With the arrival of Peak Oil, the curtain has closed on Act 1 of the drama Petroleum Man. What will happen in Act 2? Chekhov said, "If there's a gun on the wall at the beginning of the play, by the end it must go off." In the world's nuclear arsenal are many guns on the wall. If life copies art, will there be an Act 3 in which the players, having learned their lesson the hard way, live sustainably? To explore these and other questions... FTW's Act 2 Blog. Read, comment, take heart! Orkin
Mexico, Jul 27 (Prensa Latina) Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years.
"Supplies of this economically exploitable resource are running out," informed a report sent by the state owned company to the United States stock market.
Until December 31, 2005 the report says proven reserves were about 8.978 billion barrels, while yearly production was 1.322 billion tons. If this rhythm continues oil will run out in the time stipulated.
Even if heavy investments were made now, new oil fields would take from six to eight years to be ready and, consequently, Mexico may have to import oil to satisfy the internal market, it warned.
I bet a lot of people who visit this site know the story behind Cantarell. Is it really going to take $100 oil for people to understand Peak Oil? I'm afraid the answer is yes.
"The only way to compensate for the weaker dollar is a higher oil price," says Shokri Ghanem, head of Libya's state-run National Oil Co, Africa's largest holder of oil reserves.
At the same time the price of crude has more than tripled, spurred by rising demand, a dearth in global refining capacity and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, Nigeria and Venezuela.
This gives OPEC's Middle East giants like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait little incentive to take action to rein in oil prices as they strive to boost investment and diversify their economies.
Such is the concern about the limp U.S. dollar that central bankers in the wealthy Arab Gulf states are now moving to reduce their exposure to the currency.
Very likely what we will soon see in Mexico is the "net export crisis." After oil production falls to a certain point, Mexico will have no choice but to stop exports and keep all its production at home to prop up the domestic economy for a little longer.
Haven't found anything in English on this, but a big story in Japan today is the announcement by the chairman of Gazprom that Russia will give priority to Russian consumers in supplying natural gas from the Sakhalin-1 project. He remarked on the possibility that some of the gas would be exported to Asian countries. Remember that Japan (including the government) has something like a 30% stake in this project. And since the talks with China over the marine gas fields between the two countries are going nowhere fast, this is a shocker for Japan.
China too is counting on gas from Sakhalin-1. Further, the Altai gas pipeline project to China might be postponed. Russia is really putting the skids on energy exports.
It will be interesting to see the results of today's parliamentary elections here in Japan. Although the ruling party could be hurt by the pension scandal, I don't expect a big loss of seats for them. PM Abe has said that he will continue on as PM no matter what the outcome, and that means the onward march toward militarization and partnering with the US in oil wars.
The REAL News. Based in Toronto with a cadre of top notch journalists around the globe and headed up by CBC veteran journalist and film producer, Paul Jay, they promise unbiased in depth reporting on the real issues with a specific promise to address climate change.
Real News is member supported and takes no government or corporate money and sells no advertising in order to maintain journalistic integrity.
They have a beta site up and some very impressive video stories and interviews. 2008 will be the launch for 24/7 reporting on the web and an hour long daily news TV show and plan thorough coverage of the US 2008 election campaigns.
They welcome viewer participation and feedback so please check them out, register, and email them about covering PEAK OIL.
If you have a blog, you might mention them. I have their intro video on my blog, as does Isis.
REAL News -- I already asked them to cover peak oil. That was two or three weeks ago.
Energy shortage hampers development in Africa http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/29/news/africa.php
Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (which is certainly not liberal) did take a drubbing in the election, but true to his word, PM Abe has vowed to stay at the helm.
rice farmer said "REAL News -- I already asked them to cover peak oil. That was two or three weeks ago."
Good for you. I hope others will do the same. They are not doing daily stories yet, and won't until perhaps the end of the year. If enough people raise the issue perhaps they'll cover it. Other North American media sure as hell won't.
"The Liberal Democratic Party's huge loss in Sunday's election has for the time being dashed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's dream of amending the Constitution.
Abe and the LDP had hoped to amend the Constitution to allow Japan to exercise its right for collective self-defense and enable the Self-Defense Forces to take part in overseas military operations."
Ah yes, the amendment. I'm glad Pandabondium brought that up! Abe wants to eliminate the Article 9 restriction on military activity. My guess is that this is part of the effort to clear the way for Japan to partner with the US in oil wars. Japan's near-total dependence on oil imports means that even a slight disruption could cripple the economy. As oil availability decreases, countries which can't produce their own will have to take it by force. Surely this is not lost on the LDP leadership. Although this election loss is a setback, they won't give up, and I expect the J gvt will continue to play up the "North Korean threat."
"Global warming. So what? Melting polar icecaps? Call me later. A Crude Awakening paints a picture so much grimmer than anything Americans have seen in their lifetimes. Or in the movies this summer, for that matter. It is dark. It is primordial. It is terrifying. It is - The end of oil, as we know it.
Now that, my friends, is an inconvenient truth. It is a truth so scary, so inconvenient, that few will even utter its name. Once again, for the record, its name is Peak Oil. And no one seems to have the slightest idea what to do about it."
Personally I'll be emailing John Amato and thanking him for featuring this important documentary.
The Raw Story - New Homeland Security (sic) regs require airlines to collect more personal info on passengers which will be shared with the USA and EU (and later other countries, they hope). Info now includes - racial/ethnic info; political opinions; religious/philosophical beliefs; union membership; health; traveling partners; sexual orientation. The data will be kept in their files for FIFTEEN YEARS.
I am reminded of the last line from Bob Dylan's song On the Road Again:
"Then you ask why I don't live here, honey, how come you don't move?"
Current oil prices are inflated by around $7 per barrel because of concerns about supply security, OPEC's Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri was reported as saying in a newspaper interview on Monday.
"I presume that prices are currently around $7 per barrel above the real market value," Badri was quoted as saying when asked how much supply concerns were pushing up prices in an interview with Austrian newspaper WirtschaftsBlatt.
He said OPEC did not plan to reintroduce an official price band for oil, but added: "I believe I can say that we feel comfortable if the oil price doesn't fall below $50. A price above $80 wouldn't please us either."
-----
$80 oil lurks
Growing demand, tight supplies, turbulent geopolitics, hurricane season - a witches brew for crude prices.
Mexican Company (PEMEX) Predicts End of Oil
ReplyDeletehttp://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7BF1F8B8FE-DA99-4717-8FBD-2B3C4F90FBA3%7D%29&language=EN
Mexico, Jul 27 (Prensa Latina) Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years.
"Supplies of this economically exploitable resource are running out," informed a report sent by the state owned company to the United States stock market.
Until December 31, 2005 the report says proven reserves were about 8.978 billion barrels, while yearly production was 1.322 billion tons. If this rhythm continues oil will run out in the time stipulated.
Even if heavy investments were made now, new oil fields would take from six to eight years to be ready and, consequently, Mexico may have to import oil to satisfy the internal market, it warned.
Tyler, wow, that's quite an article.
ReplyDeleteThanks gaelicgirl, much appreciated :)
ReplyDeleteWhat strikes me most about this article is that it supports a story from Jenna's last post titled, "Producers' Own [Oil] Consumption Rises; Exports About to Plummet."
I bet a lot of people who visit this site know the story behind Cantarell. Is it really going to take $100 oil for people to understand Peak Oil? I'm afraid the answer is yes.
Keep posting those comments. Knowledge is power.
Weak Dollar Gives OPEC Little Incentive to Up Output
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=48207
"The only way to compensate for the weaker dollar is a higher oil price," says Shokri Ghanem, head of Libya's state-run National Oil Co, Africa's largest holder of oil reserves.
At the same time the price of crude has more than tripled, spurred by rising demand, a dearth in global refining capacity and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, Nigeria and Venezuela.
This gives OPEC's Middle East giants like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait little incentive to take action to rein in oil prices as they strive to boost investment and diversify their economies.
Such is the concern about the limp U.S. dollar that central bankers in the wealthy Arab Gulf states are now moving to reduce their exposure to the currency.
Blackouts in Southern California
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/07/28/los-angeles-dwp-in-crisis/
Check out the video.
Please also visit the following site for more information:
http://workingcalifornians.com/tags/dwp
Very likely what we will soon see in Mexico is the "net export crisis." After oil production falls to a certain point, Mexico will have no choice but to stop exports and keep all its production at home to prop up the domestic economy for a little longer.
ReplyDeleteHaven't found anything in English on this, but a big story in Japan today is the announcement by the chairman of Gazprom that Russia will give priority to Russian consumers in supplying natural gas from the Sakhalin-1 project. He remarked on the possibility that some of the gas would be exported to Asian countries. Remember that Japan (including the government) has something like a 30% stake in this project. And since the talks with China over the marine gas fields between the two countries are going nowhere fast, this is a shocker for Japan.
ReplyDeleteChina too is counting on gas from Sakhalin-1. Further, the Altai gas pipeline project to China might be postponed. Russia is really putting the skids on energy exports.
It will be interesting to see the results of today's parliamentary elections here in Japan. Although the ruling party could be hurt by the pension scandal, I don't expect a big loss of seats for them. PM Abe has said that he will continue on as PM no matter what the outcome, and that means the onward march toward militarization and partnering with the US in oil wars.
Good stuff Tyler. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThere is an excellent (IMHO) new News site:
The REAL News. Based in Toronto with a cadre of top notch journalists around the globe and headed up by CBC veteran journalist and film producer, Paul Jay, they promise unbiased in depth reporting on the real issues with a specific promise to address climate change.
Real News is member supported and takes no government or corporate money and sells no advertising in order to maintain journalistic integrity.
They have a beta site up and some very impressive video stories and interviews. 2008 will be the launch for 24/7 reporting on the web and an hour long daily news TV show and plan thorough coverage of the US 2008 election campaigns.
They welcome viewer participation and feedback so please check them out, register, and email them about covering PEAK OIL.
If you have a blog, you might mention them. I have their intro video on my blog, as does Isis.
REAL News -- I already asked them to cover peak oil. That was two or three weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteEnergy shortage hampers development in Africa
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/29/news/africa.php
Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (which is certainly not liberal) did take a drubbing in the election, but true to his word, PM Abe has vowed to stay at the helm.
Paul Krugman asks peak oil people to clue him him.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theoildrum.com/node/2816#comment-218738
Water tables falling and rivers running dry
ReplyDeletehttp://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch03_ss2.htm
To peak oil, add pressure to find water and declining agricultural productivity.
rice farmer said "REAL News -- I already asked them to cover peak oil. That was two or three weeks ago."
ReplyDeleteGood for you. I hope others will do the same. They are not doing daily stories yet, and won't until perhaps the end of the year. If enough people raise the issue perhaps they'll cover it. Other North American media sure as hell won't.
Japan: LDP setback sinks amendment dreams
ReplyDelete07/30/2007
BY KOICHIRO HIDAKA, STAFF WRITER
"The Liberal Democratic Party's huge loss in Sunday's election has for the time being dashed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's dream of amending the Constitution.
Abe and the LDP had hoped to amend the Constitution to allow Japan to exercise its right for collective self-defense and enable the Self-Defense Forces to take part in overseas military operations."
article continues Asahi.com
Ah yes, the amendment. I'm glad Pandabondium brought that up! Abe wants to eliminate the Article 9 restriction on military activity. My guess is that this is part of the effort to clear the way for Japan to partner with the US in oil wars. Japan's near-total dependence on oil imports means that even a slight disruption could cripple the economy. As oil availability decreases, countries which can't produce their own will have to take it by force. Surely this is not lost on the LDP leadership. Although this election loss is a setback, they won't give up, and I expect the J gvt will continue to play up the "North Korean threat."
ReplyDeletePeak Oil Documentary Featured on Crooks and Liars
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/07/29/a-crude-awakening/
"Global warming. So what? Melting polar icecaps? Call me later. A Crude Awakening paints a picture so much grimmer than anything Americans have seen in their lifetimes. Or in the movies this summer, for that matter. It is dark. It is primordial. It is terrifying. It is - The end of oil, as we know it.
Now that, my friends, is an inconvenient truth. It is a truth so scary, so inconvenient, that few will even utter its name. Once again, for the record, its name is Peak Oil. And no one seems to have the slightest idea what to do about it."
Personally I'll be emailing John Amato and thanking him for featuring this important documentary.
The Raw Story - New Homeland Security (sic) regs require airlines to collect more personal info on passengers which will be shared with the USA and EU (and later other countries, they hope). Info now includes - racial/ethnic info; political opinions; religious/philosophical beliefs; union membership; health; traveling partners; sexual orientation. The data will be kept in their files for FIFTEEN YEARS.
ReplyDeleteI am reminded of the last line from Bob Dylan's song On the Road Again:
"Then you ask why I don't live here, honey, how come you don't move?"
OPEC chief: Oil $7 over value
ReplyDeleteCartel not 'comfortable' with barrel of crude costing over $80 or under $50.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/30/news/international/bc.opec.badri.reut/index.htm
Current oil prices are inflated by around $7 per barrel because of concerns about supply security, OPEC's Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri was reported as saying in a newspaper interview on Monday.
"I presume that prices are currently around $7 per barrel above the real market value," Badri was quoted as saying when asked how much supply concerns were pushing up prices in an interview with Austrian newspaper WirtschaftsBlatt.
He said OPEC did not plan to reintroduce an official price band for oil, but added: "I believe I can say that we feel comfortable if the oil price doesn't fall below $50. A price above $80 wouldn't please us either."
-----
$80 oil lurks
Growing demand, tight supplies, turbulent geopolitics, hurricane season - a witches brew for crude prices.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/11/markets/oil_outlook/index.htm