center. The final truth is that this world is what it is. We can't fix it, we can only tracscend it.

FTW admin said...

to quinnz:

question: Are we talking about conditions similar to the great depression or the lord of the flies?

ans: the latter

FTW admin said...

to quinnz:

question: Are we talking about conditions similar to the great depression or the lord of the flies?

ans: the latter

ecosutra said...

Inauguration

I missed it, but saw the end. Where Obama is standing on the steps waiting for the emperor Bush to leave. He waited until the chopper was out of the DC district. Very corny I have to say. It makes me feel the neo con Phill Gramms of the empire have the nation in a grip. Well I don't know about you all, but it sickens me to see these phony corporate democrats kissing Bushy face.

Either Obama is going to hand out money to these multi nationals with their propaganda of shale oil in Utah, or he is going to create new government funding to bring in the appropriate technologies I have posted on my energy desings page. Let me just say if we get the Manhattan projects for these appropriate technologies, a plug in hybrid could power 40 people in an eco village efficiently. Its going to empower you like never before. The average work year for a permaculture designer is 500 hours a year. Now that is free to me.

Already it does not look good. Stanford this week received 110 million for energy research. It should have gone to Cal Poly tech. Or Berkley.
Why did it go to the neo con University so they can develop hydrogen from nuclear power? I was press at the Emory University Hydrogen Fuel Cell Coalition seminar in 2006. Oakridge national laboratory has been spending 800 million a year trying to get appropriate hydrogen EROI from nuclear power. Hydrogen from nuclear power is the worst EROI, I saw the chart at ASPO. You all like my Robert Kaufman edit from ASPO? I do it all baby!!!. Gonzo reporter radical Russ. Ecosutra style. Hey we got a party on the 24th. Check website www.raizecollective.com for details.
Come and party with me and see the artisan dj's that want to get ready to shift, if you are in LA.

zeusij said...

Saoirse,

Thanks for the herbal book suggestions. I look forward to getting them.

duncan said...

Re A and Paul and the future of the UK - I'm Irish, in Dublin and I wouldn't be at all certain about the UK adopting the dollar (or amero) over the euro in the event of sterling's collapse. In fact, I wouldn't even place much confidence in there being a United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland existing if conditions worsen. And I'm NOT talking about the recent immigration into that state in recent years. I'm talking about centuries old faultlines of cultural and geopolitical difference suddenly being shaken into tumultuous activity again.

Perhaps its down to you falling victim to that old blindspot whereby Britain/the UK are understood to be simple synonyms of England, but guys, c'mon - in the event of serious social unrest, state bankruptcy and economic armageddon, one would have to question whether Scotland - which currently has elected the nationalists into a position of significant power - would continue to remain subservient to what may become, yet again and increasingly, a militantly authoritarian Westminster rule unafraid to put troops on the streets.(..talk about making Finchley as British as west Belfast in the eighties...)
Now, fair enough, Wales is unlikely to withdraw. But the Scots aren't necessarily going to accept that continuing the Union remains in their best interests...never mind the resentment that may explode if the Scots decide that the greatest gift nature ever bestowed on them, the north sea gas and oil reserves, was burned up in service to a British state that didn't do enough to serve the Scottish nation, as a nation. They may decide independence as a member state of the European Union, however hobbled that body may be, is preferable to this disadvantageous 'British' union limping along..

With no resources to continue subsidising it, Northern Ireland might explode yet again into sectarian mayhem. Or, seeing that Westminster has enough on its hands trying to maintain order in England (always the Crown's preeminent power base and thus its primary concern), the unionists of the six counties may decide its better to be 20% of the population in a united Ireland, rather than a miniscule percentage of a disuniting kingdom. Hell, they may even act as a lever to convince Edinburgh and Dublin to align as a northwestern/highland regional power that eventually (perhaps a century or two from now, when things have stabilised enough to allow long-term strategy come to the fore again, rather than fire-fighting collapse), a Hiberno-Scottish entity that makes its own way within both the European and wider Atlantic domains.

See, that's what makes something like this so hard to call. Everything we assume from the surface can be overthrown by what lies buried beneath, waiting for its moment. I mean, consider..a century ago, Ireland was a pacified, troop contributing province of a British empire. A century ago...