GEORGIA UPDATE -- August 16, 2008 4:15 PM PDT --
Increased risk for nuclear confrontation as Poland and Ukraine feel the sting


Things have passed exactly as forecast in my first report. Looking beneath the headlines the situation is developing in a way that is guaranteed to produce a major "no turning back" confrontation rather than a softening of tensions. I pray for sanity on both sides.

Not only have Russian troops not started any kind of withdrawal, they are consolidating their positions and apparently advancing an agenda that will leave Georgia nearly debilitated as a nation when and if they do decide to leave. [Ed: Mike's original had a Freudian typo of Georgia as GeorgiE. When I pointed it out to him, he replied "oohhhhh."] The Russians have destroyed the Meteki-Grkalibridge in east-central Georgia, a key railway and vehicle bridge serving both as a conduit for supplies from the Black Sea port of Potiand for refugees fleeing war-torn areas of the country. The Russians have also started "massive" forest fires in the Borjomi Gorge Russian troops have made no attempt to leave Gori, and remain as close as 25 miles to the capital of Tbilisi. Russian helicopters have intentionally started massive forest fires in and around the Borjomi Gorge, setting as yet uncounted thousands of acres ablaze. Russian combat air patrols have prevented Turkish firefighting aircraft from rendering assistance. The Russians have also set up roadblocks and checkpoints along key roadways inside the country, slowing the flow of aid relief convoys and other commerce. All of this is in "violation"of the cease-fire accord, signed (tongue-in-cheek) by Russian President Dimtry Medvedev yesterday.

These new aggressive Russian actions came after U.S. allies Poland and Ukraine hastily signed missle-defense agreements with the U.S this week as the Bush administration struggled vainly to make some show of authority. That move backfired and only aggravated Moscow as today's developments demonstrate. Almost instantly Poland caved in and said that it would allow Russian inspections of the (U.S.) missile interceptor base that is proposed. I'm not sure this was in the original U.S. plan for the bases.

Meantime, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced that the cease-fire "seemed to be holding" and President Bush's latest quote on CNN is that Russia has put its "aspirations at risk." -- Huh?

This gets curioser and curioser, and much more dangerous with each passing swing of the U.S. fly swatter at an angry bear. As usual, the first to suffer are U.S. allies in the region. That object lesson is not lost on Europe.


SPEAKING RUSSIAN

Here's my take on what the Russians are saying in a uniquely Russian way. (This is not a real letter, although it could be.)

Dear George Bush and Dick Cheney:

So, you do not wish to accept the genrous terms we offered. OK, then. We will destroy the bridge over which Tbilisi receives most of its supplies from the west. There will be food shortages in the capital and plenty of other shortages as well. The capital city will soon be functioning only at maybe 1/2 to 2/3 of its pre-invasion state. Try to plan and execute something in that environment. It will also cut travel and communication between key areas of the country and it will lock refugees out of less-"stressed" areas. It will not hinder our movements at all but displaced persons will cripple yours. Should the BTC pipeline need repair for any future damages you will not be able to get the materiel and equipment to it. Only we will, and BP will come begging to us for assistance.

We will start forest fires in regions where you or your puppet Saakashvili might like to hide troops, tanks and anti-aircraft artillery. And if Turkey or any other NATO country tries to send aid we will block it, thus proving that NATO is ineffective for the protection of Georgia or any other part of Europe east of Gdansk in the North and Sofia in the South. We will leave Georgia in our own time and in our own way. And when we do leave, we will leave behind an invalid, incapapble of funtcioning without billions of dollars of your aid. You have so much money to spend now don't you? Your own bridges are falling down because you cannot afford to repair them. You are broke and your nation is tired of war after seven years. We are happy to sign your paper so that you may tell your people and your allies that you are doing something but you are only fashioning the noose with which you are hanging yourselves. We are happy to give you all the rope you need for this purpose. It is good, strong Russian rope. You talk -- and we will continue to act in a Russian way that has been feared and respected throughout Europe since the Tsars.

You threaten to kick us out of the G8? We are terrified! Britain, France, Germany and Italy depend upon our natural gas to keep from freezing. And Japan buys oil from us as well. The winter is fast approaching and it could be very cold this year. Very cold. We shut down gas exports to the Ukraine a few years ago and this proved that we could shut down all of Europe.

It is no secret that our military doctrine calls for the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in a potential confrontation with you. This is how we protect against your oh-so-expensive precision guided munitions. You know and we know that we have them in South Ossetia andAbkhasia now.

So what are you doing America? Keep aggravating us and we will continue to punish those countries in the region who support you. You are backing yourselves and, unfortunately us too, into a corner where we both will have to dust off our launch codes. We do not think you really want to do this. We, on the other hand, are Russian.

Perhaps Vice President Cheney will have a heart attack on his way to push the button. We doubt that President Bush can find it.

Have a nice day,


Sincerely,

Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev

-----MCR
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-----JO