Russia's New Nuclear Challenge to Europe

I sent Mateusz' comments to Mike as they were informative. Mike responded below in caps for ease of reading; he's not e-shouting. Blog readers are free to chime in as usual but I don't normally send Mike blog comments that contain merely opinions; I forward only information.

---JO


Mateusz wrote:

As a Polish-American living currently in Poland I thought it would be useful> to shed some views and clarifications here:>> 1. Ukraine is not a party to Missile Shield. It is to be placed in Czech> Republic (radar) and Poland (interceptors).

I NEVER SAID THAT THE MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD WAS GOING INTO UKRAINE.THAT HAS NEVER BEEN THE PLAN. IF IT CAME OUT THAT WAY IT WAS AN ERROR.THE FACTS ARE QUITE CLEAR. UKRAINE HAS OPPOSED MOSCOW THROUGH ITSPOSITION ON THE BLACK SEA FLEET NOT RETURNING TO SEVASTOPOL.THIS WASDESCRIBED IN MY FIRST MESSDAGE ON THE SUBJECT.]>>

2. The negotiated deal included placing Patriot batteries in Poland (as a> countermeasure to direct threat to the mere presence of the shield brings),> and (unofficially) to the Russian short range missile batteries stationed in> Kalingrad. The deal also includes unspecified help for the modernization of> the Polish Army (which is set to be 100% professional by 2009, nad numbers> around 130,000).

AGREED, BUT THE U.S. POSITION WAS THAT THIS SHIELD WAS NECESAARY TODEFEND AGAINST IRANIAN MISSILES. HOGWASH. EVERYONE KNOWS WHAT THE REALCONCERN IS. AND WHY SHOULD THE U.S. BE CONCERNED ABOUT RUSSIAN IRBMATTACKS? BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN PUSHING RUSSIA HARD SINCE THE LATE 90S.]>>

3. Russian government was invited to set up controls of the site by the> Polish and American governments some time ago already, at least since> January 2008.

THANK YOU. THIS IS A VALID POINT.]>>

On the Georgian conflict:>>
1. What maybe did not make the news in the States is that over recent months> Ossetians were pushing Georgians in many ways. Attacking their convoys,> killing their soldiers...intensifying this recently to lure Georgians into> the attack result of which we can see today.

EVERYBODY WAS PUSHING EVERYBODY. BOTH SIDES WERE LOOKING FOR A FIGHTBUT THE U.S. AND SAAKASHVILI OVERPLAYED THEIR HAND.]>>

2. Besides Mr. Sarkozy, the presidents in the coalition of 5 nations> (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine) [toggether respresnting> over 225 million people]> went to Tbilisi just as Sarkozy was in Moscow. Especially Mr. Kaczynski,> President of Poland, was very aggressive and assertive in his speech> denouncing Russian attack.

IT WAS A NICE GESTURE THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON RUSSIAN POLICYOR ACTION. -- THEATER. RUSSIANS DO NOT CONFUSE BALLET WITH BULLETS.]>>

3. Notion of Russian Forces as civilized bringers of peace is very> far-fetched. What perhaps didn't make the news in the States are the videos> (from Bank and store security cameras) of Ossetian and Russian forces> robbing banks and plundering pretty much anything they can get hands on.

I HAVE NOT SAID THAT RUSSIAN FORCES ARE "CIVILIZED" AS YOU CALL IT. IHAVE SAID THEY ARE RUSSIAN.]>>

4. Even if officially denied by Russian Army, such practices are officially> condoned by their surrogate militias. (This from a statement by Russian> general).>>

5. The often repeated information that Georgians killed 2000 civilians in> one night of attacks on militias in Cchinvali (ossetian capital), which is> the reason for Russian invasion, is yet to be independently confirmed.>>

6. However, it might never be, as reporters and journalis continue to be> shot at (Georgian newswomen, and Turkey television crew filmed being> attacked while in MARKED press vehicle)>>

7. While such news reports might be terribly onesided, there is a lot of> surivor accounts of Georgian refugees fleeing from Russian and Ossetian> forces, and leaving burned down homesteads, left with nothing.>> ----> I am bringing all this to Your attention, not because I am a fan of Uncle> Sam's power games. But because there are just some notions that Westerners> might never grasp, simply because they have never, in any generation,> experiened it.>> For countries in the former Soviet Bloc, a greedy and powerfull ally that is> across the ocean, is much better choice than a greedy and barbaric Bear that> is across their border.>> For us, the images and accounts that are coming from Georgia bring back> memories either our own, or as recounted by our parents or gradnparents, of> Soviet occupation, of the intense brutality of these times, and of> incredibly barbaric and at the same time incredibly simple-minded Russian> soldiers.

I AM CERTAIN THAT THE RUSSIANS INTEND FOR THESE MEMORIES TO BE REFRESHED.]>>

Here, Soviets are a worse memory then Hitler.>> As much as I have learned to read the roadmap, I have to admit, this one> thing is extremely difficult for me. To not let the prejudice (toward> Russian leadership), justified or not, cloud the analysis of the situation.

I AM NOT AT ALL PREJUDICED TOWARDS RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP AND I RESENT THE IMPLICATION.


FTW Admin writes: Mateusz, I have send Mike an email saying I believe you were referring to your OWN prejudice toward Russian leadership.

---JO


MCR continues:

I HAVE BEEN TOTALLY CRITICAL OF U.S. DOCTRINE,POSTURE AND PLANNING FOR A DECADE SAYING THAT MISTAKEN U.S. POLICY WOULD PRODUCE THESE RESULTS AND, INDEED THEY HAVE. I UNDERSTAND HOW THE RUSSIANS LEADERSHIP THINKS AND ACTS. I ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT, SINCE 9-11, THE U.S. HAS ADOPTED THE POSTURE "EITHER YOU ARE WITH US OR YOU ARE AGAINST US". IT HAS REDEFINED ITS OWN MILITARY DOCTRINE ALLOWING FOR PRE-EMPTIVE FIRST STRIKE NUCLEAR ATTACK AND EVEN (THROUGH P2OG) THE PROVOCATION OF RESPONSES BY POTENTIAL ADVERSARIES. ESPECIALLYPRIOR TO 9-11, THE U.S. TOOK RUTHLESS STEPS TO LOOT RUSSIA AS IT MADE A TRANSITION AWAY FROM SOCILAISM TO CAPITALISM, TO MAKE SURE THAT IT WAS TOO WEAK TO OPPOSE US MILITARY ACTIONS AFTER 9-11. ALL OF THIS WAS ULTIMATELY PREDICTABLE, WHETHER IT HAPPENED IN GEORGIA OR ANYPLACE ELSE WHERE THE U.S. HAS CONTINUED AN ECONOMICALLY AND MILITARILY AGRESSIVE STRATEGY OF CONTAINMENT. EASTERN EUROPE IS RIGHT TO REMEMBER THE CRUELTY OF SOVIET RULE. HAD THE UNITED STATES ADOPTED A DIFFERENT FOREIGN, MILITARY AND ECONOMIC POSTURE POST 9-11 EASTERN EUROPE WOULDN'T BE IN THIS POSTION. RUSSIA WAS ALWAYS THERE, VERY PATIENT AND GROWING EVER RICHER AND STRONGER FROM ITS OIL AND GAS INCOME WHILE THE U.S. SPENT ITS POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND MILITARY CAPITAL -- WASTING MUCH OF IT.]>

GEORGIA UPDATE -- August 16, 2008 4:15 PM PDT --
Increased risk for nuclear confrontation as Poland and Ukraine feel the sting


Things have passed exactly as forecast in my first report. Looking beneath the headlines the situation is developing in a way that is guaranteed to produce a major "no turning back" confrontation rather than a softening of tensions. I pray for sanity on both sides.

Not only have Russian troops not started any kind of withdrawal, they are consolidating their positions and apparently advancing an agenda that will leave Georgia nearly debilitated as a nation when and if they do decide to leave. [Ed: Mike's original had a Freudian typo of Georgia as GeorgiE. When I pointed it out to him, he replied "oohhhhh."] The Russians have destroyed the Meteki-Grkalibridge in east-central Georgia, a key railway and vehicle bridge serving both as a conduit for supplies from the Black Sea port of Potiand for refugees fleeing war-torn areas of the country. The Russians have also started "massive" forest fires in the Borjomi Gorge Russian troops have made no attempt to leave Gori, and remain as close as 25 miles to the capital of Tbilisi. Russian helicopters have intentionally started massive forest fires in and around the Borjomi Gorge, setting as yet uncounted thousands of acres ablaze. Russian combat air patrols have prevented Turkish firefighting aircraft from rendering assistance. The Russians have also set up roadblocks and checkpoints along key roadways inside the country, slowing the flow of aid relief convoys and other commerce. All of this is in "violation"of the cease-fire accord, signed (tongue-in-cheek) by Russian President Dimtry Medvedev yesterday.

These new aggressive Russian actions came after U.S. allies Poland and Ukraine hastily signed missle-defense agreements with the U.S this week as the Bush administration struggled vainly to make some show of authority. That move backfired and only aggravated Moscow as today's developments demonstrate. Almost instantly Poland caved in and said that it would allow Russian inspections of the (U.S.) missile interceptor base that is proposed. I'm not sure this was in the original U.S. plan for the bases.

Meantime, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced that the cease-fire "seemed to be holding" and President Bush's latest quote on CNN is that Russia has put its "aspirations at risk." -- Huh?

This gets curioser and curioser, and much more dangerous with each passing swing of the U.S. fly swatter at an angry bear. As usual, the first to suffer are U.S. allies in the region. That object lesson is not lost on Europe.


SPEAKING RUSSIAN

Here's my take on what the Russians are saying in a uniquely Russian way. (This is not a real letter, although it could be.)

Dear George Bush and Dick Cheney:

So, you do not wish to accept the genrous terms we offered. OK, then. We will destroy the bridge over which Tbilisi receives most of its supplies from the west. There will be food shortages in the capital and plenty of other shortages as well. The capital city will soon be functioning only at maybe 1/2 to 2/3 of its pre-invasion state. Try to plan and execute something in that environment. It will also cut travel and communication between key areas of the country and it will lock refugees out of less-"stressed" areas. It will not hinder our movements at all but displaced persons will cripple yours. Should the BTC pipeline need repair for any future damages you will not be able to get the materiel and equipment to it. Only we will, and BP will come begging to us for assistance.

We will start forest fires in regions where you or your puppet Saakashvili might like to hide troops, tanks and anti-aircraft artillery. And if Turkey or any other NATO country tries to send aid we will block it, thus proving that NATO is ineffective for the protection of Georgia or any other part of Europe east of Gdansk in the North and Sofia in the South. We will leave Georgia in our own time and in our own way. And when we do leave, we will leave behind an invalid, incapapble of funtcioning without billions of dollars of your aid. You have so much money to spend now don't you? Your own bridges are falling down because you cannot afford to repair them. You are broke and your nation is tired of war after seven years. We are happy to sign your paper so that you may tell your people and your allies that you are doing something but you are only fashioning the noose with which you are hanging yourselves. We are happy to give you all the rope you need for this purpose. It is good, strong Russian rope. You talk -- and we will continue to act in a Russian way that has been feared and respected throughout Europe since the Tsars.

You threaten to kick us out of the G8? We are terrified! Britain, France, Germany and Italy depend upon our natural gas to keep from freezing. And Japan buys oil from us as well. The winter is fast approaching and it could be very cold this year. Very cold. We shut down gas exports to the Ukraine a few years ago and this proved that we could shut down all of Europe.

It is no secret that our military doctrine calls for the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in a potential confrontation with you. This is how we protect against your oh-so-expensive precision guided munitions. You know and we know that we have them in South Ossetia andAbkhasia now.

So what are you doing America? Keep aggravating us and we will continue to punish those countries in the region who support you. You are backing yourselves and, unfortunately us too, into a corner where we both will have to dust off our launch codes. We do not think you really want to do this. We, on the other hand, are Russian.

Perhaps Vice President Cheney will have a heart attack on his way to push the button. We doubt that President Bush can find it.

Have a nice day,


Sincerely,

Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev

-----MCR
****************************************************************************

Iran to Launch Its First Satellite by Next Weekend
Saudi Arabia Invited to Build Refineries in Turkmenistan
Turkey Faces Tough Task in Energy as Map in Caucasus is Redrawn
Nuclear Georgia
While Aide Advised McCain, His Firm Lobbied for Georgia
Before the Gunfire, Cyber-Attacks
"They said the command and control server that directed the attack was based in the United States and had come online several weeks before it began the assault."
Suspected US Missile Strike in Pakistan
Sudden Order for Posada to Stand Trial

-----JO

Turkey's Task as Political Future of Caucasus Redrawn
Oil vs. Water

This nation is tired of war.

It will not mobilize behind John McCain to go into another one, in another country it has never heard of, for reasons it cannot understand. If that is the Neocon strategy they are hopelessly bankrupt. That's why Bush/Cheney are pushing ahead on the road toward military confrontation now. We can expect maybe a MACG: MilitaryAssistance Command Georgia, just like Vietnam. It may even rate a four-star. But that will break this nation's back even before it gets entrenched. Vietnam was the U.S. v. a Russian surrogate. This is head to head, beer v. vodka. There's no cushion.

Georgia benefits Obama more than McCain because he'll have the political sense to say just that. "We've done the military thing for eight years and we're tired. We have resorted to brute force instead of common sense. We tired of that. We risk a global nuclear confrontation without attempting a serious dialogue and adopting aposture that says to the world 'It's not us vs. you. It's us with you.'"

In that way America's eventual capitulation can be camouflaged.

But with US military en route, the chances of a trigger being pulled,U.S. v. Russia, increases exponentially. (Suggest a movie called "TheBedford Incident" with Richard Widmark and Sidney Poitier). The progressives are a day late, a dollar short and way off the mark as usual. The press is saying McCain is more hawkish on Russia than Bush. That's got to be scaring the crap out of folks in Iowa. Even they are educated enough to know that Russia is not Saddam Hussein.

MCR

GEORGIA [Update] -- Tues August 12, 2008 4:20 PDT -- Getting Ready for Round 2

The Russian advance has stopped. Mikeil Saakashvili has said that Georgia will never allow itself to be broken up. Russia has meanwhile imposed an effective annexation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and put a ring of armor around those enclaves with air support above.

Two other events are setting the stage for renewed -- and possibly more dangerous -- conflict. First Georgia has resigned from the Commonwealth of Independent States. Second, NATO has announced that it will proceed with plans to admit Georgia to the Alliance. Excuse me...was that the Georgia that existed last week or the Georgia that exists today as a new NATO member? I cannot see NATO admitting a partitioned Georgia. Saakashvili overplayed his hand and will likely lose internal support. So what? Georgia is a U.S. baby no matter who holds office. Russia and NATO do not appear any closer to blinking even though one of them will ultimately have to. And that's where the presuure on geopolitical fault lines has not lessened. This week may have only been a foreshock.

The big mystery is the markets. WASSUP with that? Apparently demand destruction has given the markets a lot of confidence. I'm not sure what they plan to do about China and India. China's demand is down for the Olympics. They're over in a few days. BP has taken three pipelines down and we have no word yet as to when BTC comes back on line. In the meantime, Caspian production is backing up. Gold is being bombed ruthlessly and some are predicting a drop into the $700 ranges. Great, I'll buy more as soon as that happens.

Apparently the pundits and analysts believe that sinking oil prices are NOT going to encourage renewed demand. That's the part I can't figure out. Conspiratorially setting a floor at around $100 only puts money into the producers' pockets and doesn't spur investment in alternative infrastructure.

Well, the summer driving season is over even if the hurricane season is not. All we have to look forward to is back to school, the winter,and the ever hungry beast of 3-5% depletion. Has Cantarell started to refill on the news of a temporary Georgian cease fire? Ghawar? The North Sea? Burgan? Alaska's North Slope? Indonesia?
-- MCR

According to a Russian friend, Russian news is reporting that the conflict in the Caucasus was instigated by Georgia with material support, in the form of weapons, from the U.S. The motive was to benefit McCain by highlighting the need for foreign policy experience. The fact that the attack took place while Obama was on vacation, resulting in footage of him elegantly relaxing while bombs exploded in an allied country, lends some credence to this theory. The friend also commented on the fact that the American-educated President Sakashvili conducts his press conferences in English.

It's worth noting that two reported attacks on oil pipelines which are of vital importance to Europe have been suppressed in the major media. Still no mention here of the Kurdish attack on the BPC pipeline. And this morning comes this headline: BP Not Aware of Bombing on Baku-Supsa Pipeline. This, despite the fact that BP is the largest sharefholder. Whether or not the attack actually took place, the mere rumor surely merits investigation.

Later: Baku-Supsa Pipeline Shut Down
Gorbachev Op-Ed

On the home front:
FDIC Strained: May Lose 17%
FBI Says it Obtained Reporters' Phone Records

J.O.

I won't have much to say after this. We have to see how things go now.

One other possibility exists: This is another Afghanistan 1979 and theU.S. provoked the attack. There are several reasons why I don't think this likely:

1. The place has much shorter lines of communication and supply.
2. Russians are ethnically dominant.
3. U.S. military is stretched to the limit now. WashPost says US military option not off the table. But with what?
4. I also don't think it likely that Washington is planning a Contra orMujahedeen-style war. There isn't that much time and see Reason 2. Central America and Afghanistan were not home turf. It's a whole different thing to run an insurgency in Russia's backyard. Ask the Chechens.
5. This just looks a lot more like Grenada than Afghanistan.

-- MCR

LATER: Markets reacting slower than expected. Just breaking: Russian troops have occupied a town near the capital (Gori) which signals possible attempt to occupy Tblisi. That would put a whole new level on things. CNN is just reacting now. This is far from over and I still like my analysis. I'll be silent today to see how things develop. We're stillwaiting on Russians to demonstrate full intent. Their military deployment still suggests a wider, longer-term agenda than an In-and-Out. I don't think that has sunk in yet.Just now CNN anchors started saying, "Oh boy... this is getting worse."Oil markets might be cleaning out shorts to reposition. This is still developing

Georgia [Update, Sunday Aug. 10, 2008 -- 5:10 PM, PDT] -- Options running out

It is not possible to overstate how quickly this is escalating. It is clear that US options are very limited, short of nuclear war. Thereare no sanctions anywhere that will cause Moscow to blink. What are we going to do? Boycott vodka and caviar? It has also become clear that the Russians have launched a Blitzkrieg attack which has very specific objectives that have yet to be fully achieved. They now control Georgian airspace and a full-scale cyber attack has paralyzed Georgian C3 (command, control, communications). You can bet that there's a battlefield in space that no one is going to talk about, maybe not until satellites starting falling out of the sky. There is little doubt that Russia will bat .1000 on the battle plan, probably within 2-3 days. This tactic is what Russia prepared for starting in 1946. It's in Russian DNA by now. I'm certain that Russian military commanders are under strict orders to "go for broke" in the region. The second front in Abkhasia and the engagement of the Black Sea Fleet signal that Russia prepared for total conventional war well in advance of the invasion. Therefore the nuclear option has been on the table from Day One. The U.S. pushing back through the Ukraine, which has refused to allow the Black Sea Fleet to return to Sevastopol while the conflict rages, is a limp-wristed move sure to further enrage Moscow. The Black Sea Fleet is going to go anywhere it damn -well pleases.

In the meantime Bush goes to church and a swim meet at the Olympics. It must be difficult for him with his pants around his ankles.

The rhetoric at the UN shows a Russian belligerence unlike any I have seen since Kruschev pounded the table with his shoe. The Russian ambassador is doing everything but saying, "Go ahead, make my day."There's one big difference. Kruschev said, "We will bury you." The Russian Ambassador to the UN is saying, "We have buried you!"

The United States has been pushing Russia hard since well-before 9/11, trying to weaken and encircle it. I devoted a whole chapter to that subject in Rubicon. It is clear that the Bush Administration, in its Neocon cock-suredness, mistook Russia's comparatively tepid responses thus far as a sign of weakness. This is a rope-a-dope strategy that the U.S. looks certain to lose unless it can pull a rather large and intimidating hippopotamus out of the hat. The potential humiliation for U.S. prestige is so great that I would bet that the "football" has been dusted off in Beijing while Hu Jintao wonders what happened to his Olympic games. Either the Chinese had advance warning or they did not. If they did, which I suspect, then it's perfect to have Bush in Beijing where both Russia and China can carve him up like a Thanksgiving turkey. If they didn't, then I'm certain that Russia had a huge carrot to put on the Chinese table as the first tanks crossed the border.

Meantime, not a word from Bush or Cheney who -- I'm certain -- are flummoxed and spasmodic. I can see nothing that will prevent the completion of Russia's Order of Battle within the next few days. So it will be a fait accompli. Russia will not pull out voluntarily. Georgia will be occupied, either totally or enough to make sure that it can pose no risk to Moscow -- ever again. Forget the BTC pipeline. And who is BTC's primary owner-operator? British Petroleum. The simultaneous bombing of BTC by Kurdish PKK (Marxist/Leninist) "separatists" in Turkey drives the point home. "We can take out this pipeline any time we want, from any place we want." Investors in Caspian oil are going to start drastically rethinking their decisions. Caspian production is certain to fall and I can now see a possibility that Russia might eventually get what it has wanted more than anything, a return of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan into a Russian sphere of influence. If that happens, especially as Saudi Arabia is starting t ofade, Russia will be the energy king of the planet, especially in terms of natural gas.

More importantly, Russia may have just succeeded in breaking theAnglo-American alliance. Russia has just beaten the United States over the head with Peak Oil.

Zbigniew Brzezinski should have remembered that chess is a Russian game.

Still lacking is any apparent response from Georgia's southern neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has been solidly in theU.S. sphere for a while, but both small countries must be quaking in their boots, fearing that their own southern neighbor, Iran, might get into this from the south. If that happens, all bets are off and Iwould say that nuclear war would be a certainty within days, if not hours. For the moment I believe that Iran will remain silent and just watch with glee, as I am sure it has thus far.

Britain has been officially silent. So has Germany in any meaningful sense. They depend upon Russian energy. There are few voices of consequence to do anything other than make lame sterile pleas for a cease fire. There will be one, just as soon as Russia finishes what it started and we don't know yet how far they plan to go, especially since it seems there is nothing at all to stop them.It is all in the map we drew together.

MCR

Georgia and Russia - a wake up call and a party crash -- Watch oil and gold prices now!

Just as US financial and political powerhouses were celebrating the results of their demand destruction and the "recovery" of our financial markets after the terrifying June/July run-up in oil prices, the Russians went and messed everything up. Even I had forgotten for a moment the Hegelian dialectic which says that if you create (or worsen) a problem (soaring fuel costs), you can solve it and get a result you wanted from the start. In this case U.S. interests got relief for terrified consumers, good news for CNN, CNBC and Wall Street, suppression of rising gold prices and a massive reinvestment of fresh cash in the markets. They found the price point at which Americans stopped (fled from) consuming: $4 a gallon. Yippee, let's go back to talking about windmills, ethanol, offshore drilling and tirepressure. I had forgotten that the last two espisodes of summer demand destruction, both connected to British terror threats, hadn't really accomplished that much in the way of demand destruction. I guess Bush overdid it with the Iran rhetoric. Oops. Can we talk about John Edwards please?

Russia has just brought the energy discussion back to the only real problem there is, Peak Oil. For the moment the Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan(BTC) pipeline is its reigning symbol. In six months it might be Nigeria. In six weeks it might be a Cat 4 in the Gulf of Mexico. Supplies are tighter now than ever before. These "tweaks" from opposing sides are producing wild and schizophrenic market fluctuations that threaten to topple the teetering gyroscope of the global economy and its shifting balances of power. I wonder if Zbig Brzezinski can keep up with all this speed chess.

The BTC pipeline, so familiar to FTW and Rubicon readers, carries about a million barrels a day of Caspian oil around Russia to a Turkish port in the Mediterranean from whence it gets shipped to Europe AND the U.S. It happens to run right through Georgia. Mor eimportantly, since it strated operations just a few years ago, it has represented Europe's last (belated) futile hope for energy independence from Russia. Take a million barrels a day offline, or threaten to in a global oil market with no elasticity or swing producers, and watch what oil and gold prices do. The ramifications of this are enormous as the Saudis get pushed nearer the inevitable point at which they have to admit decline as the world will inevitably run to them for another dog-and-pony show of increased production.

I am laughing at all the pundits who were predicting this week that oil would drop back below $100.

This new Georgian conflict is not going away soon and I doubt if it'sgoing to calm down. In fact, the first 24 hours have signalled thatit is going to intensify rapidly. Russian planes have been shot downand there are heavy casualties on both sides. Today, Reuters is reporting that Georgian officials have claimed that Russian attack aircraft attempted (unsuccessfully) to hit the pipeline itself. Clearly it (which runs just south of the Georgian capital, Tiblisi) is threatened and going to stay that way. Europe is almost totallydependent upon Russian oil and especially natural gas to keep from freezing in the winter. That dependence has been worsening every year since (ironically) 2001. Just three years ago Britain surrendered its energy sovereignty to the EU because it couldn't survive without Russian natural gas. So America will be going this one alone (again). Until this war started, Georgian troops represented the third-largest international "coalition" force in Iraq after the U.S. and Britain. Those troops have all just been called home. I tracked U.S. Special Forces activity in Georgia for many years. Georgia's tough little army is a U.S. client, but no medium or long-term match for Russian military might. If -- or should I say "when" -- the pipeline isbreached it will signal a major earthquake along the over-strained east-west fault line that is Russia v. the West. This earthquake has been inevitable for years and I predicted it clearly. This conflict could signal a point of no return which would play into John McCain'seagerly awaiting hands. Brinksmanship is about to be reintroduced to awhole new generation only this time there is no place to "duck and cover".

The war began just as both U.S. presidential candidates were welcoming a breather from the energy crisis which has left them looking like the total incompetents they are. The bombs started falling just as U.S.financial markets were sucking in new cash flows away from gold and as consumers started returning habitually and dangerously to old habits."Hey America," says Vladimir Putin, "Think you have the energy problem under control? Think again." Britain, France and Germany have no choice but to soft-pedal their response. The Ukraine was a bitter object lesson for Europe. This will leave the U.S. and lesser lights standing alone against "Russian aggression". This is the same problem the U.S. always faced over Iran. Neither it or Israel could ever attack Iran because that would have taken oil away from Japan, China, India and much of Europe -- and they would never have stood for it.

We now live in a world governed by the black rule of oil which saysthat he who has or controls the oil makes the rules. The U.S. has no right to complain about this posture. It's the one we defined, adopted and set in motion after 9-11 and the one with which we justified our invasion of Iraq to secure control over the second-largest kown oil reserves on the planet. Remember Dick Cheney's war that would go around the world and not end in our lifetimes?

Be careful what you ask for. What I wouldn't give to be a fly on the wall as Bush and Putin talk"turkey" in Beijing...

Olympics? What Olympics?

MCR


Since Mike wrote that, a related article has surfaced concerning the bombing of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline by Kurdish rebels. The timing is striking, no pun etc.

J.O.


Later: MCR has now commented on that news:

Re: simultaneous "Kurdish" bombing of BTC pipline in Turkey with Russia/Georgia war, shutting it down. I hate to say it but this makes more sense...

The Russians have penetrated and run PKK as an asset. (That would be a coup, but I've been out of touch.) They have launched a second-front attack, threatning the pipleine from both sides. If that's the case then this is the worst tension I've seen since 9-11. We may have gone to Defcon 2 already. The message is clear: 'We can take out this pipeline easily from any direction. There's some high stakes bargaining going on and it looks like the U.S. has a bluff hand.

Another option: It wasn't the Kurds -- It's Gladio. If that's it then all I can say is, "Bend over...".

Monday there's going to be mayhem on the markets. If there isn't, then we're watching a charade... I doubt that.--

MCR


The possibility that Russia is running the Kurds as an asset seems plausible. See:
Russia Urges Turkey to Show Restraint Over Iraq's Kurds

JO


I got the PKK confused with our old allies from the al Barzani era, another combination of Ks and Ps. The PKK is Marxist/Leninist, always has been.

So what we have here is an out and out Russian smack in the face, or something intended to appear that away. This then, is terribly overt and direct.

Might the Russians be saying, "You just rocked the global economy for your own ends. Now see how it feels."I think the Russians have the stronger hand. China's in on it too I suspect.

There might be good to come from this. It might force the players away from tinkering further and risking an absolutely insane economic meltdown that would crash everybody. It's also pushing Peak Oil much closer to the center of the table.

Remember a few weeks back when I wrote that the biggest tipping point that would start a collapse is official acknowledgment of Peak and what it means. But the sooner that happens, the sooner we stop digging the hole deeper and begin to dig out.

-- MCR

JO adds: MCR has now seen the article posted above about Russia urging Turkey to show restraint towards the Kurds. He writes:

"This makes it look like Gladio...

time will tell. This is through the Looking Glass."

Water
"Every eight seconds, for example, a child dies from drinking dirty water. Every year, a new desert the size of Rhode Island is created in China because of drought. In the developing world, 90% of wastewater is discharged untreated into local rivers. By 2050, 1.7 billion people will live in "dire water poverty" and be forced to relocate.

Women of South Africa collectively walk the equivalent distance to the moon and back, 16 times a day for water."
Secret Report: Biofuel Caused Food Crisis
Bread Subsidies Under Threat as Drought Hits Wheat Production
Economic Collapse Snapshot
Ultra-Deep Water Drilling
Extraordinary Rendition
American University Law Review article
About-Face on Iran
US Exports to Iran Increase in Bush Year

From the department of, "I'll give you something to protest about:"
Italy's Plan to Defuse Uproar Over Fingerprinting of Gypsy Children: Fingerprint Everybody

Impact of Plastic Bags
Looking to Reopen RFK Murder Trial 40 Years Later
The placement of the article says it all: It appeared in the gossip section.

Pickens [Energy] Plan Taps Social Networking
Brothel Offers Customers Gas Rebate

J.O.