Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Congratulations to All Cassandras On Y/our Pyrrhic Victory


from Jenna Orkin:


Russian Scholar Says US Will Collapse Next Year
Deja vu. Resurgence of the prediction that made the rounds a few months ago.
Beginning Now, the Panic Phase of the Collapse
Shock and Awe Economics
With about the same degree of success as in Iraq.
Dow Could Hit 4000
Buffett Says Economy in Shambles; Promises Recovery
Buffett Warns America of Onslaught of Inflation
What a sport.

Record Euro Zone GDP Fall as ECB Meets
German Industry Suffers Collapse in Demand
EU Pledges Eurozone Rescue
European Central Bank to Set Record Low Rates
ECB Cuts Rates to Record Low as Economy Sinks, Job Losses Mount
Europe's Freefalling Property Markets
European Manufacturing Contracts at Record Pace
Economic Crisis Threatens the Idea of One Europe
Eurex to Focus on Europe for Clearing of Credit Default Swaps
Bank of England's Printing Presses Ready to Roll


Ukraine's Naftogaz: Armed Men Enter Headquarters
Infighting Behind Raid
Iran Oil Bourse May Use Russian Ruble
Russia: A Bank Run [October] and Fear of a Repeat
Georgia Appeals to West Over Russian Bases
Russia: Armored Vehicles to the Palestinian Authority


Does New Zealand Face the Fate of Iceland?

Court Issues Warrant for Arrest of Sudan President
Bissau President Killed; New President Installed
South African Manufacturing Declines to Record Low


South Korea's Exports Drop 17.1% on Global Recession
South Korean Won Drops to 11 Year Low
SKorea Reports Record Fall in Industrial Output


India: RBI Rate Cuts Fail to Prop Markets
Citibank Applies for More Branch Licences

Economic Crisis Raising Specter of Public Unrest
World's Most Dangerous Countries
Time to Take the Blame for Unrest
China to Announce Stimulus as Fears of Social Unrest Arise
Where'd they come up with that novel idea?
Riots in Algeria
Armenia Riots
120 Thousand Take to Streets in Ireland
Unrest in Medina
India Pakistan Cricketers Attacked Reax
Where's the Evidence of India Hand in Lahore Attack? Pakistani Media (Hindu News)
Pakistan's Democracy in Peril
Power Play Behind Bangladesh's Mutiny
Gujarat Riots
Malaysia Unrest
Kenya Riots
Deal Ends Weeks of Unrest in Guadeloupe
Racial Unrest in Paris Texas


Half of World's Population Owns a Mobile Phone: UN Study
See MCR's last entry on necessity of land line

Surveillance Self-Defense
Pending Home Sales Hit Record Low in January
Construction Activity Falls at Record Pace in February
Bank of America Charges May Surge as Mortgages Marked to Market
Enron redux? On steroids?
Stock Doom and Gold Boom

Quote of the day:


Put the feds together with state and local hacks, altogether they will consume 40% of the nation's total output. Whoa...that's put it close to the levels of such free-market bastions as Zimbabwe and Algeria, both with 43% of spending done by government...and Hugo Chavez's Venezuela, where the government spends 41% of GDP.By contrast, in France, that socialistic, bureaucrat-saturated country with the croissants, 53% of GDP is spent by the government.






But wait...in France healthcare is a government industry and so is the passenger train system. In America, 17% of GDP is spent on healthcare. As for the passenger trains...forget it...in America, we scarcely have any. So, if you add the 17% spent on private healthcare to the 40% you actually get a total higher than that of France. www.dailyreckoning.com

40 comments:

Sebastian Ronin said...

Panarin is becoming somewhat of a secessionist poster boy. What is troubling is the extent to which he is being trotted out by the corporate media. First there was the WSJ picking up on the original November story on December 29. Then yesterday both MSNBC and Fox picked up on the AP wire story.

So what is popping my antennae is the “legs” that the story is being given by the corporate media. As with most things, I am lead to ask "Why?" What is the motive? Unlike our coincidence theorist friends, we do not have the luxory of thinking that things of a political nature haphazardly fall out of the sky. Re the "legs" given to the Panarin story, makes one wonder, yes?

ecosutra said...

Oh you all are going to love this.
Its videos like these that make me want to enslave , monitor, and socialize Americans, We got to seize assets from American corporations like Chavez and the Cargil rice bastards. No more time for debate. Time for eco permaculture fascism. Ole Willie did it, well we can do it easier, and stack all the species of plants all at once. We Dont have time to wait. Life systems are at tipping points, and I want action now!

This video got me all worked up, I am having an emotional attack!

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/willie_smits_restores_a_rainforest.html

Hef Lee said...

Wow. Alot. Mike said in his last post that the comments should be about survival and community, furthering all of our efforts. I am one who believes that one of the most useful things to do in this world currently is to learn actual survival skills. Any number of scenarios may force exodus from urban and sub areas to more wild, "uninhabitable" places. This is the sacred order: 1.shelter 2.water 3.fire and 4.food. This dictates all of our lives already, and we take it as granted. The grocery store has no food, the heat hasn't worked for a week, water doesn't come out of the faucet, everyone is angry and confused, and what are you going to do. If fleeing becomes the only sensible option, your awareness becomes your strongest tool, to avoid the chaos as much as possible, to see where the road block is, simply, to stay safe and fulfill the sacred order. These skills are the roots of green living, of sustainability, of spirituality, of science and of humanity's history and future.
There are many books that, just looking at once, may help you in an emergency. There are also schools. Tom Brown Jr. is well known for his books and his school in NJ. There are schools and communities all over the country. Get the Peterson's Edible Wild Plants guide, Learn how to prepare and cook game etc.... lifetime of info.

Romanov said...

Citi is now a penny stock.

http://www.marketwatch.com/

Couldn't happen to a better bunch of crooks, unfortunately we taxpayers are collateral damage

in_the_light said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aG0_2ZIA96TI&refer=home

Follow up on the bloomberg suit. Interesting stuff. If this were a legitemate effort to "fix" the economy, it seems to me this info would be open so as to allow for understanding as to where our problems are.

Understand it (TARP) under the premise of a fast collapse with a few employing an exit strategy, and it makes sense.

Norm Lowry said...

You're simply amazing, Jenna!

Euripides described Cassandra's "booty" as bittersweet", even though Troy's defeat equated to victory. May all Cassandras be fully immersed in the Styx, removing their vulnerability to not being truly heard.

in_the_light said...

Over at the dailyreckoning, Kunstler has an article about "What's Next?" Everyone should check it out. He says the "next systems to go will probably be farming, transportation, and the oil markets..."

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/peak-oil-whats-next/

My question to this group of readers is When do you see these going? And can you point me to some info showing their place in the row of dominoes?

I suspect nobody can say for sure when they will collapse, but I am curious as to what people here might suggest about the timing of these systems.

RanD said...

in_the_light-- Your Howard Kunstler perspective from http://www.dailyreckoning.com/peak-oil-whats-next/ I'd say is (as I regularly judge it to be, coming from Kunstler) as right-on-target prescient as possible. I, for one, don't get any more specific about "When" such things will arrive on the scene other than to say soon enough to get one's psychology in place if one wants to avoid apoplexy. As for "their place in the row of dominoes?" seems to me irrelevant. All of it's going to come close enough together to be suitably labeled one big intimately correlated ball of insoluble gear glue. Just from this Cassandra's perspective, of course.

Diaspora said...

The German online magazine LifeGen.de interviewed Baxter Pharmaceuticals US PR guy about the “accidental” comingling of the H5N1 and H3N2 viruses. I’d be curious to know what our family of sleuthing bloggers gleans from Bona’s responses.

“Baxter's Chief of Communications in the US, Christopher Bona, supported our idea for an exclusive interview, so Jutta Brenn-Vogt, Manager Communications at Baxter Deutschland GmbH explained LifeGen.de what really happened with H5N1, and how security measures - not only at Baxter - should work on a global scale.”
Link to interview:
http://www.lifegen.de/newsip/shownews.php4?getnews=2009-03-02-2412&pc=s01

Shiner said...

Sebastion I would say the "why" of this story getting MSM attention is the cloud. I read Panarin's prediction long before the MSM touched it.

If you read the MSM stories it becomes apparent they are doing damage control. The use of the primacy/recency effect by the MSM on this story is telling. All the stories begin and end mocking Panarin.

The primacy recency effect claims that people mainly remember only the first and the last thing they see, read, or hear. Its why you write an introduction and a conclusion to academic papers and buisness reports.

I believe the web is keeping the story alive despite the MSM trying to kill it. The PTB obviously don't want the idea of seccession taken seriously. These latest stories attack and ridicule Panarin, Putin, and Russia. The PTB are scared and it shows. They should be scared too because not once in the history of man has an empire failed and the elites not been replaced.

kiki said...

'i’d be curious to know what our family of sleuthing bloggers gleans from Bona’s responses.'

the interview sounds like a lot of nothing - spin to minimize the risk
to me

the risk is real and it doesn't matter a hoot that he promises it won't happen again - once is all it may take to set off a cascade of events and deaths

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/02/27/8560781.html

v said...

Mike & Jenna:

Mike's book is posted over here:
http://prernalal.com/banned%20books/

Stumbled upon that site while browsing....Some other good books are listed as well. Don't know whether you are ok with the fact your book is listed there, just wanted to let you know.

articles:
What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)

NZ Plugs Into Secret Pentagon Intranet


SENATE MOVES TO GIVE FDIC $500B LOAN



V(incent)

businessman said...

OK...Since I'm apparently the only person in here who doesn't know what a "Cassandra" is, Jenna, can you or someone else in here please enlighten me?

FTW admin said...

Gunnar Henrioulle has left a new comment on your post "Congratulations to All Cassandras On Y/our Pyrrhic...":

reproduced in part:

Oil extender formula at ASPO articles 374 and 1037. Initiate with recommissioned railway operating and maintenance batallions at all the State National Guard Departments. This supplies needed rail savvy personnel for local rail link rehabs.

Interested parties, not already given uppers, (O Woe is You)see spv.co.uk for US Rail Map Atlas Volumes, select for your locale. Refresh, (collectively) all the US County Planning Bureaus with the past and present rail corridor in USA. Begin, methodically and with resolute determination, to re-establish local rail connections, initially on mains by adding enroute containjer and trailer handling facilties. This brings local trucking interface back into play. Stematically, and orderly lessening of long-haul trucking trip miles, extending liquid motor fuel for agriculture, etc...

Next the branchline rehab, sort of a triage, bringing easiest (intact trackwork, etc.) to minimum service levels then upgrading as volume builds. These things are not going to be completed in time to assure smooth transition away from just-in-time trucking mania, but you are not starting from scratch either. Trunk line rail already runs, can run on renewable, can be replicated back to the 1900-1950's model.

See Christopher C. Swan's "ELECTRIC WATER", and also study the Pacific Electric rail operating methodology; day passenger, night victuals and freight deliveries to downtown and neighborhood interface. Renewables linked and stand-alone transport doctrine.

Second Dimension Surface Transport Logistics Platform: See James A Van Fleet's Rail Transport book from AAR Library, (202-639-2100) and also, download "GCOR" from web.

eyeballs said...

Bird flu is a distraction from more important work.

When I was in elementary school, we had to go through elaborate (and absurd) fire drills to prepare for a nuclear attack by Russia. These did not provide actual protection, but normalized the idea of constant threat. The natural reaction to nuclear peril was to oppose the arms race, but defense industries gathered together The Committee on the Present Danger and made certain that fear always trumped reason. The same has been true in recent years. If there is any deliberate skullduggery here, I think that fear is the object, not pandemic itself.

The Baxter interview was typical post-crisis spin: "No cause for alarm, people, return to your homes." But the "mistake" and subsequent leak had the inevitable consequence of making the flu seem that much more sinister and proximate. Yet our chances of getting it are still indeterminate, and have not really increased.

“Ban the Bomb” got nowhere, but at least there was a recognizable target for dissent. The Cheney administration also presented a visible target, which concentrated dissent against a recognizable band of villains. Activists pointed to Rumsfeld’s complicity in the bird flu scare as yet more evidence against the administration. It was one more thing to point to and say "Look what these fiends are capable of."

The Obama administration, however, does not present such a target. It contains some sterling characters as well as a few rotten apples, and the chances of obtaining a better administration in four years through activism and electoral politics seem slender indeed. Activism must therefore target specific, achievable aims. Bird flu aint one of em.

Within the new political situation, there are issues we may successfully influence, and many we probably can’t. Bird flu falls into the latter category. It’s an invisible target, the dangers are nebulous and there is no point at which we could claim a definite victory. If ye can’t win, don’t fight.

In my humble opinion, the age of activism AGAINST the government needs to immediately cede place to an age of activism IN SPITE OF the government. There is a possibility that the current administration, or elements of the previous one, or villains we have never heard of, are planning new and horrific incidents to disrupt popular influence on the political process – or even to depopulate the Earth. But what is to be done? In spite of any stupid or malevolent or mistaken thing the government might do (and that leaves a lot of room, I realize) we still have to do what we can.

The possibility of flu wiping out the young and the strong (thank you Diaspora for your correction) apparently exists, but it’s uncertain. May happen, may not. If it happens, it may be massive, or not. We cannot march against it or petition against it. There is little we can do little to prepare, other than to accept the possibility and know that we may have to work around a pandemic in the future.

The one solution being offered is the immunization shot from Gilead Sciences, which enriches you-know-who. But that’s uncertain, also. The shot could in fact be worse than the disease. Or you could get the disease anyway because the vaccine did not cover the strain that actually broke out. So no matter what we do, we may die of bird flu, possibly because of deliberate efforts by contemptible individuals. Add it to the long list of things that MIGHT happen to us but PROBABLY WON’T.

Instead of worrying about the flu, we can get busy and respond to the dreadful lack of good topsoil by making some. We can gradually diminish our humiliating dependence on industrial consumerism. We can work on our relationships so that time and love and mutual aid are not chewed up by misunderstanding and inappropriate individualism. We can plant seeds and save seeds and put away food and form co-ops and learn to shoot straight and get used to eating things grown near our homes. And, I respectfully submit, we should get on with helping each other do these (and many other things), and leave pandemics to God or Mother Nature or fate or whatever. We have work to do.

Anne said...

Businessman,

Cassandra is a woman from Greek mythology. She was cursed/doomed to always have to speak the truth, but never be believed. The story is much more complex, but with this wee bit I'll wager you'll have a great time discovering the details. I love the old myths!! I believe she was known as Alexandra to the Romans.

Rice Farmer said...

In the interest of posts that will directly help people prepare, I offer you the lowly potato. You accomplished gardeners need read no further, as this is a recommendation for newbies. Potatoes are easy to grow, provide a respectable harvest, and keep well. If you are wondering what to try first, make it potatoes. There's plenty of information on the web. Get started now.

businessman said...

Thanks for the info on Cassandra, Anne!

Sebastian Ronin said...

Shiner, re "The PTB obviously don't want the idea of seccession taken seriously. These latest stories attack and ridicule Panarin, Putin, and Russia. The PTB are scared and it shows."

Agreed. The implied link of NAmerican secession to Russian adademic buffoon is obvious. As young, dawdling, probing-to-find-its-way the secessionist movement is, it still pre-dates the Panarin media splash. There are a handful of NAmerican secessionists that could easily have been interviewed for commentary. Granted, even had that been done, a buffoonery spin would have been applied. But that still would not negate that a nascent movement is out there. The editorial position would seem to be somewhat evident: out of sight, out of mind.

Re "buffoonery spin" see the following interviews with secessionists at the wrap of the Second North American Secessionist Convention in Chattanooga, 2007. See O'Reilly interview:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyB346Mfawc

and Beck interview:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSKBRpDVwuI

That's okay. We're at the second of four stages: First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

Sebastian Ronin said...

in the light, re Jim Kunstler:

Kunstler can be a bit of a liberal scheister, plus some of his historical and political takes are quite pedestrian and U.S.A.-centric, to say the least. In “The Long Emergency” he’s all gagga about the breakdown of the nation-state. So what happens? He receives an invitation from the secessionists in Vermont to speak at a secessionist rally in the State House. The stupid buggers didn’t bother to vent his speech. He ends up taking a big, public dump on the secessionist movement. Too funny!

http://www.kunstler.com/spch_Vermont%20Oct%2005.htm

This happens to be a fairly concrete example of the political immaturity of some secessionist groups. That speech should have been cleared, edited and/or tossed, with a diplomatic gesture of thanks to Mr. Kunstler: "Thanks for showing up. Kindly have a seat, a coffee and donut, and take in the proceedings."

Sebastian Ronin said...

Furthermore re Kunstler and such politically liberal ilk:

It would seem that as things currently stand, the leading “radical” voices in the Peak Oil community, e.g. Kunstler, Heinlein, Ruppert, Savinar, Orlov, still cannot bring themselves to the conclusion that the institutional breakdown they recognize and advocate includes the social institution of the industrial nation-state. There is a serious philosophical, ideological, political, and I would say, U.S.A.-centric, blind-spot at work here. The most ludicrous fringe of this philosophical non-position is, of course, that Papa Obama will fix all and mom, apple pie and baseball will be painlessly back on the agenda before we know it. Such pedestrian finger-painting is even evident amongst secessionists who have not yet worked through the paradox and political schizophrenia of attempting to be a “patriotic secessionist.”

If the average person on the street is stopped and questioned as to from where stems his/her sense of nationalism, one might well be informed that it is a genetic pre-condition. That is, of course, nonsense. Nationalism is learnt behaviour, it Pavlovian conditioning to the max.

Until such time as the disintegration of the industrial nation-state (in our case, the United States and Canada) is legitimately incorporated into the Peak Oil dialogue, then the Peak Oil movement remains a political skeleton, a sham and hoax, of what it could and must be.

You can’t have it both ways. Massive and cheap energy flow-through over the last 150 years, with the guidance of capital, created the industrial nation-state. The lack and negation of same translates into the demise of said nation-state. To keep heads stuck in the sand around this eventuality merely chases the best of intentions into the herd of denial, but with oh such radical and progressive differentiations.

Paul said...

eyeballs said:

Bird flu is a distraction from more important work.

Excellent post eyeballs. We live in dangerous times and we need to stay aware of what may come at us from left-field... but we must also keep our perspective of what we must do to survive the risks that we know are coming for certain.

FTW admin said...

Hikikomori has left a new comment on your post "Congratulations to All Cassandras On Y/our Pyrrhic...":

Eyeballs, I like the way you think. The path to salvation is really narrow and only few find it. It leads between the wall of denial and the abyss of panic.

We are here because we came (or still coming) out of chronic denial. But as soon as one wakes up into apocalyptic reality, it's very easy to fall into deadly panic or bounce back into even stronger, mind splitting, mad driving denial. As the things are getting worse and worse, we're gonna see more and more of it.

So I guess, in order to save as many as possible, we should shift our main focus from awakening -- towards panic prevention and ability to move forward in-between.

I don't say that the whistle of scary predictions should shut up. I want to say that noise of falling rocks is doing the job as well.

As panic increases we should learn how to stay not infected by it, nor fall back into drunk sleep. And keep moving forward, if we know where and how to -- which is the most important ingredient of the antidote against panic. But even if there would be nowhere to go and nothing could be done -- I still want to live or die in peace, not in fear, knowing that I've done my best.

Pandabonium said...

"Those who cannot feel the littleness of great things in themselves are apt to overlook the greatness of little things in others."
~Okakura Tenshin (1862 - 1913)

businessman said...

Here are two excerpts and a link to an article in the Washington Times describing how falling oil prices are causing inventories of oil to sit idle:

"The latest government records show U.S. inventories are bloated with a virtual sea of surplus crude, enough to fuel 15 million cars for a year. Inventories have grown by 26 million barrels since the beginning of the year alone. Oil from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria is finding few takers, even though much of it is used to make gasoline in the United States."

"One fear is that with oil prices so low, companies will slash drilling and production, setting the world up for an energy crunch that would send prices soaring. The number of oil and gas rigs operating in the United States has fallen a staggering 39 percent since August."

Click Here for the Article

Diaspora said...

Like any of the current resources available to direct some light on the true situation at the moment, I read Kunstler with a grain of salt. I think he is right on the money in many regards, esp. that everything must revert to “local” if we are to survive. I have spoken to him twice after energy forums and am very disappointed with his public position on what went down on 9/11. The man is no fool and as we on this blog and FTW know all too well, anyone who dares to be brave enough to hold the lantern of truth to the official story ends up sacrificing MUCH. I believe he knows that not only doesn’t the collective emperor have any clothes but no reproductive organs either. We must be intelligence analysts and take what we can use from every report.

For those who believe that Bird Flu is a distraction I would urge you to consider the following from 2006:

“The ‘North American Plan for Avian & Pandemic Influenza’ was finalized.
NORTHCOM, U. S. Northern Command has a webpage dedicated to the Avian flu and has been running exercises for the use of U.S. forces when the flu strikes. In the finalized plan, President Bush has delegated control of the United States to the United Nations system influenza coordinator and not to U.S. agencies. They will also be able to supersede all U.S. laws and place us under martial law.”

Remember that NORTHCOM forces are now among us. What is afoot?

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?pageId=43256
In less direct terms from:
http://www.state.gov/g/avianflu/77458.htm

On a very positive note I heard a well regarded monetary expert on a radio program today say that yes we’re about to crash financially but that Globalization is going over the cliff with us! They will be victims of their own unintended consequences.

Howlin_Dog said...

Civil Unrest in the good ol' US of A.

Glenn Beck on Fox Network talked about a doomsday scenario. He called it “The Bubba Effect”. There is a lot to think about in this. Obviously what was said in the news clip, but this one requires a lot deeper digging. Why now? Why was the term Bubba chosen?
I am in the process of forming my opinions so I will keep quiet, but here is a link:

The video news clip itself and the question... Who is Bubba?: Bubba Effect

Sebastian Ronin said...

Howlin Dog, re "Why now? Why was the term Bubba chosen?"

First of all, thanks so much for tossing up that link. Many of us, myself included, do not venture near an idiot box (aka TV). The trade-off for not doing so, IMO, is a fairly healthy brain. However, much on what the corporate gatekeepers are putting out is missed. I am subscribing to Brasscheck as a way to get around this liability.

Outside of the notion of "Bubba" being so damn elitist, in answer to your question, here's my take on it. Beck's agenda is as transparent as a sheet of glass. He howls for this scenario to not play itself out, while in the same breath conditioning the public psyche for its eventuality. I would imagine that this type of "journalism" will more and more pop to the surface via the gatekeepers. They, and their interests, know full well that the jig is up. If we in this blog speak in terms of "civilizational collapse" you can rest assured that like language is being spoken in back rooms.

There is an energy, an inertia, that MUST play itself out. A runaway freight, with no one at the controls, does not come to a stop all on its own halfway down the slope.

Relative to my readings of history, please take the following into consideration: agitation precedes rebellion and rebellion precedes revolution. We are at the agitation stage. It does not yet have a legitimate political face nor representation. That will slowly come into focus during the rebellion stage...I would say within 3-5 years. Owning completely what I write in my own blogs and in this blog, I put forward for consideration that the political face/entity currently tucked away in the womb of agitation is the NAmerican secessionist movement.

Hang on. We are in for one helluva ride!

Shiner said...

Buisnessman, I to have noticed the spate of articles that claim man will be responsible for the decline in oil production. While I am sure some of it is true I would be willing to bet most of it is to cover the geologic decline we face.

If the people can be convinced shortages will be temporary if we just spend more money the PTB can continue to fleece the them. If the majority of the people realize the truth they will demand not only change but a redistribution of the wealth already stolen.

The PTB are walking a tightrope that must break soon.

eyeballs said...

RE: Bubba effect

The name Bubba comes from urban representations of Ozark and Appalachian and Deep South locals, possibly inbred, definitely uneducated, who are well-armed and have trucks, dogs and simplistic ideas. I think there was a guy named Bubba in The Dukes of Hazard, though I never saw a complete show.

Since this "War Room" show was obviously for the consumption of manager-class urbanites, I cannot expect that the desired effect was to encourage militias. On the contrary, the expected effect is for them to get worried about law and order, and prepare them for the heightened demands of authoritarian government.

Sebastian must be correct, that the back room discussions at Goldman Sachs, the Pentagon, clubs of the rich and powerful all over America, are now talking openly about "the days to come". The only people who expect 2014 to be like 1994 are the deluded, the ones with their heads in the sand. The ship is listing about thirty degrees to starboard, and the stern can no longer be seen.

About "Revolution" -- Sebastian commented on the word, and the presenter invoked the French Revolution as well as 1776 -- I think it's an outdated concept. A vanguard party leading the masses into a new era is appropriate when change is not coming fast enough. Currently, change is accellerating on every front, and it's much more like surfing a tidal wave than leading anyone anywhere. If there's any role for "leadership" it is a job of coordination, allocation of power and resources that are already at the disposal of the "leader". Any jostling for position is going to be very costly in terms of what we may have when the smoke clears. Though of course, some must inevitably happen, the important oucomes will not be based so much on who won a contest of strength. Rather, those who have adapted best and managed to get along with each other are likely do come up with what's left of human heritage. IMHO.

Sebastian Ronin said...

Eyeballs, re “About ‘Revolution’ -- Sebastian commented on the word, and the presenter invoked the French Revolution as well as 1776 -- I think it's an outdated concept. A vanguard party leading the masses into a new era is appropriate when change is not coming fast enough.”

The “revolution” that I foresee is actually two-pronged. Firstly, comes a revolution in perception, if not necessarily comprehension. This first revolution will be induced by material conditions and forces, e.g. the hurt. The second revolution will be the actions undertaken as a consequence of both the perception and the hurt. It is the revolution of actions of course that stands to be coordinated, as difficult as that may prove to be. Attempting to tame the wild stallion of revolution carries serious risks: it is either mounted successfully or the political entity that attempts to do so is left trampled in the mud.

I have to strongly disagree that “revolution” is an outdated concept. Such position merely lends credence to the bogus (and Western) notion of the 60’s End of Ideology ideology. Granted, it is a notion that NAmerican culture is ignorant of, squeamishly uncomfortable with, and terribly unprepared to deal with. That, however, does not negate the fact that the fault lines are about to blow or, as you put it, the ship is tilting at 30 degrees.

Re “Rather, those who have adapted best and managed to get along with each other are likely do come up with what's left of human heritage.”

Agreed, but this is the social margin, the fringe. The constituency includes readers and contributors to blogs like this and others like it. It is a drop in the bucket of the social mass. Preaching to the converted is child’s play. Hitting the streets and attempting to explain colours to the blind is a bit more of challenge. A homestead well-positioned to deal with what lies on the horizon is not about to blow. It is the social mass that will blow and if it can be reasonably guided, coordinated, etc. at the local and regional levels then such guidance is in everyone’s best interests and an asset for all. That is not to say that all regions will get it “right” but that is a whole other bag of consequences, yes?

robmac58 said...

Greetings FTW'ers. It has been many weeks since I have had anything to say on this blog.
My thoughts today are about food and growing it yourself. It's the season to be getting those gardens started so here's some ideas to plant and hopefully germinate somewhere.
First, you don't need to own property to have a garden. I am a renter and with the blessings of my landlord am fortunate to be able to grow a small garden where I live. Additionally, I am building a network of off site places to garden, I work another plot at the home of a 91 year old neighbor. She is delighted to have things growing in her garden after so many years. All you have to do is ask!
Further, I have a third plot at a commercial location. It's huge and it's surrounded by a chain link fence.(essential protection from browsing deer.) I do a few hours of landscape maintenance per week there in exchange for the privilege. You don't have to be an actual farmer to do this. Just start doing it and learn as you go. If you can only get 5% of your needs met you are 5% better off than you'd be otherwise. It's also a lot of fun!
My second (renewed) project is about learning how to identify and forage for edible native plants. An important prerequisite to this is to learn to identify the toxic plants in your area. My location has a thriving population of poison hemlock and deadly nightshade.
There are a surprising number of books available on this subject.It's important to fine ones specific to your geographic location.I suggest that one start out modestly. For example, Dandelions are food. They grow everywhere and almost everyone can positively identify them. Get familiar with one plant and then try another. Go slow and be careful. I believe that this skill will be profoundly valuable in the not too distant future.
Foraging natives has the following advantage over gardening. No labor is required to grow these plants, just harvest them.
OK, now stop staring at the screen and go outside! RM

mikedboh said...

GE under close watch for corporate crisis

Direct Link

mikedboh said...

GE under close watch for corporate crisis

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/GE_under_close_watch_for_corporate_0308.html

mikedboh said...

GE under close watch for corporate crisis

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/GE_under_close_watch_for_corporate_0308.html

mikedboh said...

GE under close watch for corporate crisis

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/GE_under_close_watch_for_corporate_0308.html

mikedboh said...

GE under close watch for corporate crisis

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/GE_under_close_watch_for_corporate_0308.html

eyeballs said...

Sebastian Ronin:

Your position is clear. I like the image of mounting the horse or being trampled. But another course is to make a loud noise and force the horse to go someplace else, like back down to New York where it came from.

When you talk about explaining colors to the blind, in the middle of a feces blizzard, then mounting the angry mob like a horse and leading it somewhere, I really shake my head and don't know whether to laugh out loud or sincerly wish you luck. That has got to be among the nastiest jobs history has to offer. And that is why I suspect that the one who actually got his spurs into the horse would probably be among the nastiest characters history could produce.

You talk about "the fringe" as though it were an inconsiderable quantity, divorced from the realities of the new times. But it's my impression that the ignorant masses will, at best, find some way to relate through the deprivation and violence, straggle through, and come out the other side. At worst, we're looking at protracted chaos that will wipe out most of the human population. And you want to be in the center, not the fringe?

I will be doing my best to help the people around me, and I hope we can create, from the fringe of sighted people, as much hope for the others as possible, from a decent remove. If I see any horses coming my way, full of rage and revolution, I will don cammo and prepare diversionary tactics. And yet I really do wish you well.

Sebastian Ronin said...

Eyeballs:

Re “But another course is to make a loud noise and force the horse to go someplace else, like back down to New York where it came from.”

Do you really think that a “loud noise” will suffice?

Re “And that is why I suspect that the one who actually got his spurs into the horse would probably be among the nastiest characters history could produce.”

The role of individuals is beside the point. What type of political entities will mushroom to fill the vacuum, through which it is already possible to drive a Mack truck? It is close; it is real close. The condition merely begs the age old question: “What needs to be done?” It is not a question to be entertained and answered by everyone, nor need it be, nor is it even desired to be.

Re “You talk about ‘the fringe’ as though it were an inconsiderable quantity, divorced from the realities of the new times.”

No, I do not. I do not denigrate the fringe nor detract from its worth. I merely state that it is what it is: the fringe; it is not the mass.

Re “And you want to be in the center, not the fringe?”

It is not a matter of “wanting” to be in the center. That is where most of us will find ourselves. I’m not even certain that the boonies of Novacadia will be exempt from the initial waves of the meltdown. Take your own timeline as example. Do you have the time to make the transition back to Cascadia and set up shop on the fringe, or will you get caught in the storm somewhere along the transition? Or take another example: take 90% of the readers of this blog, with the best of intentions to make the shift tomorrow, yet minus the financial, physical, intellectual, etc. resources to actually do so to-day.

The maxim, “Seize the day,” takes on drastic, new proportions. It forces people to grow up…or not. There is always choice. If it is wisely and properly acted upon is a whole different story.

I reiterate what I have said on several occasions. To reasonably, honourably and successfully navigate through the collapse of a civilization is exactly that. It is not a cake walk, a rehearsal, nor a fireside refrain of Kum By Yah. At the very most, what I can possibly accomplish is to contribute towards the crafting of one brick to be placed into the foundation. The nastiest, and most creative, conditions will fall to your daughter and her generation. The real warriors and amazons are yet toddlers.

eyeballs said...

Sebastian:

"The real warriors and amazons are yet toddlers."

Aye. Teach your children well. It's been boringly comfortable for many of us, but the future is not boring. At least that, eh?

I won't dispute what you say. Yet I feel that "the perifery" is the only center worth revolving around. "Leading" should not be Leninesque, but quiet example and genuine joining of hands. That can't be done with masses, only with individuals, as many as possible. Inveitably, the majority will resist this networking strategy and have to realize it by painful lesson after painful lesson.

I liked Mike's analogy of the ambulance. We're here to mitigate the pain. Eventually, many will learn by seeing, by trusting, by trying. What works, works.

Yes, time is here.

Blessings to all.