Michael C. Ruppert
I did some searching around the net today for explanations about oilprice drops and found a striking theme: Oil prices are dropping because all of the forecasters -- especially after the airlines Wachovia, Fannie and Freddie -- see the economy continuing a major downslide and they know that demand is going to continue to fall because more are unemployed or broke. Now we've known about demand destruction for years since we started pulling it from Goldman Sachs, Merril Lynch and others. We have been on the bumpy plateau for more than two years where spikes slow demand and oil prices easing after that encourages everyone to drive and spend more; the vicious short-lived cycle. So what seems clear from this is that no matter howfar oil prices drop (and I can't see it being more than another $10 for a few months), there isn't going to be any relief at the pump. That would only lead gullible Americans to drive more which would increase demand again. But I'll bet you the airlines and major industry will benefit from the price slack until the next big shock ina few weeks or months.
I don't think Joe Consumer is going to be too happy because he or shewill be expecting relief that isn't going to come.-- MCR
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
21 comments:
Thanks, Michael for still writing occasional articles for all of us!
As you already mentioned would happen, more people are now stepping forward claiming that they have the solution to the energy problem. Even former game show host Ben Stein was offering his solution to the problem on Larry King the other night.
I would imagine at the same time many insiders are going to sell their projects to Congress to get funding for them, all at the expense of the rest of us.
Here's what oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens is now pitching to Congress...major projects involving wind power:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/07/22/tech/main4284589.shtml
Yes, thanks so much for sharing your insights, Michael.
Here's one for you...
The government's Main Core database, a "watch list" reported on by Radar Magazine, has been exposed by Salon.com as an NSA project spying on U.S. citizens using modified PROMIS software. The Salon article also includes confirmation by a former U.S. intelligence official that the NSA did indeed use the PROMIS software.
Good to hear from you Michael.
You said, "I don't think Joe Consumer is going to be too happy because he or she will be expecting relief that isn't going to come."
They won't be happy -- they will be looking for someone to blame -- as usual. Most people still don't get it.
Always great to hear from MCR.
What Joe Consumer expects -- and what too many well-meaning energy gurus still promise -- is that wind and ethanol and algae etc. are going to prop up what petroleum has built. What a shock there's going to be.
Oil may get cheaper for a while, but there's something important to remember here about demand. The question is whether demand has been "destroyed" or just "sidetracked." If fuel prices get cheaper, the sidetracked demand is going to spring right back. That too is going to further aggravate the problem.
A most welcome post from MCR. Thanks.
China's thirst keeps growing - their economy is expanding at what? 10% a year? Business with the US represents 8% of their economy. That tells me that even if the US tanks, there will be little in the way of demand destruction on their side of the Pacific, which could leave Americans with both a poor economy AND ever higher oil prices.
I agree that Joe American will be disappointed and looking for someone to blame. As Matt Simmons recently said on a TV interview - (paraphrasing here) "we should be looking for solutions and instead we're having a witch hunt."
People just refuse to look beyond this crisis, and can't bear to believe that the "good life" can ever come to an end - the world as we presently know it. It takes a combination of guts, experience and ability to have such vision. But Peak Oil needn't be an apocalypse; something very good - better in fact - can and will rise from the ashes of today's diseased phoenix.
Right On Michael!
You probably already know this, but I wanted to Publicly Congratulate Ex - Democratic Rep Cynthia McKinney for accepting the Green Party Nomination for the upcoming November 2008 Presidential elections.
I've posted some thoughts and related info on my blog http://saynotoglobalgovernance.
blogspot.com
Again, Michael, awesome to hear from you.
johnny
Dear Michael,
Thank you for all your great work.
I would like to point everyone to some comic relief which could be useful as an ice-breaker among friends and family.
It is a show called "Robert Newmand's history of oil" by Robert Newman. I found out about it at http://www.peakoil.nl/.
Link to the first part (of 9): http://youtuhttp://youtube.com/watch?v=kQhhrzHKMhIbe.com/watch?v=kQhhrzHKMhI
Thank you Micheal and everyone here and previously at fromthewilderness.com
Michiel
I concur entirely with Mike. I believe that the recent proclamations from industry kingpins that oil will hit $250/$300/$500 are the best indicator of where we are heading. Maybe a hurricane will send it that way. Who knows but we have already been warned that it will get to those heights.
Great to hear from Mike if only on the odd occasion. I credit him and FTW with my having got totally out of debt, into my own food gardening and heavily invested in physical gold. FTW gave me some of the best advice and insights I ever took. :-)
China oil use soars in 1H despite high world prices
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/24/content_8762162.htm
Speaking of blackouts, a topic in the previous post, take a look at India. There is one hell of a lot of load shedding going on. Of course you can interpret this as an "energy shortage," but it also points to huge pent-up demand. Of course load shedding is happening in other countries, too.
Hi Jenna/Mike
Your readers may be interested in this BBC drama aired on Wed & Fri last week, called "Burn Up"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00crgk4
It's about oil and global warming but then halfway through Peak Oil comes flying out and it talks about the problems it will cause.
Ok, its fiction based on fact but I found it odd that part 2 of the program was not aired on Thursday but Friday evening. Did they not want to spook the markets?
Hi Jenna/Mike,
That link was to Burn Up episode 2
Here is episode 1!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00cr619
Regards
Paul
Michael sometimes I think your are an agent of the elite because push the "peak oil" theory and in one of your lectures you have praised the Council of Foreign Relations.
I have just started reading your book "Crossing the Rubicon" so I don't know your detailed arguments for the "peak oil" scenarios.
You all probably don't know much about science but you must all realize that the "fossil fuel" theory of the genesis of petroleum violates the laws of thermodynamics.
Hubbert's theory of "peak oil" vitally depends on petroleum being of biogenic origin. Since there is no scientific explanation or experiment to produce biogenic petroleum, "peak oil" is invalid.
Various oil wells are refilling themselves from the bottom up supporting the abiogenic theory. In addition, there is a scientific explanation for the abiogenic origin of petroleum. Read the following:
http://www.gasresources.net/ThrmcCnstrnts.pdf
You all must also realize a common theme to global manipulations of the elite. They are all based on scare tactics which should be a clue for anyone to question their validity.
Hearing from Mike is always like getting an early Christmas present!
In terms of the Gold/Silver markets there are those who believe that the prices will plunge when cash is needed to pay down debts.
Any thoughts?
petroleum a biogenic:
fromthewilderness has discussed the purported existence of abiotic oil at length.
As FTW Admin points out, the abiotic theory has been treated at length. We keep hearing tales about oil fields refilling, but where's the beef? If the theory were true, depleted US fields would be refilling and allow the US to attain its much ballyhooed goal of "energy independence." And there would be no need for the SPR. Last year William Engdahl crossed over to the abiotic camp, claiming that the Russians had figured everything out. If so, why is Russia having trouble maintaining its current production level? They should just tap their abiotic oil and pump like crazy. It would give them a great geopolitical advantage. In truth, Russia's mature field base is the main reason behind its stagnating production. Etc. Etc. Until we see that oil, I am keeping abiotic oil in the same category with alien technology, free energy, and perpetual motion.
FTW admin I realize Michael has covered the topic of abiotic origin of petroleum but very inadequately in my opinion. Of course I'm not an expert on the theory either and I realize the audience and members of FTW are not scientists so that may be the reason those articles posted on FTW were so devoid of scientific details. But the matter is really not settled at all; not even disproven.
That paper I linked to explains why petroleum cannot be a fossil fuel and the explanation is pretty damn good. Non-scientific rebuttals just ain't gonna cut it for refuting it's arguments. In my opinion it's worth looking into while not neglecting to install solar panels and wind powered generators, etc.
Peak oil is just one more elite scare tactic just like global warming-climate change controlled by an oligarchy
http://climatesci.org/2008/07/24/climate-oligarchy/
Petroleum is...
I'm guessing you are not talking about the same article/essay that FTW admin. refered to.
There are actually two articles published at FTW concerning the abiotic oil theory,one of them being a 3 part series.The first part in that series is written by Jean Laherrere,and edited by Dale Allen Pfeiffer.Both are geologists.
In fact in the introduction written by DAP it states "The following paper is a critique of the writings of Thomas Gold, written by Jean Laherrere. It is a scientific dialogue and contains many technical terms and references which may be nearly unfathomable to the layperson."
Upon reading the aforementioned article,I being a layperson have found that statement to be true.
Here I will now provide links to each one so that you can read them for yourself:
No Free Lunch, Part 1:
A Critique of Thomas Gold's Claims for Abiotic Oil by Jean Laherrere edited by Dale Allen Pfeiffer
No Free Lunch, Part 2:If abiotic oil exists, where is it?by Dale Allen Pfeiffer
No Free Lunch, Part 3 of 3: Proof by Ugo Bardi & Dale Allen Pfeiffer
Abiotic Oil: Science or Politics? By Ugo Bardi
Whether oil is abiotic or not, the abiotic groupies make the claim that oil fields are refilling. But that brings us to the question of why no one is pumping those refilling fields. Instead, we are rushing to develop fields in ultra-deep waters and politically unstable areas, and developing "junk oil" (oil sand, shale oil, etc.), which is very expensive and energy-intensive.
The abiotic argument is much like the arguments of those who claim that motor vehicles can run on water, or that the US military has captured UFO technology. Again, where is the beef? If such technology existed, the US military would surely be using it to achieve "full-spectrum dominance" instead of getting its ass kicked by ragtag bands of guerillas in the desert.
Here's an article in which Richard Heinberg has addressed the abiotic oil question.
http://globalpublicmedia.com/richard_heinberg_on_abiotic_oil
Critiquing Thomas Gold's theory of a "hot biophere" doesn't disprove abiotic theory because Gold's theory is inacurrate.
J.F. Kenney is the leading Abiotic Oil geologist in the United States and has the correct theory as originially developed by the Russians.
Continental margin oil has barely been explored, that's the new frontier of oil & gas exploration.
Petrobas has found large fields of oil off the coast of Brazil.
The U.S. is likely to open the outer continental shelf (continental margin) soon.
Petrobas has reported the "lift" cost from its Tupi field as about $8 a barrel. If this cost can be applied to other continental margin oil fields -- that is well within cost parameters for commercial development on a large scale.
Petrobas has ordered 40 of these deepwater, deep-drilling ships at 30 million a rig. 12 billion total investment. These rigs can drill 40,000 feet deep. As deep as 12,000 feet of water and 28,000 feet into the sea floor.
Guess what their drilling for? Abiotic Oil.
How do I know that?
"Fossil" theory has the "oil window" corollary, which has been written about and relied upon at the From the wilderness, states oil can't be found deeper than 15,000 feet deep. Any deeper and the heat "cracks" the oil into methane.
The oil petrobas has found below the continental margin is hot, 500 degrees Fahrenheit, below the salt barrier and deep ranging from 18,000 feet to near 30,000 feet below the sea floor.
This all directly contradicts the "oil window" corollary to "fossil" theory.
Technological advancement has put abiotic oil into play both economically and poltically.
"Peak" oil -- you'll be waitng along time for that.
Post a Comment