This was widely predicted. But corporate mainstream kept it hidden. It can't be hidden now. China is the next-to-last big bubble. It is imploding. The only remaining big bubble is the population bubble. When it's apparent that China is terminally ill, the real die-off will begin. That realization could be in weeks or months. Eight months at the outside.
Fuck, I hate being right.
http://www.businessinsider.com/inside-chinas-tightening-banks-literally-tearing-up-letters-of-credit-importers-in-disarray-orders-cancelled-2010-1
I haven't widely shared this: At the first DC Q&A, as I was signing books, a gentleman introduced himself and his wife. He said that he was a senior economist at the IMF. And then he said that I was the best economist he had ever seen.
How much more confirmation could anybody want? -- We do this for those who will be left behind.
MCR
*******************************************************************************
From Jenna Orkin
China
U.S. groups say "alarmed" by China's business tactics
'Unprecedented' Bubble in China
US Oil Industry Hit By Cyberattacks: Was China Involved? (from Dave Crossland)
Is Bill Gates backing China?
China Inc.'s global growing pains
Everyone's Talking About China
War/Intelligence
Two Koreas trade fire, spooks markets
N. Korea says shelling was drill
US not ready for biological terror attack, report warns
London meeting marks sea-change in Afghan approach
Qaeda-linked militants claim Iraq hotel bombings
Iran official: German diplomats involved in "riots"
U.S. deeply involved in Yemen strikes
Afghanistan conference 'will raise millions to pay Taliban'
NATO Envisions Many More Years in Afghanistan
US Navy Establishes Cyber Force
Pentagon Report Calls for Office of 'Strategic Deception'
Robo Weather Patrol: NASA's UAVs Spy on Climate Patterns
Economy
S&P 500 Is on 'Precipice,' May Extend Drop From Peak: Technical Analysis
Roubini: Asset Bubble Is Beginning Now
U.S. Federal Deficit to hit $1.35 Trillion
A trillion dollar challenge
Analysts: "There is a breaking point"
New Home Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline in Sign Tax Incentive Waning
FDIC Friday Lotto: Another Reason Why Banks Are Not Lending
Obama's Preposterous "Partial Spending Freeze"; Lessons of 1937
39.1 Million Below Poverty Line - Brookings
The sanctity of military spending (from Vantage Point)
Sunset Strip gets $1 million
Poll: Most say stimulus wasted
World Economic Forum Chief Security Officer Dies in Probable Suicide (from Nihil Matters)
Right-Wing Airline Magnate Wins Presidential Race (Chile)
Ethanol producer used “slave labor”(Brazil)
Record number of young Americans jobless
Why the Wal-Mart Version of Retail Is Unsustainable (from Rice Farmer)
Verizon to cut 13,000 jobs
Oregon's Death Spiral; Business Owners Say "I'm moving out"
UK/Guatemala
Why Britain's recovery will be a marathon
Top financier: UK is 'a must to avoid'
Britain at risk of plunging back into recession Bank of England backs US reforms
Endorsement is in contrast to stance of government, which has refused to adopt Obama's measures
Guatemalan ex-president arrested
Environment
Water: A human right under threat
World's glaciers continue to melt at historic rates
History/Film
Oliver Stone: Bankers Helped Hitler
And...
More Bombshells in Underwear
RE: Oregon's Death Spiral
ReplyDeleteMish hates unions. He's a capitalist, and that's understandable. But the state is having trouble paying teachers. Rich people are the only ones with any money. Duh.
I know it hurts to have the needy world come to you, in your own hour of crisis, and make you carry the load. But if we follow Mish's logic, we'll get rid of pensions, cut wages in half, and everyone will have a chance to eke out a happy meal a day by assembling computers in a profitable factory or selling track shoes in a department store. But who would buy the computers and the shoes? The whole second half of the 20th century was based on exponential growth of production, wages, infrastructure and thus more jobs, more production, more wages, etc. -and baby, that aint goin on no more.
Start cutting at any end... the show's over. The good wages already went to China and became bowls of rice. In order to keep taking the accusomed profit, big businesses slash salaries in Oregon. Soon, the workers cannot buy from anyone, big or small, and local businesses suffer. The small and medium businesses want to cut costs by cutting wages, but that results in further impoverished workers who can buy ever less. Etc.,
Right now, we have a need for social services, some kind of police, and schools that operate five days a week with the lights on and everything. If it's true, that all the businesses are going to Washington, where they won't be taxed as highly, then the workers have a choice: move to Washington (or Shanghai), or else get out of wage slavery altogether and start planting food, cooperating in local markets and barter and maybe some local currency. And sharing what we have. We're gonna have to do that anyway, and if some of the capitalists relocate, so be it.
Sure, there will be fewer "jobs", but then the people who don't move to Washington might have to organize a different kind of society, and at least they'll have some social services and some schools while making the transition.
As a native Oregonian, I watched capitalism ravage the forests, cover my state with highways and tacky houses, coat it in plastic businesses with crappy jobs and traffic jams and invite a bunch of other dupes into the state to buy the new suburban houses and the new cars and work in the dumb office buildings and buy their barbeque sets and office wear in the department stores (and later the Walmarts, which is the real reason Meyer & Frank closed) and then to pile it all in landfills. I saw Alcoa come in with a few "jobs" and pay a few "taxes" and force Oregon to build Trojan Nuclear Power Plant so they could cover the West in soda cans. The jobs and the taxes are both gone, but a decommissioned nuke plant remains.
Mish gets a lot of stuff right, but when he wants to keep civilization going by nipping at the wages of the poor, or by closing Oregon's schools, I can see that the man is obviously well down the wrong road.
Eyeballs, you rock. That's why we work so hard to work through and glean what we can from everywhere. Like all the regular sources we use here, along with all the rest, they help us add detail to our map.
ReplyDeleteThere are few with the eyeballs (or any other kind) willing or able to see the picture whole.
This blog is such a wonderful resource for all of us.
And Jenna is just amazing.
MCR
I've said it before, I'll say it again: this blog's biggest weakness is its ignorance regarding sound economics.
ReplyDeleteEyeballs, you have a perverted understanding of what capitalism is - although I would agree with the majority of your post if you substituted "corporatism" for capitalism.
Capitalism is about the accumulation of capital, sound money, and job creation. If I understood your post correctly you're calling for more social services - which have their roots in government. Government produces nothing of value and is a net drain on the economy...so in a sense you are calling for more of the drug that decreased your livelihood in the first place. Jobs go overseas for two primary reasons: cheaper labor and less regulation. Eliminate both in the United States and you'll see jobs return.
What's more, as Bastiat (and later Henry Hazlitt) cautioned, is you are ignoring the unseen consequences of your prescriptions for economic recovery. You erroneously assume jobs will leave, people will be mired in poverty, and somehow prices increase or stay the same. That flies in the face of economics 101. It'd do you a world of good to read "Economics in One Lesson" to understand what I'm getting at, but your fundamentals are exactly wrong. Misguided anger and paranoia is an absolute non-starter, as I'm sure many in the FTW community would agree.
Full disclosure: I'm not a huge fan of Mish, but is prognosis for the economy is much more accurate than your call for increased social services. Not every bad thing that happens in the world is the fault of capitalism - it's the fault of government and a flawed monetary system.
Why are even FTW readers looking to create a system inside the current synthetic cargo culture? Depending on a handout or a job from a non renewable synthetic system is futile. One should want to think that they just arrived onto a baron landscape full of people, and to create lifeboats is the only escape.
ReplyDeleteHow can Environmental News Networks keep this reality from the people? These green washing agencies are as religious to the market transformation as humanity uses technology to escape from the realities of the diminishing natural world. People are in denial.
"We do what we do for those who we leave behind?" Well, who is leaving? Who will have the courage or a network of people to migrate to lifeboats? The day I see humans moving to eco villages set up under a Corporation Sole, then I will know the journey has begun and there are people actually leaving the rest behind.
Sorry to disagree but I'm not at all convinced about China imploding, there are some problems no doubt, but my idea is that they are hugely exaggerated by the American-British media, just like the story that Greece's problems would affect the whole EU, just to hide that the biggest problems are right in the US + Britain.
ReplyDeleteWe need to begin farms and start not just growing food but food forests, for phosphorous for nutrient density flows, so that the run off becomes fertilizer for your food. While water is harvested and reused again and again through multiple sustainable systems, like a solar hot water spa, then to a fish tank to a garden. That is just part of the plan for the great shift to survival. That is the only plan for the future. Until we can orchestrate a food foresting community,any plan has not yet even started.
ReplyDeleteDeath Ground...it approaches. Or we approach it. Stomp your feet through those flimsy boats that brought you to the opposite shore of the river and onto the territory (with map in hand). Smash those pots and cooking utensils. No use for them now. Feed off the enemy or...
ReplyDeleteMy friend worked for Verizon for 14 years and just took a severance package. Was about to buy a house too! Not many jobs are safe these days. I work in the hotel business and where we haven't just outright let people go, they hire someone else to do the same job for half the pay.
ReplyDeleteeyeballs, sorry to hear - I spent one of my best years in portland, renovating houses for californian lawyers who sold up and moved on portlands cheap housing in early 90's. if there was anywhere other than australia that i could call home, it would be oregon. anywhere that has the sense of humour to call a town "eugene" gets my vote anytime.
ReplyDeleteand now that china has started to burst, we might finally start to feel some real pain in oz, and quit patting ourselves on the back for "missing" the global recession.
Science H. Logic help me, I just can’t resist the urge,... I am compelled to offer an opposing view.
ReplyDeleteLet it not be said that all people who view this blog are a bunch of sniveling socialist cowards. Listening to you guys, I can't decide whether to laugh or vomit.
Your moral premise is corrupt and evil! An idiot's, cripple's, or baby farm's needs do not place claims on my ability or property! The "public welfare" be DAMNED! "Social programs" are a leech on the aorta of productive and free people! Punish the productive and reward the unproductive? What sort of horrifically deranged morality do you two follow?
Also Laissez-faire capitalism didn't ruin Oregon and this nation, for lack of a better word, Corporatism did! When you have a government that is allowed power to act in the marketplace, corporations have huge interest in who is elected into that government. We haven’t had Capitalism in America for a very long time, we have had an economy controlled by a government who's list of effective constituents come from the Fortune 500, not a census.
Eyeballs you do NOT rock!
I fart in your general direction!
Yes, MCR is one of the best economists around. (He could teach Mish a thing or two.) We must thank him for shouting what no one else has the guts to even whisper: The whole system is a Ponzi scheme. The debt economy, pension programs, what have you, all pumped up by more and more debt (oops, I mean "credit"). Yet, unlike small potatoes Bernie Madoff, the perpetrators will never be brought to justice, and the rest of us will suffer the consequences.
ReplyDeleteHi Gang! I've missed reading the blog for a few days, but I do have a good excuse. I was sent to Haiti on the 23rd, and have been learning first-hand about disaster response. If you'd like to see a non-mainstream glimpse of the situation here, feel free to browse my flickr photos at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/dalexfilms/sets/
ReplyDeleteNo special analysis, but nothing dictated from editors or bosses, either... Hope to catch up on proceedings here in a week or two. Until then, best to all!
Interesting tidbit from way down south in Tasmania. Several days ago Herman Rockerfeller vanished.(yes, on of those Rockerfeller's, property investments and all that) Left the Melbourne airport, picked up his Prius at the long term car park and did not go home. His car has been found in the country, some sightings have been made now and the story has gone a bit quiet.
ReplyDeleteThat aside, a truly great site. It has been most comforting to know others were reaching the same conclusions I had arrived at, and even more comforting when I found I had chosen an area to live where I was surrounded by people who thought my take on the state of world affairs was accurate, and are actively working to prepare for what happens next, whatever it is. Anytime you want a holiday Mike, you are welcome here.
TO RanD, and Agape, many years ago I was involved in a group called "The Emin". They were all about what you are getting at, and much, much more. It was that knowledge that has led me to look for the space I am now in, and to recognise the truths that MCR has so well detailed. However, in support of some who find your writing a bit of a stretch at this moment in time there is a saying which may be pertinant: When you are up to your arse in crocodiles, it is difficult to focus on draining the swamp. I suggest that right now, surviving the crocs is more important than looking for the plughole. There will be ample time for that when the madness runs its course, as long as no-one chooses to send us all to hell in the meantime with nukes or nanobots or whatever stupid weapon they have conjured up. Sadly I dont see those with that ability paying much attention ton your message, regardless of how many others you may convince.
RE: Capitalism vs. Corporatism
ReplyDeleteIn theory the two are distinct, but the huge momentum of capital has always been in the direction of accumulation to the few, and now we are at the climax of that trend. I tend to think it was inevitable. But anyway, we have what we have.
As to social services, think defensively. Of course it's infantalizing the society to make folks dependent on handouts. But the alternative is to have millions of unhealthy, uneducated, poorly regulated people desperate for food, wandering - angry and confused - through your environment. Again, theory breaks down in the face of reality. At this point, a couple more years of (ever failing) government provisions will be absolutely vital to avoid Hobbesian-style anarchy.
I don't recommend wasting much time trying to influence government, anyway (too late, and we have other vital work to do), but it's especially disingenuous to urge the abandonment of the poor at this point.
For the lifeboat:-
ReplyDeletePurchasing Chia seeds might be a good investment, if they are all they are cracked up to be.
They can be stored (apparently) for years without deteriorating or becoming rancid. Anyone know, with a degree of first hand knowledge, anything about these seeds?
I am constantly bemused at the level of vitriol heaped on the idea of socialism, that I read on various USA sites. Socialism, as interpreted in many countries around the world, is a means whereby the wealth of the country is more equitably shared amongst that countrys' people.
SOCIALISM IS NOT COMMUNISM
regardless of what the media and TPTB constantly tell you.
They would have you believe that greed is good, and to consume consume consume, and where has that got you!!
There will always be those people who live off the backs of others and use their power and lack of ethics to get to the top of the heap. They need regulating.
We will see MCR, we will see. The only peace I have, is no fear of death.
ReplyDeleteRiceFarmer, MCR, Eyeballs:
ReplyDeleteYour collective display of ignorance regarding economics in general, especially the distinction between economics and government truly speaks for itself. At the very least one would only need to read Ayn Rand's philosophic treatise: Atlas Shrugged, or perhaps read some of the work of the Ludwig von Mises Institute to expose the errors in your reasoning.
Or perhaps my logic is the one that is flawed, and people should in fact be forced to surrender their rightfully earned wealth to those who have earned nothing but the guilt of the ignorant. If so, please enlighten me.
Just like the frogs being brought slowly to the boil in a saucepan, it doesn't really matter what flavour the water is.
ReplyDeleteSocial security/welfare or "jobs for all" legalised slavery - are like adding food colouring to make the water look better, but the water is still going to boil.
Food forests make a good lifeboat, the earlier they are planted, the more people can fit in.
We need more lifeboats Captain!
Here's a good link for the new paradigm Afrigadget.com
Mike, I love you, The biggest question I can our so called intelligent society be so blinding walking off the cliff.
ReplyDeleteYou must feel so alone and alienated from the world. You must think we are all dumb fucks.
The problems is we are all so convuluded , so drunk , a drunk never realises their out of drink till they sober up. When we started to sober up we will realise how easy life was
Eyeballs, I couldn't disagree more. A Hobbesian free-for-all is more closely aligned with a tyrannical regime (such as what we have in the US) than it is with free market economies. I just don't see it. Do you have an example?
ReplyDeleteFor an example of how markets produce goods for the masses, look no further than the computer industry. Or the market for shoes. Neither industry is heavily regulated - if regulated at all - by government. Yet everyone who wants a computer and/or shoes has access to one. Moreover, prices tend to fall over time, an made all the more remarkable when you consider how the purchasing power of our currency has plummeted over the same span!
HIGHLY recommend you read Hazlitt's "Economics in One Lesson." I suspect we agree on much more than either of us realize - I just think your anger is directed at the wrong people :)
Peace.
Capitalism, Socialism, and Communism are terms that need to be thrown out. They do nothing to help the present discussion (i.e. survival). They are all dead, dying dinosaurs and all of them start with the assumption of infinite resources.
ReplyDeleteI think I said something like that in the movie.
I would hate to seee the wonderful energy of this blog focused on arguments that -- if won -- would do nothing to solve the problem, or lives.
"Yea! I won the argument about what capitalism, socialism and corporatism really are. Now let's save some lives... Oops! Too late."
MCR
The problem with any form of government or operating system for society...be it capitalism, socialism, communism, etc., is that those who crave power and greed the most will always find a way to exercise their own direct control, exploit the system, and get what they want for their own benefit at the total expense of everyone else.
ReplyDeleteWhat most people call capitalism today isn't really capitalism, and when you have so many people who want to rig the system for their own benefit, and a government that evolves in a way that totally enables it to happen, it's not an easy problem to stop.
No matter what checks and balances we put in place, as long as we have people whose greed, longing for power, and corruption is strong enough, they'll find a way over time to completely rig the system for the benefit of themselves.
Winning or losing the argument re: terminology is an exercise in futility; however, the borderline fatalistic mentality of some contributors here is in dire need of some distinction between competing philosophies of government.
ReplyDeleteCapitalism does NOT start from the assumption of infinite resources. Where in the world does one get such an idea? Capitalism is all about distributing resources according to who needs them most, which should mesh nicely every cause known to man. Further, resources are distributed precisely because they are limited in quantity...and it is scarcity that drives markets. This is economics 101! It irks me to see so many people blinded by their own anger.
Capitalism is the ONLY discipline that enables survival and therefore should be defended tooth and nail by the folks on this blog. Sadly that is not the case, which is FTW's biggest weakness. We owe our free time, luxuries, hobbies - indeed, our lives - to the cause of capitalism. How else can you explain the earth's ability to support 6 billion people?
Capitalism is a dying dinosaur only to those who misunderstand its principles. If yjavascript:void(0)ou want to save lives, push for free markets.
Brother and Sister Activists,
ReplyDeleteThis is a very important piece of news, please give it your complete attention. For years I have been watching, very closely the movement of money, politics and science that has constructed our worst nightmare since the atomic bomb.
Geo-Engineering (GE) is the artificial modification of Earth’s climate systems. Industrial sized GE projects range from DECLASSIFIED experimentation like ocean iron fertilization, to HIGHLY CLASSIFIED dangerous experimentation like AEROSOL SPRAYING (chemical spraying).
For over a decade, the main stream media has ignored GE, while the U.S. military has feverishly deployed a wide range of GE advanced weapons technology (not JUST weather modification). Geo-engineering scientists met in Copenhagen, in September, whereas at the Copenhagen Summit, GE talk was limited to the numerous instances when political talking heads referred to the “many technological fixes” that were available to fight climate change.
There are TWO parts to this nightmare, and if you don’t accept the first, MAKE SURE YOU READ THE SECOND.
ONE- The DEPLOYMENT of DANGEROUS GE is ALREADY YEARS UNDERWAY
Here are the facts:
Extremely high quantities of aluminum, barium, strontium, and other metals and chemicals are showing up in rainwater, surface water and air. In just the last four years, citizens in the Pacific Northwest (Northern CA, Oregon) have taken dozens of tests where the levels of aluminum, for example, has escalated hundreds of times from the first tests, which were already unusually high. Some tests of single rain events had elevated nearly 50,000% from the original 7ppb. These tests correspond with the state of California’s own test results as discovered and published by Rosalind Peterson of California Skywatch(californiaskywatch.com). Rosalind, formerly with the USDA, has fought tirelessly for years to expose GE Aerosol Spraying experimentation.
This data matches data from other citizen and environmental groups testing nationwide as well as Europe. Dangerous levels of aluminum, barium and other contaminants have saturated most surface waters in much of the US and all NATO countries. The metals found exactly match the primary elements listed in a host of “geo-engineering patents” (website: geoengineeringwatch.org).
Patents (assigned to Hughes Aircraft, DOD, Raytheon, and others) describe the specific goal of creating artificial cloud cover (reflecting, therefore cooling), and other forms of weather/ climate modification.
The California Air Quality Resources Board has studied aerosols migrating from China and these rainwater and air metals (matching the patents) are not present in rain or air approaching our continent. The contamination begins on-shore, though clearly just off-shore as well.
Recent soil testing and analysis reveals that soil PH’s are now changing tremendously. A number of studies state conclusively that bio-available aluminum is highly detrimental to countless organisms, including conifers. In the last four years, large and mature Sierra Nevada firs have died or begun dying by the stands, even in riparian areas where they never lack water. In the same four years (California), alarming declines in amphibians have also been observed. Aluminum drives PH towards base (alkaline), also severely affecting the forests.
Gamedog -
ReplyDeleteNice one on the gas-powered bicycles. Note that the weather there is pretty clement. Here in Taiwan, we have a lot of new electric bicycles. You can pedal or just ride, so the range is greater if you're feeling athletic. Also, you can get home if your charge runs out... it'll just take a lot longer than you hoped.
Eddie Willers -
I must agree with MCR - old models just don't make it. I'm not thinking of what model is the all-time best, but what will get us through the frightening transition ahead. We just can't have zombies with no place to go, if we can by any means provide for their basic needs and educate them at the same time. It goes without saying that some dumb people and some evil people will benefit, but the same is true in any system.
The whole show's over, we're running on fumes. There is not over-arching system that "we can adopt" to save us. Forces at work have their momentum, and some cannot be stopped.
When we have a choice: feed the hungry or shut them out, or force them into abject slavery because they didn't play the game successfully and we did ... the answer is to feed them if possible. Ethical argumens aside for the moment, it is practical good sense to maintain hygene, some roads, a bit (though not tooooo much) of police protection, a fire department that really works, and schools, clinics, access to AIDS testing and many other services. Only the relatively well-to-do can afford to subsidize these services, and IT IS IN THE INTEREST OF THE RICH TO TAKE CARE OF THE POOR.
Or else kill 'em and be done with it.
Frustrated, Citizens submitting these tests, have been ignored by government officials and mainstream media. Put these keywords into your search engine: test air water aluminum barium
ReplyDeleteTWO- OUR “LEADERS” HAVE GREEN-LIGHTED THE SCIENTISTS and AEROSOL EXPERIMENTATION and FULL SCALE DEPLOYMENT is CERTAIN
Finally, for better or worse, the media has focused on the idea of “last resort” and geo-engineering. The New York Times, LA . Times, National Geographic, MSNBC and a multitude of others (see our web site) have all recently run articles / news on the science and the controversy. The mainstream PR blitz peaked during COP5.
The reason for big-media’s newfound interest in GE is clear. World governments, led by the United States, have agreed to begin full-scale experimentation. It is imperative that this plan becomes visible to everyone in every nation. The enormous risk and uncertainty, expressed by many of the GE scientists themselves, sounds THE alarm in all who are paying attention. Activists, labor, students...everyone, should feel a call to stand up during this moment in history. It is time to take decisive action:
Geo-Engineering scientists from all over the world will be meeting in San Diego, at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting from February 18-22, 2010. One presentation entitled “Can Geoengineering Save Us from Global Warming?” will be taking place on Saturday February 20th from 8:30am until 11:30 am in room 6F at the San Diego Convention Center.
We must show a strong signal of discontent thru protest, to the scientists, politicians and corporations seeking to further their dangerous experimentation on the planet. There will be a protest and press conference at the closest public property, within feet of the AAAS meeting. The strategy and logistics are now forming and your input is welcome. Vital protest information is posted at geoengineeringwatch dot org.
Continuing Geo-Engineering news will be on our site as well. Our team is working PR and we welcome your help there as well. Organizations and persons wishing to help with planning for this action please contact us immediately.
We are keeping it simple. Unite, gather and show a PEACEFUL REJECTION of this insane contamination of our world, forced, non-consented experimentation upon us, and any secrecy or use of geo-engineering as a weapon.
Please consider the gravity of this matter and forward this action invitation to other groups, student organizations, unions etc.
These scientists have already declared that controlling the atmosphere is necessary as a “back-up” plan if governments and the private sector cannot reduce green-house gas emissions. We must hold our ground and declare they neither have the right nor the knowledge to tamper with the very foundation of our existence without the consent of an educated public.
Mauro Oliveira
geoengineeringwatch dot org
A project of SOL Communications Inc
admin@geoengineeringwatch.org
530 356-7343
I said preview but google said publish. I have things to say though.
ReplyDeleteSorry about that.
Eddie Willers, inside the loop you are what is known as a “cornucopian apologist.” The MSM is littered with such arguments on how the human spirit blah blah blah will overcome the energy crisis. The economic premises, and the blind spots, are always the same.
ReplyDeleteEnergy = the ability to do work = the creation of value/wealth (and surplus value) = currency circulating in a given community. If the foundation of energy is removed from this equation, then everything else collapses. Gee, just like in the movie! Who has bids on the surplus value, the private entrepreneur/company or the state, becomes somewhat moot. All this is in keeping with maintaining and “growing” a mass industrialized society. Those days are toast.
As much as I can appreciate eyeballs’ concerns for retaining some semblance of a social safety net, my only question is from where is the surplus value to do so going to be squeezed, especially in the amounts that will be required for the degree of social displacement that looms? And again, this reflects directly back on scale, i.e. urban/mass vs rural. The need to re-localize has been covered in this blog. If you have missed it, you may wish to dig up some of those threads.
The collateral of a cheap and abundant energy source to re-kickstart is no more. In re-localized polities what will matter are the skills that one has to trade, either directly, via a local currency, or with clam shells if need be. Farmers, small engine repair, and hard skills of any nature will carry premiums; financial analysts, economists, workshop facilitators on how to connect with one’s inner child, minstrels, and court jesters will not. Who will control the land, and the arms to protect it, will rule while the cities are left to burn and decay. In this blog we discuss the collapse of industrial civilization. We discuss the entry onto post-industrial feudalism.
MCR’s cheerleading on saving lives can go over the top at times. Many will die, a few will not. Post-Peak Oil philosophy is not for those who need to find a way out. It is for those who must find a way out.
It still amazes me when I read this blog that so-called "hearers" still think in the old paradigm. The rich will be unable to feed the poor because their wealth is based upon the old paradigm which must exit the stage soon. History has only taught that if we give government too much power in a crisis they waste time, resources, and money and are inevitably responsible for even more death and suffering. Leave it to the people. We aren't going to be able to stop mass exodus of life from this planet anyway. The government has already assured of that event in the near future.
ReplyDeletere Eddie Willers “Capitalism is all about distributing resources according to who needs them most…”
ReplyDeleteer, sorry, that sounds like Socialism to me - or did I miss something?
But I’m with MCR on this - all the ‘isms’ are irrelevant now, except maybe Feudalism, which may well make a come-back.
All the ‘isms’ are mechanisms which determine who stays in power and how they decide who gets access to which resources. However, the elites have staged a coup and they have a firm grip on both power and resources, so the ‘isms’ are irrelevant - they will use whichever system helps them to achieve their goals. Whichever party is in power, the Elites still get to control the game.
TPTB have had plenty of time to plan for collapse, and I am sure that their Plan A ensures that they will remain TPTB, in control of the important resources, and with us - the surfs - receiving the crumbs from their table.
The only other alternative I can see (IMO) is that collapse happens in such a way that TPTB cannot control it - anarchy prevails - and out of the dust, small localised “economies”/communities appear.
However, TPTB have a major trump card up their sleeves. If they feel they are losing control, they can press the button, and no-one wins. They were very willing - even eager - to do so in the cold-war.
I have now depressed myself……
Namaste
Paul,
ReplyDeleteLove the way you spell "surfs". Beats the hell outta whackin clods with primitive implements. I think there's hope after all!
eyeballs
ReplyDeleteLOL
best english grammar school edukation too!
cheers mate!
Sebastian, the equation you cite is simply not true. If what you say is true, people would never have existed without oil. If what you're really saying is society cannot be as sophisticated as we know it today without oil, I'd still disagree with you.
ReplyDeleteYour kind of thinking is akin to believing that man was never meant to fly, that oceans are too vast to cross, and that all the books in the world could never be accessed from a desktop computer. How ironic that such thoughts are posted on an Internet message board!
Point is, mankind is resilient. We are toolmakers. We adapt. There are geniuses among us who require but one thing to unleash their creative capacities: freedom. We non-geniuses can perform an equally important role by supporting the market economy through the international division of labor. Working to eliminate the coercive forces of government is another vital task.
Reading your comment(s) has me almost convinced that oil has taken on the form of a deity in your life - it plays such an important role that you're willing to retreat from the whole of society in an effort to prepare yourself for what you deem to be the inevitable demise of mankind. Are you willing to go that far just to be able to say, 'I told you so!'?
And what if you're wrong?
I disagree with Sebastian Ronin, Eyeballs, and Paul, but I'll leave the discussion here because I've diverted from MCR's message. This is his blog, and I thank Jenna for publishing my comments.
Eddie, should you happen to come back and pay a visit to this thread, contrary to your claim:
ReplyDeleteRe "If what you say is true, people would never have existed without oil."
Well, yes, they did exist prior to the fossil fuel age (don't forget coal). But to a degree, they existed in a harmony/balance with the natural world. And yes, war and famine are part of that world. The socio-cultural cybernetic feedback loop performed its job rather well. Industrial Age = positive feedback on steroids, 95% of it fueled by oil. The "sophistication" was the property of other means of survival and not solely the property of a runaway technological determinism.
Re "Point is, mankind is resilient. We are toolmakers. We adapt."
Yep, but it will be on a much reduced scale of technology and social interaction. Nowhere have I ever said that we will not adapt. I am a strong believer in the principle of "Adapt or perish." It's just that it will be much less fewer of us doing the adapting.
No, oil has not taken on the role of a deity in my life. You have things reversed. I see it for what it is: the oxygen of industrial civilization. It is this civilization, i.e. its citizens, who see oil as a deity. Savinar makes this point quite clearly in "Crude Awakening."
I have "retreated" from society to a rural lifestyle (and encourage others to do so) because that is the name of the game. Where have you been? Retreat should not be confused with surrender; it is a tactical necessity. Large cities are death traps. Being able to say "I told you so" has nothing to do with it. I really don't give a rat's ass how many people do or don't take the necessary steps. It's all in the numbers anyway: statistically we know that most will not, they will hang around waiting for some magic bullet, some techno Jeebus to drop out of the sky and make everything okay, or any other of several grand delusions. We have a feast of consequences laid out before us; and now we get to gorge our vain bellies.
A cleansing this way comes. History is not linear, it is cyclical. The die-off will make the Black Death seem like a nose bleed in comparison. Liberals always want things to be nice, pain-free, egalitarian, etc. with a scoop of Hollywood, fairytale ending on top. Well, it's not going to be nice; far from it. As adult to adult, possibly you can hear this: It is going to be fucking brutal! Look to Haiti, minus the bailout and spoon-feeding from the Western countries.
You can wish in one hand and shit in the other and wait to see which piles up first. Your call.
North American Renaissance Party
Sebastian,
ReplyDeleteLove the enthusiasm, disagree with the prognosis. Nevertheless, I'll continue reading your comments - I can always use a good calibration!
"I disagree with Sebastian Ronin, Eyeballs, and Paul, but I'll leave the discussion here because I've diverted from MCR's message."
ReplyDeleteYou blinked. Scratch one up for me.
=;-{D