I won't have much to say after this. We have to see how things go now.

One other possibility exists: This is another Afghanistan 1979 and theU.S. provoked the attack. There are several reasons why I don't think this likely:

1. The place has much shorter lines of communication and supply.
2. Russians are ethnically dominant.
3. U.S. military is stretched to the limit now. WashPost says US military option not off the table. But with what?
4. I also don't think it likely that Washington is planning a Contra orMujahedeen-style war. There isn't that much time and see Reason 2. Central America and Afghanistan were not home turf. It's a whole different thing to run an insurgency in Russia's backyard. Ask the Chechens.
5. This just looks a lot more like Grenada than Afghanistan.

-- MCR

LATER: Markets reacting slower than expected. Just breaking: Russian troops have occupied a town near the capital (Gori) which signals possible attempt to occupy Tblisi. That would put a whole new level on things. CNN is just reacting now. This is far from over and I still like my analysis. I'll be silent today to see how things develop. We're stillwaiting on Russians to demonstrate full intent. Their military deployment still suggests a wider, longer-term agenda than an In-and-Out. I don't think that has sunk in yet.Just now CNN anchors started saying, "Oh boy... this is getting worse."Oil markets might be cleaning out shorts to reposition. This is still developing