Friday, December 05, 2008

NOW HERE'S AN HONEST QUOTE!

From this linked CNN story on today's jobs report.

"The economy is now deteriorating with frightening speed and ferocity- it's truly horrific," said Bernard Baumohl, chief economist at the Economic Outlook Group. "We'll see significant declines going forward."

Now add that to the fact that a spokesman from the Bureau of Labor Statistics testified in the House today that this was the single worst jobs report in history. One member asked, "How long have you guys been keeping records?" The answer: "124 years."

BUT the DOW rose 274 pts. today based upon investors "hoping for a brisk holiday season."... A brisk holiday season??????????????????????

That's about as stupid as asking Peak Oil activists to stop flying to conferences. Yeah right! Let the bad guys who are running us off a cliff use all the best and most powerful means of accomplishing goals available, then relegate us trying to save things to the 19th Century. That was a classic example of stupid Progressive thinking. No, it won't make any difference whether any of us stops flying or not. The math is so far out of line that... we'll, you'll have to read my new book. And if my book does well I will fly as fast as I can to promote it and to get where I need to go. For me, I am making full use of the energy while we have it. I am also enjoying a few energy luxuries while they're still available. There's a well-known peaker who refuses to fly or do any number of commonplace things. He's a good guy but I wonder if he knows how many conferences he screwed up by making everyone wait for him.

The logic of that is about the same as risking the entire species going extinct in order to NOT deal with a dieoff that is scientifically inevitable, very predictable, and massively documented in many other species throughout history. The chaos that will result from this approach is... is... suicidal. And we on this list, and throughout the Peak Oil movement, are not. The idea is to save as many lives as possible. For those of us who have been at this for many years I can say that it's real hard to save people's lives until someone admits that they are in danger.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/05/news/economy/jobs_look_ahead/index.htm?postversion=2008120518

Correction: Biolabs only go up to Level Four. Thanks Mark.

Have a good weekend. "The economy is now deteriorating with frightening speed and ferocity - it's truly horrific." ... Man is that a mouthful!

Go out. Party. Take a long drive. Make love. Make someone smile. Make yourself smile.

[Mary, I think I love you. Please keep posting. You too Victoria. Rice Farmer, my brother, you are just a big solid rock. Businessman, I miss ya.]

MCR
***********************************************************************************

And while we're mouthing off at irksome comments, below is a paraphrase of some correspondence with a person important to me; otherwise I wouldn't bother trying to convince one who so obviously wishes to remain HUA: (That one's hard to get by googling but you can guess. I did, when Mike first used it. It's a cops' term for a distracted driver.)

FTW, the blog and other writers correctly foresaw the Balkanization of Iraq, the disintegration of poorer countries such as Zimbabwe, the "recession," the heightened tension between India and Pakistan and the steep and inexorable decline in oil production reported by the IEA last month, among other symptoms of global disaster too numerous to go into.

What do you think collapse looks like in the beginning? People on Madison Avenue looting Ralph Lauren? The U.S. has a financial situation that even the mainstream media are now comparing to the Great Depression and worse. The Peak Oilists warned of this years ago, remember?

To compare us to apocalyptic cults is superficial, arrogant bait. It derives from a wish to be cool by being a wiseass. Mark Twain said words to the effect of: "When I was fourteen, I thought my father was an idiot. When I was twenty-one, I found it remarkable how much wisdom the old man had acquired in seven years."


If you want to achieve cool, read and find out actual facts instead of being an armchair critic who dismisses with a snarky soundbite. Don't follow the crowd; lead them.

Swiss Bank CEO Commits Suicide

"Shares in Julius Baer have lost some 60 percent in 2008 as markets have worried about outflows at its hedge fund GAM, which accelerated in October."



JO






50 comments:

Rice Farmer said...

Hello Son of a Farmer! From one farmer to another: Well, unlike you I'm a part-time farmer. Right now, that is. Because I have been positioning myself for years to segue into full-time farming when the bottom falls out. You heard me right.

I read your comment on the previous post with passion for the soil and farming running out my ears. I have been here in Japan for decades, and have been watching Japanese agriculture, wondering if it will live or die. The full-time farmers in my neighborhood -- what's left of them -- are just barely hanging on. In fact, "part-time farmer" is a major occupation in this country.

But what prompted me to write was your observation on commodities. Yes, it's bad. But people have to eat. They can cut down a lot, but they can't go cold turkey. Though our oil-powered machinery may rust in the shed, people will be seeking food, above all else. So although the way we produce food will change (too bad there are so few horses around), we're going to be busy.

Farming is most decidedly not going to disappear, but it's going to undergo a wrenching change. As I see it, the key for farmers is managing to make the transition. My group is assuming, just to be on the safe side, the worst-case scenario of no machinery.

If you have any more thoughts on this, please leave a comment.

justDave said...

Chief Economist? Where have I heard that term used before? Wasn't there a book released around the same time as the Rubicon trying to inform the public of the economic scandals plaguing our planet? Can it be possible the winds have shifted and a stronger economy has based our economy based on their forecast of production? Of course not, that's impossible! We have all read the books, blogs, websites and newspapers. Private firms and investors ARE the economy AND the government. They have created the standards for us to live and created the goals we must accomplish.

Based on Ruppert's effort, the public has made their decision, to live as the audience. The few of us here who have joined have made the commitment to stand by an individual who can be compared to the man in Tiananmen Square. From here I am unsure where to direct this comment. On that note I would like to say, Mike, you are the Socrates of modern history. You have been loyal to your word on providing the truth.

justDave said...

Are you kidding me? I spent all that time writing a response and it tells me the blog does not allow anonymous comments!? Really? I have it set to public...

Eugene Warren said...

From "The Creature of Jekyll Island"

http://www.bigeye.com/griffin.htm

"These countries have been purchased through this means and are now owned by this group at the UN and they're firmly in place in the new world order where they're just waiting for you and me to show up. That's the other side of this coin. Not only does this transfer of wealth from America to these countries not raise their standard of living but it does lower ours. That too, believe it or not, is part of the plan. Just waste, get rid of money, get rid of productive power to reduce our standard of living. A strong nation is not a candidate to surrender its sovereignty but a weak nation is. If America can be brought to her knees where she is struggling for survival, if people are hungry, if we have riots in our streets, then Americans could possibly be grateful for any assistance we could get from the UN. Those wonderful blue-helmeted peace-keeping forces could bring order back to our streets or international money, a new world money with purchasing power again might be welcomed by the unthinking, unknowing American public. That is what we're dealing with."

Raymond said...

From another novice to the farming game... we live here near the Holmgrens, the originators of permaculture - big lesson for me is you dont need to do it yourself. Mikes simple advice of "make friends" works. Getting 10-15 families together to coordinate a years planting in each persons back garden, means a highly efficient growing schedule, with the surplus trade for rice and flour from the local bulk foods store. About 1 hour week effort.

Also its interesting how to books from the seventies and earlier have the solutions for today - in a way we always knew - "One Straw Revolution" and "Diet for a Small Planet", just a couple.

Son of a Farmer, in our rural community here in Australia, the same issues, along with the longest drought in memory have placed similar pressues on our communities. Most of our struggling farmers are growing wheat and grain for feedstock cattle on marginal land - the most inefficient use of land and water, but completely consistent with Hydrocarbon Man and the current crumbling trade systems.

Those farmers in the know and with some financial space thanks to favourable exchange rates, are moving to diverse crops of organic vegetables and grains for local markets. Those desparate and used to doing to same thing year in, year out are turning to GM crops, another false god.

This town where I live is frantically working out how its going to feed 7000 people with no secure water source, and marginal land more suited to gold mining.

Its amazing the answers that come back when you ask the right questions.

And for the person who suggested buying ammunition.... try collecting seeds instead.

You can hoard food and protect it with guns. Or you can grow food for the hoardes.

v said...

An article today in a Dutch newspaper:

The leaders of 8 Central-American countries (Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Nicaragua and Costa Rica) agreed today on the indroduction of a joint currency. The leaders of these countries agreed also upon 1 passport for citizens of these 8 countries. This all was discussed at a SICA meeting.

Unfortunately I can't find an English article, but I believe this article is from their main website:

http://www.sica.int/busqueda/Noticias.aspx?IDItem=30783&IDCat=3&IdEnt=1&Idm=1&IdmStyle=1

Mike, when can we expect your new book? I can't wait to read it.

Vincent

gildone84 said...

Since the government distorts our economic figures all the time, look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-6 figure for a more accurate picture of unemployment. What's gets reported to the media is U-3. U-3 excludes people like those whose unemployment benefits have run out, but who still want to find a job.

Someone in the economics field once told me that the U-6 figure is calculated most like that of European countries. For November 2008, it's 12.5% (up almost 1% since Oct):

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

For comparison, here's average EU unemployment for October 2008: 7.1%, ranging from 2.5% in the Netherlands to 12.8% in Spain.
Cumbersome link, but here's where I got it:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/PGP_PRD_CAT_PREREL/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008_MONTH_11/3-28112008-EN-BP.PDF

Andrew Ryan said...

For me, I am making full use of the energy while we have it. I am also enjoying a few energy luxuries while they're still available.

In other words, you're a hypocrite. Not practicing what you preach, yep that's a hypocrite. Preaching on about a die-off and PO, yet you use way more oil/energy than the average person! How convenient for you!

Time to be held accountable

Mary said...

Are these the sort with their hands held firmly to the wheel and eyes fixed unwavering on the road ahead?

http://www.codexalimentarius.net/web/index_en.jsp

gaelicgirl said...

I'm an "armchair farmer", but my husband has been an avid organic gardener for many many years. Because of my armchair status, I read a lot about it, finding it fascinating and probably one of the most important topics there is. The two publications (well, make that three), that I read that seem to have the most relevance to our situation today, vis a vis peak oil, deteriorated soils, recession, and that have the least amount of commercial advertising (in two cases, zero) are: Acres, USA; Small Farm Journal (apparently quite a few folks out there seriously farming with draft horses); and Wise Traditions (more about what to do with the food after it's grown, but suberbly intelligent publication concerned with local production, small farmers issues, NAIS, and etc. Wonderful reading, all of them, if you actual active farmers have time! (Or a spouse who does).

Jenna: did my post to Emmanuel regarding credit cards not come through? Or did you decide not to post it for some reason? (I don't think it was offensive in any way....just think it's a good idea to cultivate personal responsibilty as a general rule, and particularly in times of stress).

Peter J. Nickitas said...

Does this make Robert Mundell the new Goldfinger?

http://www.gata.org/node/6792

P.S. If anyone on the blog is too young to understand the reference, please check the 1965 film "Goldfinger," starring Sean Connery as Agent 007, in which an evil billionaire struck a deal with the People's Republic of China to corner the global gold market by detonation of a "dirty nuclear bomb" inside Fort Knox.

brell said...

hey RF, when i was in japan i too noticed that farmers didn't seem to be rich gnomes like banksters aare, and they were all fairly old from what i could see. in my out in the sticks (1.5hour from tokyo) town of under 100k, the farmers used small, small tractors. but there are rice farms in every small town, and many within a mile or two of train lines. japan subsidizes its rice production so as to actually have domestic production. very smart--self reliant.

i can see a lot of japanese stop using private autos and that would save enough fuel to run the tractors for a couple years, if the country stored that fuel instead in silos just for emergency and farming uses... but long term it will probably help to lead to more gainful employment.

japan has that 60-40 mix of part-time jobers living at home and elites who go to college. probably shrinking now to 80-20 as in america, that is the trend...

a shrinking pop. there will help with peak oil. i hope japan eventually reaches its Edo period cusp of sustainability... still lots of forest outside the cities...

in the suburbs where my folkds live i am intent on turning their lawns and concretre backyard into edible gardens. not that thats the main issue--what we all need are GRAINS

Zachary Stowasser said...

Way to be positive mike.. :) I'm already doing your advice! ha. Taking a trip up to northern cali - my friend just moved up there on land. they have a pond (that was recently put in by the community up there, "barn raising 2008") and are planning for orchard/garden/etc.

Life is so precious and we are at the peak of so many things. We have the ability to do, see, be, learn and have anything we want. Let us use this time wisely. We are so lucky here in the USA and other "rich" countries. Let us bring forth good and help build a sustainable world for those who wish to stay.

Let those who are asleep stay asleep and they will be gone within our lifetimes. For those who are awake, grab them and give them a big hug and maybe even a kiss. show them your appreciation and love and how excited you are to be alive in this moment. we are so lucky. I feel so alive.

much love everyone!

Anne said...

Here is an article bewailing the sufferings of the very rich during this financial crisis. On one hand, a comedy of the absurd, yet it goes to MCR's "Honest Quote" re: the speed and ferocity of the downturn.

www.vanityfair.com/magazine/2009/01/wall_street200901

Note the comment at the end where a woman says.."we have enough, health and a roof and good food and family"...

No matter where you are in your plans and actions to prepare for collapse, just beginning,or on the farm, the very fact of your reading and posting here shows you are way, way ahead of the people in this article.

Don't be fooled into thinking the rich will all survive because they have money, and we will not because we don't. We have awareness and resources and knowledge. Most of us here, at very least, will not be caught by surprise.

Food and water folks....store what you can. It will be scarce, soon.

MCR said...

HUA = Head Up Ass.

Jenna, you are such a lady. I am not so burdened.

MCR

Russ said...

I second that emotion on using all the tools the enemy uses, regardless of how much we may criticize and personally loathe the tools themselves.

The way I've always looked it is the way I look at pacifists and disarmamentists. - It's insane to unilaterally disarm.

So while I refrain from luxury uses (though I seldom would want luxuries, so it's largely a moot point), for the sake of this work I'd use any tool, any weapon, any tactic, as much as is necessary.

(On a related point, as for those who attack overpopulation activists by saying "How dare you have any children, then." Or better yet, "Then why don't you kill yourself?", the proper response is, to be blunt, there are people who should reproduce and many more who should not; there are people who should live and those ( like the antagonists mentioned above) who should not.)

sudeep bhaumick said...

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2008/1205.html

:O

sudeep bhaumick said...

The author goes on to say this in the article...

"I have often been told that the U.S. Mint is already open to gold, witness the Eagle and Buffalo gold coins. But these issues were neither unlimited, nor were they coined free of seigniorage. They were sold at a premium over bullion content. They were a red herring, dropped to make people believe that gold coins can always be obtained from the U.S. Mint, and from other government mints of the world. However, as the experience of the past two or three months shows, one mint after another stopped taking orders for gold coins and suspended their gold operations. The reason is that the flow of gold to the mints has become erratic. It may dry up altogether. This shows that the foreboding has been evoked by the looming gold backwardation, way ahead of the event. Now the truth is out: you can no longer coax gold out of hiding with paper profits.

If the governments of the great trading nations had really wanted to save the world from a catastrophic collapse of world trade, then they should have opened their mints to gold. Now gold backwardation has caught up with us and shut down the free flow of gold in the system. This will have catastrophic consequences. Few people realize that the shutting down of the gold trade, which is what is happening, means the shutting down of world trade. This is a financial earthquake measuring ten on the Greenspan scale, with epicenter at the Comex in New York, where the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center once stood. It is no exaggeration to say that this event will trigger a tsunami wiping out the prosperity of the world."


Can someone throw some light on this...

FTW admin said...

they're talking about revealing that the emperor has no clothes, there's no gold in the coffers. "full faith and credit" in the usg vanishes in a nanosecond.

FTW admin said...

mike

i ain't no fukkin lady, you know that.

wasn't me who didn't spell out 'fukked up beyond all recognition.'

Athene said...

Anne,

I shook my head a lot while reading that article you posted.

I actually feel very sorry for the rich. Those of us who are already at the bottom know that being here is really no big deal. Can't buy what you want? No problem...you either go without, save up for it, create something out of what you have, or borrow it.

The journey down for the "haves" is going to be hard, hard, hard...

Mike, I've meant to say this for awhile, but thank you for making me THINK about this stuff. What an immeasurable gift!

Mark said...

do you all want me to set up a 72 hour Permaculture deign course screening? Its Goeff Lawton's design course. I filmed it, and have it to show somebody? I dont know what to do with it.
Its freaking incredible. Before you make your decision on where to eco nest you need to see this.

Dana said...

Hello,

I'm an econ student and i stumbled upon this site while doing research for one of my papers.
I wasn't going to post any comment since i know that most people who read these blogs don't want to hear anything that contradicts what they already think.
Still, i have 10 min. so here it goes:

There's only a certain amount of oil in the soil and we use at a very rapid pace. The US uses 7 billion barrels a year mostly for driving and as more people around the world start driving (India, China), the world's oil supply will continue to shrink. It's natural some people assume we're running out of oil.

It wasn't long after we started using oil that some people began telling us we're running out of it:

- in 1874, John Strong Newberry, Ohio's chief geologist, predicted that the world's oil supply will soon run out;
- in 1973, the State Department's james Akins, then our nation's top oil policy maker, published "The Oil Crisis: This Time the Wolf Is Here" (warning about peak oil, of course)
- in 1979, President Jimmy Carter warned that "oil wells are drying up all over the world"
- in recent years, the New York Times reported that "oil reserves are expected to dwindle"

The only thing that's more abundant than these dire predictions is oil itself.
MIT economist M.A. Adelman points out that "the doomsday predictions have all proved false", the oil production in 2003 was 4,400 times greater than it was when Newberry sounded the alarm.
Sure, oil does run down sometimes, i.e Texas's output peaked in 1972 but as Adelman says "The running out vision never works globally. At the end of 1970, non-OPEC countries had about 200 billion remaining in proven reserves. In the next 33 years though, the same countries produced 406 billion barrels and now have 209 billion "remaining".
The OPEC countries started with about 412 billion in proven reserves, produced 307 billion, and now have...about 819 billion left."

If there is a fixed amount of oil, how can we use so much and end up with more than we we began?

The answer has to do with ignorance and ingenuity.
We are simple ignorant of how much oil really is stuck in the earth.
In order to accurately predict oil reserves in the ground, we would have to be able to see in the future to know how technology will progress.

Technology is key because it determines how much oil we can pull out of the ground. For example, prior to 1950 no company drilled offshore for oil because the technology did not exist. Today, we ca drill in water 10,000 feet deep and offshore oil account for 1/3 of US oil production.
This illustrates the second point: human ingenuity.
When Newberry predicted in 1874 that the world will run out of oil, he wasn't counting all the oil underwater, he was only counting "proven reserves" with existing technology in 1874.

So, in conclusion, sorry to disappoint you, we're not running out of oil and i guess the proof will come pretty soon since the gentlemen who runs this blog, Mr. Ruppert, predicted that next year this time we'll all be cold & hungry...except we won't.

fusion_is_fundemental said...

I assume that "irksome comments" was meant for my comment to the previous post that wasn't published. If so, I see nothing wrong with my comment. It gets to the point without the fluff and misleading rhetoric of carrying capacities and mother earth, etc.

It is was it is. And MCR being a former cop I'm sure would recognize that regardless of whether it's a matter of survival or not.

In any case, on looking into thw matter further, it seems that the new administration as well as many in the industrialized and non-industrialized world are leaning in the direction of Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors as evidence by the senate bill I mentioned and some top scientists taking notice.

whistling grizzlybear said...

what Raymond said, "Getting 10-15 families together to coordinate a years planting in each persons back garden".

i got a chance to witness that cooperative effort in a Composting Class taught at the local JC. it was a hands-on class taught by a retired Berkeley prof. soil scientist named Will Bakx. he currently manages a facility that converts 300 tons a day of yard "waste" into ... dirt. very high quality dirt.

in the exercise we did in the class, we had 2 teams of about 8 people each with pitchforks. one pile ended up being about 8 cubic yards, the other team had a pile of 4 cubic yards.

a week after contruction, the large pile was running at 160+ degrees F.

3 weeks later, we combined those 2 piles and were left with about 4 cubic yards. (12 cubic yards reduces to 4 cubic yards). this is the accelerated version of returning the nutrients to the soil. done right, hot composting does 2 years' worth of decomposition in about 2 1/2 months.

anyway, it was a fun group effort. also, oil free (except for the fact that we all drove to the farm).

this kind of soil management is the opposite of what Big Ag does, pouring fertilizer onto depleted dirt.

hot composting is a really good skill for people to learn as a Peak Oil survival skill. basically taking wood, leaves, lawn clippings, and various manures, and turning it into premium dirt that plants love to grow in.

right now big machines truck the yard waste 20 miles into the countryside, and then people drive 20 miles to get to Will's place. they have some really huge machines for turning the compost piles. diesel machines everywhere. sitting on top of a landfill that outputs methane, which powers a 7 mW electricity facility next door.

that process will become more localized as Peak Oil progresses. i.e., instead of trucks driving "yard waste" to some place way out in the country, we will need to group together to do it in backyards and on vacant lots.

Anne said...

Whoa....Andrew Ryan;

Anyone who isn't using the energy and resources available now, to get ready for the future, is a wee bit short sighted. I can save years of work on the farm by using a rented tractor now and won't be a major depleter of the remaining fuel My farm, however, will be ready to offer veggies, eggs, firewood, etc., this next summer instead of three years from now.

In the meantime, I'll also train the horses to pull the carriage I bought, and hopefully pull a plow when the time comes. But for right now??? I agree with MCR totally. Use every thing available to prepare yourself. Burn the lights to read and educate yourself on survival, growing food, saving the soil. Used your car to haul in supplies to carry you through the first hard times...You get the idea.

This is not hypocrisy...it is intelligent use of resources. There is a difference between using wisely and pissing away. And, a little pissing away isn't bad either on occasion....if it brings you a smile:)

Anne of the farm

Anne said...

The link I put in for the article about the rich folks doesn't seem to work. Google 'Wall Street Profiles in Panic' and it comes right up.

Sorry.

FTW admin said...

dana

the peak oil movement does NOT allege we're running out of oil. the emphasis is on the PEAK of production.

if someone wants to explain the rest to you, fine. i doubt they do.

FTW admin said...

mark

would geoff lawton grant permission to post it on the net? youtube?

stu said...

Anne,

Being an economics student, I would have expected more from you! Your argument is expected though, given that we've created an educational system in this country that doesn't require deep thinking.

Since you are an economics student, and I'm sure you're overwhelmed with churning out papers at such a rate that you only look for aguments in support of your thesis. If you actually had the time to study up you'd find that you cherry-picked this site because MCR lays it out clearer than anybody.

The oil reserves that OPEC countries claim to have change over time. They do this because if they did not adjust their "proven reserves", then their country would lose all stability and the global economy world implode. The current implosion of the economy "popped" because it is no different than a ballon that gets filled up with too much hot air.

Peak oil is not a "theroy", and if you look back a few posts, you will see that the IEA just released a revised report on the decline of global oil supply. I believe it went from a annual decline of 5.8% to 9.1%. As MCR explained, GDP growth correlates 96% to the burning of fossil fuels. Given this, the economy had to collapse.

If our educational system actually gave us time to research and learn about things, all of us would have higher iq's and question the policies that TPTB are pursuing. That is not what they want though. Henry Kissinger says so in my post above.

Peter J. Nickitas said...

Mike and Jenna:

Here are two more ominous gold stories that predict the demise of the dollar, the imminent unavailability of gold for dollars, and a projected price of $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce.

The articles agree on the phenomenom of a lower price for gold futures versus today's spot price, and they show the means by which traders find a way to make money on any news.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228499200.php

http://www.goldworld.com/articles/buy-gold-below+spot/351

Peter J. of Minneapolis

FTW admin said...

dear john

pls post link, not article. thx

KimB said...

Dana, here’s Dr. Colin Campbell’s 1999 presentation to the British House of Commons, read it to get some very basic facts:

http://www.oilcrisis.com/Campbell/commons.htm

And here’s his CV:

http://energycrisis.org/de/cv.html

. . . . and I guess the numerous oil companies who have employed him in extremely senior positions are hard headed and realistic enough to employ a geologist who actually knows what he’s doing, because if they were employing econ students with zero practical knowledge, they’d have gone broke by now.

Also, has anyone seen this London initiative, it’s brilliant:

http://www.capitalgrowth.org/

D! said...

Yo!

Mike, I live in the 90066 on the border of Mar Vista and Culver City. perhaps we could meet at Geo's? Have a cup of good coffee or tea? More or less to shake your hand and just say "thanks." My treat, of course.

D!
TextileDysfunction@gmail.com

MCR said...

D, please send Jenna a post labelled "not for blog" and tell me a bit about yourself. I don't recall seeing posts from you so I'm not familiar with you.

I have to use a little prudence when meeting strangers. In principle it sounds cool.

MCR

gildone84 said...

Dana:

Your argument isn't anything that the peak oil aware haven't already heard many times and the folks at theoildrum.com, ASPO, and elsewhere haven't already analyzed to death. You're way late for the party. You need a time machine to get there on time now...

Anyway, as others have already said, peak oil is not and never has been about running out. It's about the production rate over time.

Bottom line: when it comes to oil, geology trumps economics. In fact, it never ceases to amaze me that most economists seem to think that the laws of physics can be ignored: for instance, the idea that something can grow indefinitely (like the economy) within a finite system (like the earth).

Cheers, and good luck in school...

fusion_is_fundemental said...

Sorry I should have put this in one post. Don't know how many people are inclined to click that link or watch an hour long video so here's some more info

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHs2Ugxo7-8

The LFTR is unique, having a hot liquid core thus eliminating fuel fabrication costs and the need for a large reactor. It cannot have a nuclear meltdown and is so safe that typical control rods are not required at all. This design topples all the conventional arguments against conventional energy sources in such areas as:

* Waste Production
* Safety
* Proliferation
* Capital Costs and Location
* Environmental Impact
* Social Acceptance
* Flexibility
* Grid Infrastructure
* Efficiency

Here are the slides in case you can't see them on the video
http://www.energyfromthorium.com/ppt/LFTRGoogleTalk_Bonometti.ppt

And a blog about thorium baser energy
http://thoriumenergy.blogspot.com

Especially check out this entry in that blog:
"The Rosy-fingered Dawn of the Second Nuclear Era"
http://thoriumenergy.blogspot.com/2008/11/rosy-fingered-dawn-of-second-nuclear.html

And this briefing paper by Dr. Jim Hansen
Tell Barack Obama the Truth – The Whole Truth
http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/20081121_Obama.pdf

It's quite clear that hydrocarbon based chemical energy is not sufficient for the next step in the evolution of technological society.

Hydrocarbon fuels are so 20th century including thier doom scenarios.

FTW admin said...

D'
when you send me the email or comment as per mike's suggestion, please include your email address/ it doesn't come thru' on blogger

Anne said...

Stu,
I think you meant to direct your comments to Dana, not me.

Anne

sunrnr said...

Kind of ironic that at the top of the article about the job outlook is an add for the CIA ....

namaste

High Priest of Green said...

"I dont know what to do with it.
Its freaking incredible. Before you make your decision on where to eco nest you need to see this."

Mark,
I'm interested!

Michiel said...

Hi Mark,

Do you have 72 hours of film material? Putting that on youtube might be a bit cumbersome...

However, it could be put onto a torrent network.

That is, if the permission to publish is there.

If you do this you can always put small parts on youtube as to attract attention to the torrent.

A final possibility would be to transcript it and take important stills from the video... cumbersome, yes, but absolutely the smallest filesize and easiest to distribute.

Mark said...

andrew ryan wants to kill the messenger and he probably likes to blame the victim as well. A true imperial thinker. If Mike and anyone else wants to use the energy train while it still last for the benefit to bridge people towards another plan, then all be it. People seek the truth and are waiting on implementation for a new plan. Why should I start retrofitting bad design which is America? Why do I have to go spend 80 grand for a solar infrastructure on a mic mansion that I own, when I know that if 400 people got together and pitched in 100 grand (400 million dollar budjet)we could build a power park model of that like,www.ecosoul.org. They are leading the world in implementation. I am a personal friend of Skip Staats and he is so close to developing projects in Tahiti, Jamaica, and Manilla just for starters. Hes taking waste and turning it into energies. transportation fuels. Hydrogen. We could mine landfills. I have been trying for 4 years now to get my Hollywood network into permaculture designs. I do not know if you would want to rally the troops Mike. But I have a 100 grand, and am dreaming to put a power park model demonstration project somewhere.
I like the Southern Georgia wetlands area. Its the largest national park in America, 500 thousand acres. As a permaculture certified designer, I can think of no better place in America other than the sub tropics, to build all options of design. For example, fresh water prawns. I can go do this project alone, but I need community. We all need community.So I have the burningman art theme camp people ready. I have Hollywood ready. Well getting closer. I will keep you updated. I am so entrenched in editing Geoff Lawton the director of permaculture research institute's entire design course. Mike we know the same people from Mofilms. I would love to have a lunch with you. You need to lead the march to an eco village. I would follow you.
Russell Berns, President Ecosutra.
russell@ecosutra.com
If we all put a little resources into a project we could get a FTW perma camp going. 20 grand each, what you say, hey? I'll move down there and set up design with anyone ? Do not go on the edges of arid lands. Use 50 inches of rain a year rather than the 12 Ashland Oregon gets. Northern California is a limited plan of options. I do nto like that area. Regulations on harvesting water alone is enough reason to bail out on that plan. Know your water. Have you all heard this one? "Peak oil leads to peak water from peak population?" Brock Dolman. They say the south is on a drought. I call BS, its over consumption.
Michael Kane and I were both press at ASPO Boston University 2006.Hey Mike!!!

My top 3 favorite permacultures are
#1 Quail Springs cuyama valley CA. They are recharging the spring line. Bringing back the water as we speak.
Panya project Thialand- They are Americans
Regenerative Design Institute- Marin county Ca.
You all have to see Quail Springs.
There is no eco village implementation that isnt full of hippies. And I love hippies, but I need more diversity. That is why 98 percent of intentional communities fail. So lets start with a poor black town in South Georgia? Northern Cal is boring!

businessman said...

Mike...Thanks for the kind words about missing me.

Our community in here has grown so immensely over the last 30 days that I find myself reading what everyone is saying, and not posting nearly as much.

There is no other site like this one anywhere on the Internet. The quality of people and the level of participation from around the world in here is incredible! If you don't already see this take a look at some of the posts at the end of articles on sites like CNN.com and CBSNews.com, and you'll understand this even more. It's really a Jerry Springer-like world over there when reading their posts!

Rice Farmer... I remember the days when there would be maybe 4-10 posts per article in here...before Mike returned...and you'd have 40-70% of them! I'm convinced you're a Bodhisattva, and your commitment to serving others is extremely admirable.

Mike, it is so wonderful to have you back in action in here again. I know for you to experience the greatest passion imaginable in your life you need to be doing what you're doing and serving others. Just do everyone including yourself a favor and do it with just a little more overall balance in your life this time, OK?...;)

And Dana...there's a lot I could say about your post, but I'll reserve it and instead give you two additional resources. Grab a cup of coffee, maybe some soda, a couple of sandwiches, and completely lose yourself in this site:

http://www.LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net

The U.S. Congress itself has quoted from this site, and if you doubt the existence of Peak Oil, you may want to read U.S. House of Representatives Resolution 507, which explains the urgency with which the House feels that Peak Oil needs to be addressed:

http://www.scag.ca.gov/rcp/pdf/summit/bartlettHR507.pdf

The unfortunate thing, though, is having lived through the educational system and having a Piled High and Deep degree myself, your Professor will probably give you a much higher grade for writing your paper along the lines of the arguments you've already presented to us.

John said...

China and the Global Financial Crisis
By
Henry C.K. Liu

http://henryckliu.com/page175.html

Zachary Stowasser said...

Mark - can you elaborate on the water harvesting limits of northern cali?

What about climate change, are you planning for that? The weather seems abnormally warm.. Are we to be nomadic and this century will be remembered as us moving north (to water), where centuries past we were moving west?

One major reason I am motivated about moving to more water is because of irrigation. We are dependent on plastic for drip irrigation. So I am on a mission to find an alternative. Bamboo piping / Furrows using pond water or simply planting site specific perennials that can survive on rainwater - and supplemented by mulch and earthworks (swales, berms, etc)

I currently live near Ojai and I am regretting that I didn't go see geoff when he was here earlier this year, I just wasn't quite ready. I have seen his dvds and some interviews, he is an inspiration. I look forward to watching the course that will go online.

Please keep in contact, my email is zacharystowasser (at) gmail.com

John said...

Wall Street, Not the Auto Industry
Obama's Favoritism

By MICHAEL HUDSON

http://counterpunch.org/hudson12082008.html

Mark said...

Zach, I hope to be as short as possible. But so much to tell. Geoff Lawton's PDC,I feel its the Water in the holly grail. California is dying. The San Joaquin Valley, from generations past, has salted the soil and rotated crops to a salting tipping point thats going to take a 1000 years to recover. There were 17 scientist at the course. Next year Geoff is going to be in South Dakota. They all said that the valley only has 10 years left. If you want to grow food in California in the future you better start swaling on contour. Southern California is a desertification zone, growing and moving north. With Quail Springs being the start of a riperion zone in the southern California mountains.They are recharging the spring line, to dream of a day that the Salmon could return after 75 years of extinction. The Salmon could return up 5000 feet to the Cuyama valley from Ojai Ca. You can only repair landscape from top to bottom. Farming arid landscapes and turning them into salt has created its on peak. So any water harvesting, or dam building will be absolutely controlled.
Other stories of failing earth systems. Mars food distributors and their African coco plantations are dying. They have asked Geoff for help. Israel has now drained the aquifer to a point that the Mediterranean is now 43 kilometers inland. They greened the desert with bad design. Earth systems are failing. Australia is dead. Geoff does not know how it is still alive. The maroon darling river is dying. Australia's only cat 3 river. But if you really want to freak out. Get google earth and take a look at these places. For starters,look at the Brazilian border between Paraguay up and down the Parana river. Its all soybeans, for paint. You cant even eat these soybeans. They spray so much pesticides. Oh ya, Las Vegas is sinking. Atlanta is the worst place of all! Its December, and Lake Lanier is 20 feet below average. The tri state water war. Florida needs to get their rain water capture act together. If Manhattan harvested all their rain water, they would have more water than they out source. We are in a global siege on resources. We are in it now. Obama can not do anything about it. I need permageddon.

Mike said...

i think this clip says it all...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ9U4Cbb4wg

the Music Man opening scene

martypantsROK said...

I just saw this today from Business Week:
Investors
Expecting Deflation


"3-month bills are now trading at a negative yield, meaning buyers get a guaranteed loss, albeit a small one. One trader cited by Bloomberg noted that companies are eager, even desperate, to show they hold only ultra-safe T-bills on their balance sheets for fourth quarter earnings reports so they’re willing to accept the negative or zero yields."

Fun times ahead, for sure